Almost alone among specialists on Iran, Clawson acknowledges the very real threat that country poses to Western interests. He shows convincingly that Iranian "moderates" are defined by their domestic politics, especially their views on economics (pro-free market) and social/cultural policy (less state oriented). In the foreign arena, however, moderates not only share the fundamentalist Muslim vision of their radical colleagues (anti-American, anti-Israeli, anti-Christian minorities, anti-Rushdie, pro-fundamentalist extremist, ready to use terrorism), but they "pose a greater threat to the West than the radicals." In the first place, they are Persian nationalists who want to dominate the area surrounding Iran. Second, they take more practical steps to build up Iranian military strength. Third, they promise a painless prosperity "that will be possible only if Iran can somehow manage to dominate the Persian Gulf's oil supplies."
Clawson also sketches three other worrisome scenarios: Tehran anchors a Syrian-Lebanese-Sudanese rejectionist front against Israel; it allies with Pakistan, thereby gaining nuclear weaponry and merging the Middle East and South Asian conflicts; or it destabilizes Turkey, bringing down the Muslim world's most important and successful secularist state.
The West has three options: bring Iran into the family of nations, apply carrots and sticks, or apply a policy of containment. Clawson makes a powerful case for the last of these: "Tehran's broadsides against the West require equally broad responses."
