The MidEast and Trump's America

Actualitica: Please assess Donald Trump's domestic policy during the first 100 days of his second term.

Whence arose today's furies: Trump in a New York City courtroom in April 2024.

Daniel Pipes: Trump was radicalized during the four years he was out of power, especially when he humiliatingly sat as a defendant in a bleak courtroom. He returned to the presidency very determined, accompanied by a team devoted to him (several went to jail on his behalf) and no less determined. If a decade ago Trump's political outlook was unclear, today the MAGA (Make America Great Again) set of ideas is specific, cohesive, and ambitious. Aggressively using the powers of the presidency, he focuses on changing the United States, from education to the economy, away from the Democrats. That Trump's team is more angry than competent, however, limits its long-term impact. Indeed, I predict their many errors will revive the Left.

Actualitica: Have Trump's policies further deepened internal liberal-conservative division?

DP: Yes, they have both deepened the division and confused it, for Trump has adopted important policies (supporting labor unions, attacking the pharmaceutical industry, protectionism) associated with the Left.

The poster for the 2024 movie, Civil War.

Actualitica: What do you make of talk of a second U.S. civil war?

DP: Americans think enough about that possibility that a 2024 movie, Civil War, explores the topic. But it remains extremely unlikely, as does the parallel idea of Texas seceding.

Actualitica: Did Russian state institutions significantly help Trump win in 2016?

DP: No, the whole idea is silly. OpenSecrets estimates that Americans spent $2.4 billion on the presidential election. Next to this, any Russian spending was trivial.

Actualitica: How do you see Trump's foreign policy strategy – in particular, the protectionism, the withdrawal from multilateral organizations, the hostility toward friendly governments, and the friendliness toward hostile ones?

DP: The foreign policy analyst Walter Russell Mead observes that, "Despite all the talk about realism and restraint, Mr. Trump has adopted the most ambitious foreign-policy agenda of any American president since Harry S Truman [in 1945-53]." The problem is, Trump has no guiding philosophy, lives in his own mental world (Gaza as Riviera, below), and does not know basic facts (e.g., Ukraine "started" the war with Russia). Some of his key personnel picks (J.D Vance, Tulsi Gabbard, Steve Witkoff) share these shortcomings. In all, Trump's foreign policy tends to scare Americans and please the tyrants in Beijing.

Actualitica: How do you see the resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict?

DP: I published a book on this topic in 2024: Israel Victory: How Zionists Win Acceptance and Palestinians Get Liberated. (For a brief version, click here.) In a sentence, first Israel compels the Palestinians to realize they lost, then both sides move on from the conflict.

Actualitica: Where does Jerusalem, especially the Old City, fit into such a resolution?

DP: It is a mistake to argue over such details in advance of a resolution. For one, we do not know the circumstances, so arguing over specifics is futile. For another, final-status discussions distract from today's urgent priority: ending the conflict. Let's focus on the latter.

Actualitica: Might Jewish radicals demolish Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock to clear the way for the Third Temple?

DP: A tiny number aspire to this but it is more an idea than a plan. This topic serves more as a way to mobilize Muslims against Israel than it represents a real threat.

How "The Third Temple" organization envisions the Third Temple.

Actualitica: If this did happen, would the entire Muslim world rise up and attack Israel?

DP: Not quite that but, recalling the response to the Aug. 21, 1969, arson at the Aqsa Mosque (I was in Israel at the time), the destruction of Islamic sanctities on the Temple Mount would have large and terrible consequences.

Trump's vision of himself and Netanyahu sipping drinks on the Gaza Riviera.

Actualitica: What do you make of Trump's plan to "take over" the Gaza Strip and turn it into the "Riviera of the Middle East"?

DP: It's as ludicrous as it sounds. U.S. troops will expel up to two million Gazans? Name a country that would accept them? Tell me who would invest in newly-emptied Gaza. Partially, this nonsense reflects Trump's real-estate background, partially it displays his ignorance, and partly it confirms that he says any damn thing that comes to mind.

Actualitica: Palestinians make up about half the population of Jordan, and Queen Rania is of Palestinian descent; why can Jordan not become Palestine?

DP: Zionism, the translation of millennial-old Jewish longing for Jerusalem and the Land of Israel into a practical movement, has deeply influenced Palestinians, who now also see land west of the Jordan River as holy and historic. After 150 years of Zionism and nearly as long its Muslim counterpart, the idea of Palestinians accepting Amman as a substitute for Jerusalem is pure fantasy.

Actualitica: Can Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), despite its roots in Al-Qaeda, bring peace to Syria and reunite a fractured country?

DP: I am pessimistic, and for two reasons: the HTS' Islamist ideology alienates many Syrians and Türkiye's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has disturbing ambitions for an anarchic Syria where, unbounded by Türkiye's institutions and laws, he can freely build a jihadist client state.

Actualitica: Is normalization between the State of Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran possible?

DP: Very unlikely, because Khomeini made anti-Zionism fundamental to the IRI's outlook and program, which it has remained for nearly 50 years. In contrast, a post-IRI will probably make normalization with Israel a priority. That said, change never ceases and autocracies are especially unpredictable, so Khamene'i's successor could conceivably change turn off the anti-Zionist vitriol.