President-elect Donald Trump wants nothing to do with Syria. On December 7, 2024, he wrote that "THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!" (his capital letters).
I disagree. In fact, the U.S. government should help Bashar al-Assad, a brutal, totalitarian dictator, to remain in power. This unhappy example of counter-intuitive Realpolitik follows on the circumstances in Syria.
Simply put, when both sides to a conflict are loathsome, Americans must put aside their usually welcome and instinctive feelings of short-term humanitarianism and instead think strategically. What outcome, they should ask, will do least long-term damage to civilians and to U.S. interests?
As I wrote about Syria in 2013, "Evil forces pose less danger to us when they make war on each other. This (1) keeps them focused locally and it (2) prevents either one from emerging victorious (and thereby posing a yet-greater danger)."
In the prototypical example, the Roosevelt administration correctly helped Stalin against Hitler. It did not do so out of sympathy for the Soviet Union but out of concern that it would fall, thereby augmenting the power of Nazi Germany. Better they should battle each other on the Eastern Front than aggress globally. In similar spirit, the Reagan administration supported Iraq against Iran.
 If Franklin Delano Roosevelt (R) could laugh with Stalin, Biden can save Bashar al-Assad. |
The same logic holds here. As Michael Rubin noted in the MEF Observer,
The choice policymakers must consider is not a strong Assad versus a pluralistic, democratic opposition, or a strong Assad versus a weak Islamist regime; rather, it is a weak Assad ensconced in Damascus or Alawite strongholds along the Mediterranean coast versus an increasingly strong, radical Sunni regime with the worldview of Hamas, if not the Islamic State, but with the full and open backing of Turkey.
Were the insurgent forces to sweep victoriously into Damascus, a Turkish-backed Al-Qaeda off-shoot called Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) would almost certainly dominate the new government. It would enhance the prestige and power of Türkiye's strongman, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. It would boost the otherwise flailing Islamist movement. It would also revitalize the northern front against Israel.
It would, in short, be a disaster.
Far better that the insurgents engage in a protracted fight against a defensive Assad. Consider the advantages: Türkiye on the one hand and all of Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia on the other would be fighting each other instead of the United States and its allies. Any resources dedicated to Syria diminish Putin's forces in Ukraine. Likewise, resources dedicated to Syria diminish Khamene'i's ability to menace Israel. An already emasculated Hezbollah has more troubles rebuilding. HTS remains out of power.
This policy also makes sense from a long-term humanitarian point of view. Yes, it extends the Syrian civil war, now reaching the end of its fourteenth year, with all its attendant atrocities. But peoples of the Middle East will suffer more over time if a new, flamboyant and bellicose HTS regime comes to power in Damascus.
 Damascus, Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham's next destination? |
Supporting Assad means taking several potential steps. Pressuring Türkiye to withhold aid to HTS. Calling on Israel not to respond to appeals from Syrian insurgents for help. Letting aid from Iran reach Syria. Offering Putin a deal to permit him to move forces to Syria if he abandons designated forward positions in Ukraine.
Syria's civil war has entrapped many of America's worst enemies. Let's help them to continue to murder each other.
Mr. Pipes (DanielPipes.org, @DanielPipes) is president of the Middle East Forum and author of Israel Victory: How Zionists Win Acceptance and Palestinians Get Liberated. © 2024 by Daniel Pipes. All rights reserved.
Dec. 7, 2024 addendum: For a fuller version of this argument, see "Support Assad." For the theoretical argument, see "Better Dictators than Elected Islamists."
Dec. 8, 2024 update: My first response to the news that Bashar al-Assad has been overthrown:
Syrian state television announces "The liberation of the city of Damascus, the toppling of the dictator Bashar al-Assad, and the liberation of all oppressed prisoners from the regime's jails."
Me: The heart celebrates, the brain worries.https://t.co/x1fvS7TTtR
— Daniel Pipes دانيال بايبس 🇺🇦 (@DanielPipes) December 8, 2024
