The IAEA did not find Iranian violations of the nuclear program; so, why did President Trump step out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran?
Because he – and a plurality of Americans – saw the deal as too narrow (it does not touch on other Iranian misbehavior), with too poor verification mechanisms, and leading ultimately to the Iranians legitimately acquiring nuclear weapons. It is a deal based on Iranian goodwill, honesty, and lack of interest in building nuclear bombs. As such, it is pure idiocy.
What are the consequences of the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal?
We do not know how Tehran will respond, making this question difficult to answer. For example, it has a choice between continuing to abide by the limitations of the JCPOA or not. It can escalate the warfare with Israel or not. It can start a new front with Saudi Arabia or not. The rulers in Tehran face major choices.
What is your response to the Iranian leader who declared that "the United States has violated an international treaty"?
Obviously, there is no treaty. The U.S. Congress must endorse treaties and it very much did not endorse the JCPOA. So, just as Obama unilaterally signed it, Trump had the right unilaterally to un-sign it. There was no violation. This amounts to another Iranian fabrication.
Is war between Iran and Israel a possibility?
It has already begun, with the Iranians sending over an armed drone and then shooting 20 rockets at Israel. The question now is whether the Iranians will escalate. As recent hostilities suggest, they are poor at conventional warfare, so if they wish to escalate, they will either mobilize jihadi violence or the huge number of rockets and missiles belonging to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Russia and China will not quit the deal. How about the Europeans, Germany, France, and Great Britain?
I expect them all to stay in the deal, being primarily interested in making money from trade with Iran, and the deal enables this. All these states engage in amoral, greed-based foreign policies.
In your opinion, what new challenges might Iran's neighbors face after the US withdraws from the nuclear deal?
Iran's neighbors will probably feel less pressure from Tehran due to the mullahs' increased economic difficulties resulting from the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA.
What about a U.S. invasion of Iran - possible?
Yes, if you mean destruction of the nuclear infrastructure. No, if you mean regime change. Americans have no taste for that after the Afghanistan and Iraq efforts. Further, Trump made it clear he seeks to reach a new deal with the authorities in Tehran: "they are going to want to make a new and lasting deal, one that benefits all of Iran and the Iranian people. When they do, I am ready, willing, and able [to negotiate]." This does not point to regime change.
