I commend Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser for his subtle and knowledgeable analysis. That said, I believe his plan makes Hamas potentially more, not less, dangerous to Israel.
He advocates that Israel end the Hamas threat "by disarming it, prohibiting its rearmament, and demonstrating conclusively that threatening Israel is indisputably against its interests." This will leave Hamas "weakened and deterred vis-à-vis Israel, but strong enough to govern Gaza." Should the Government of Israel implement the Kuperwasser plan, Hamas can no longer torment Israelis in nearby towns like Sderot with rockets, nor set their agricultural fields on fire with weaponized kites, balloons, and condoms, nor launch rockets to stop a parade in Jerusalem. This has obvious appeal to an Israeli population that is under siege but dreads going back into Gaza after the unilateral withdrawal of 2005.
To which, I reply: Stopping kites, rockets, and missiles is, of course, a gain for Israel. But a Hamas shorn of airborne projectiles while still in control of Gaza becomes roughly an Islamist equivalent of the Palestinian Authority (PA). That gives Hamas great opportunity. Over its nearly thirty years of existence, the Israeli government has permitted the PA to aggress against the country in two main ways: through violence and delegitimization. No matter how horribly the PA acts in these two arenas, Israel's security establishment protects it and the prime minister funds it.
Violence: Assuming the PA precedent holds, Hamas may freely incite, fund, and arm a range of low-level attacks on Israelis, including stonings, knife stabbings, lynchings, car-rammings, shootings, bombings, arson, and full-scale intifadas. Tunnels and suicide drones should also be fine. In short, "disarming" Hamas is an illusion. Violence will continue and could even worsen.
Delegitimization: Noting what the PA says about its "partner for peace," Hamas should enjoy complete liberty to scream out any calumnies it wishes: that Jews descend from pigs and apes, that Zionism represents an imperialist movement of white supremacists subjugating an indigenous people, that Israel oppresses, exploits, and massacres a Christ-like victim population. Further, they can portray Benjamin Netanyahu as the new Hitler, Gaza as a concentration camp, and Palestinians as experiencing fifty Holocausts.
I could stop here, having made my case for the limited benefit of the Kuperwasser plan; it solves one problem but leaves two others untouched. But its implementation could make Hamas even more dangerous to Israel. My reasoning:
Although Palestinian anti-Zionism has been around for over a century (1920: "Palestine is our land and the Jews are our dogs"), it took off in the 1990s when the Left turned against Israel. The 1993 Oslo Accords signed on the White House lawn, no less, created the PA, which convinced the global good and great that it had thereby accepted the Jewish state, making it the darling of world politics. Of course, the PA had done nothing of the sort but now could spread the anti-Zionist message summarized above much more effectively than before.
The 2001 UN Durban conference against "Racism, Racial Discrimination, Xenophobia and Related Intolerance" symbolized this Palestinian version reaching unprecedented prominence and it has grown ever since. As the world's favorite revolutionary cause, Palestinians can call on the sympathies and resources of a unique support network that includes dictators, hard-leftists, far-rightists, the United Nations, other international organizations, and legions of Islamists, journalists, activists, educators, artists, priests, and assorted do-gooders.
 A scene from the 2001 UN Durban conference against "Racism, Racial Discrimination, Xenophobia and Related Intolerance." |
In other words, while Palestinian violence does not pose an existential threat to Israel, Palestinian delegitimization does. In this case, words are more dangerous than explosives. (The opposite holds for Hezbollah and Iran.)
Until now, and unlike the PA, Hamas remains widely shunned as a terrorist organization, and in large part because of those kites, rockets, and missiles. Were Hamas to lose the ability to launch projectiles, its leaders may wish to emulate the PA's trajectory and belatedly sign the Oslo Accords (maybe again on the White House lawn?). Doing so automatically ends the terrorist designation and transmogrifies it too into an international darling. It would thereby add an Islamist message of delegitimization to the PA's nationalist one, greatly speeding and enhancing the reach of Palestinian anti-Zionism.
Israelis, inured by a lifetime of insults, tend to slough off delegitimization as business-as-usual. Vituperation has become whiney background noise. Palestinians barely figure in Israeli politics. Israeli strategist Efraim Inbar colorfully dismisses them as a "strategic nuisance."
As an outsider, I believe Israelis underestimate the growing impact of Palestinian venom. Yes, Israel's products – armaments, high-tech, medical supplies, agricultural methods, water technology – have found a global market. Agreed, its military has no regional rival. But these strengths do not release Israelis from the unfinished business of winning Palestinian acceptance. Until then, Palestinian delegitimization threatens Israel no less than Iranian nuclear weapons.
Thus does the Kuperwasser plan potentially enhance the danger Hamas poses to Israel, trading a more violent but less influential enemy for a less violent but more influential enemy. A projectile-less Hamas that still rules Gaza is a cure worse than the disease.
Mr. Pipes (DanielPipes.org, @DanielPipes) is president of the Middle East Forum. © 2023 by Daniel Pipes. All rights reserved.
Sep. 3, 2023 update: Uzi Rubin points out, in an excellent analysis, that the missile threat from the Palestinian Authority may soon match that of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. That further reinforces my argument here.
