Why does Yasir Arafat always prevaricate? Why doesn't he finally give up the illusion of defeating Israel militarily and accept the need for a political solution? According to Mishal. Arafat's "yes-no" policy of relying simultaneously "on a political process he does not trust and on an armed struggle whose outcome is increasingly doubtful" makes sense: given the realities of Israeli policy toward the PLO and the views of PLO members, anything more decisive would entail more dangers than gains, Arafat knows what he is doing: the yes-no policy and the preference for relying on third parties (such as the United States) "may preclude the chance of a rapid solution to the Palestinian problem, Yet if offers Arafat's followers hope that something may be saved rather than all being lost." We may, therefore, expect the PLO to pursue this approach for yet many years,
Unfortunately, Mishal, author of an earlier book about the Palestinians in Jordan, treats the PLO as though it were in a political isolation ward. He ignores some of the most salient factors in its decision-making - such as the influence of its patrons, the Arab governments, and the venality of its leaders. As a consequence, his analysis has an unreal quality. Put differently, this well-informed and intelligent investigation contains too much political science and too little political reality.
