Saddam Hussein's will to survive has proven capable of taking a remarkable durability breaks his word and does not allow the weapons inspectors to do their job; or he threatens Kuwait; or he otherwise transgresses. In response, his Middle Eastern neighbors dither, the French and Russians try to find some half-way solution, and the American forces once again gather to punish him. Then, moments before the military operation begins, Saddam backs down and the American forces wend their way home.
Saddam's purpose, and it is not without hope, is to wear the world down. Eventually, he figures, he will transgress and no one will get upset enough to threaten him with force. He will then be free of the sanctions regime that he has had to endure since 1991 and before long will be back in business, manufacturing weapons of mass destruction and threatening not just his neighborhood but the oil of the Persian Gulf. Ideally, he will one day have his hand on the spigot of the world's largest energy source and will then be able not only to gain unimagined riches but his ability to cripple the world economy will give him immeasurable political power.
What to do about this monster and the menace he represents poses and exquisite problem for the United States. To begin with, a basic point needs to be established: it is Saddam Hussein and he alone who bears moral responsibility for the hardship in Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Israel, and wherever else he creates problems. Others, responding to his evil, may well make mistakes, but these are by their nature mistakes of duress. The problem is Saddam Hussein, not those trying to cope with the atrocities he commits.
Now, what to do?
First, Saddam Hussein has shown, like other totalitarian rulers before him, that he has no concept of honor, no sense of what a promise means. His word is worthless. He will say anything he has to get out of a jam, but it has no operational meaning for the long run. He will break his word just as soon as this is convenient to him. He has done this so many times by now - most notably promising to permit weapons inspections to the U.N. secretary-general in February 1998, then breaking his word in August. This suggests that we should watch what Saddam does and ignore what he says. That in turn points to the futility of negotiations with the Baghdad regime. Instead, we should only keep an eye on what he does.
Second, the cycle of "cheat and retreat" must be broken. Saddam cannot be permitted to decide when he will cause a crisis, only to back down at the precipitous moment. He needs to be shown (not told - remember, words mean nothing to him) that this will cause him acute pain. The pain needs to be calibrated.
Third, Saddam Hussein has succeeded in shifting the blame for starvation and economic collapse in Iraq from his own shoulders to ours. To counter this, Western leaders need to explain the situation and why he is the only who can improve the standard of living in Iraq. (September 30, 1998)
