"Of all Soviet-backed national liberation movements, that concerned with the national liberation of the Azeris of Iran is the oldest and the most significant." Although the Azeris (a Turkic-speaking people) number 12 million in Iran and only 6 million across the border in the Soviet Union, Moscow has already twice this century established regimes in Iranian Azerbaijan — the Gilan Soviet Republic of 1920-21 and the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic of 1945-46 — in an effort to wrest this territory from Iran.
Nissman shows that the Soviets had high hopes for a third republic after the shah fell in 1979. Exploiting both sentiments of Azeri nationalism and the quasi-anarchy in Iran during the 1979-1981 period, the Soviets called for "One Azerbaijan," and a break by Iranian Azeris from Iran. This message had powerful resonance; so the Iranian authorities shut down communications with the Soviet Union in 1981, and (for the third time) ended the Soviet threat. As a result, Nissman does not foresee the Soviets achieving their goals in Iran's Azerbaijan except through the use of force. Indeed, the whole Soviet plan may backfire, for permission to Soviet Azeris to express a longing for One Azerbaijan may awaken nationalist feelings that will come back to haunt Moscow.
