Question: What are the implications of the Israel-UAE joint statement for Gulf countries, West Asia, and the Muslim world?
Answer: It strengthens moderate governments while weakening Iran, Qatar, and Turkey; and it reduces the appeal of Islamism. Not a bad range of implications.
Q: Do you think the other Muslim states will join Egypt, Jordan, and now the UAE in opening relations with Israel?
A: Yes, a number of leaders have spoken about doing so, including those in Bahrain, Oman, Lebanon, and Morocco. One problem, though: while the Emiratis could deliver something high profile for the Palestinians (ending Israeli annexation plans for the West Bank), this is now done, leaving little the others can offer to justify their deals. In this sense the early Emirati bird got the worm.
Q: What are the implications of this deal for the Palestine cause?
A: It's another signal to the Palestinian Authority and Hamas that their cause is losing Arab and Muslim appeal. Increasingly, they look for support to the global Left rather than to fellow Muslims: that is, Sweden, Scotland, and Spain replace Saudi Arabia, Somalia, and Sudan.
Q: What is the future of the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative which offered to normalize relations in return for Israel returning to its June 1967 boundaries?
A: I was convinced from the very first in 2002 that this plan would fail. And while it has lasted much longer than I predicted, I still expect it to fail. Israel is not going back to what were once called the Auschwitz borders.
Q: The joint statement says that annexation of parts of the West Bank is "suspended," Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahusays it's still on the table, but Trump says it's defunct: what do these differences mean?
A: Netanyahu himself stated in early August that the fate of annexation depends on Trump. Trump has now spoken. Annexation is no longer an issue.
Q: What is the future of two-state solution?
A: Ultimately, in the distant future when Palestinians have for many years given up their goal of eliminating the Jewish state, it could happen. For now, however, it is irrelevant because it assumes Palestinians accept Israel's existence when they overwhelmingly do not.
Q: The Iranian and Turkish governments vociferously oppose the joint statement; what can they do to prevent normalization?
A: Not much beyond fiery speeches. The more serious threats – sabotage, aerial attacks, ground invasion – look too expensive for them to try.
Q: Does the joint statement alter alignments and hostilities in the region?
A: It confirms changes long underway. For decades, Islamism has been replacing Israel as West Asia's most important division. Already in 1987, I commented on this shift, noting that "the Arabs' conflict with Israel is essentially peripheral to most of them" and that Iran presented a much greater threat. That is all the truer today, as Islamists face off against non-Islamists, with Israel one element of the non-Islamist faction.
