After their marathon meeting in Geneva on Sunday, President Clinton was asked if he felt that President Hafez al-Assad of Syria had made a firm commitment to normalize relations with Israel. Without hesitation, Mr. Clinton replied, "The short answer is yes."
Well, maybe. Mr. Assad's record suggests that it is wise to be skeptical about his intentions. As in the bad old days when he was a Soviet client, he still engages in aggressive activities, aimed mostly at Israel, Turkey, Lebanon and the United States. They include the following:- Building up Syrian unconventional military capabilities. Damascus now has thousands of chemical warheads, appears to be on the verge of putting anthrax agents into weapons and is starting nuclear research. Its Scud-C missiles from North Korea can reach most of Israel's population.
- Getting more involved in the drug trade. Top officials participate in trafficking drugs to the West, according to a 1992 Congressional report.
- Sponsoring Lebanese and Palestinian groups that attack Israelis as well as Palestinians who favor Yasir Arafat, and sponsoring the PKK, a Kurdish Marxist group, in its assaults on Turkey.
- Nurturing an alliance with Iran. So close is this bond, the Syrians have distributed counterfeit U.S. currency produced in Iran, according to a report by the House Republican Research Committee.
In short, Mr. Assad's policies have made Syria one of the Middle East's rogue states, along with Libya, Iraq and Iran. No less important, Mr. Assad represses his own people with a harshness second only to Saddam Hussein's.
But while Washington puts pressure on the other rogue states by working to isolate them, it woos Syria. Rather than isolating the regime, it has tried for years to bring Syria into the "family of nations." Our diplomats hold out small bait to encourage cooperation; last month, for example, we permitted Syria to acquire American-made jets. Secretaries of State and other dignitaries regularly travel to Damascus, and now four U.S. Presidents have met with Mr. Assad. Our companies operate in Syria almost without restrictions.
Mr. Assad has avoided the harsh treatment dealt to Muammar el-Qaddafi, Saddam Hussein and Iran's mullahs because he's smarter than they are. He makes gestures at the right time and plays complicated double games. He keeps diplomatic links open and accommodates when necessary.
For example, he has benefited simply by joining the peace process. This permitted him to devour Lebanon in 1991 without a peep from Washington. A few months ago, when Turkey protested Syrian support of PKK terrorism, the Syrians replied with seeming indignation: how can you raise such an issue while we're engaged in the peace process with Israel?
What if Mr. Assad, who said on Sunday that "in honor we shall make peace" with Israel, comes through? Then the Arab-Israeli conflict will be nearly over. While Israel will have to leave the Golan Heights, it will have an opportunity to establish stringent safeguards.
And if Mr. Assad's words in Geneva don't add up to much?
Forced to choose sides, if Mr. Assad wholeheartedly traveled the American route, he would have to close down the anti-Turkish terrorist groups, kick out rejectionist Palestinians, disarm the fundamentalist groups in Lebanon, stop drug-trafficking operations and end the military buildup. If he went down the Iranian path, he would find himself on a collision course with us.
He would probably ask himself this question: Which route better assures me and my co-religionist Alawis of continuing to dominate Syria politics? While the Iranian route would suit his temperament, the American route would hold out more promise.
Our traditional policy of approaching Mr. Assad with great patience and gentle words has produced little more than agreeable promises. If we want real change, Washington may have to adopt the sort of tough policy that this canny despot understands.
Daniel Pipes, director of the Middle East Council, a research organization, is author of Greater Syria and Damascus Courts the West.
