I have been arguing for some time – most notably in "A Neo-Conservative's Caution," that "a too-quick removal of tyranny unleashes Islamist ideologues and opens their way to power"; this has also been the subject of my ongoing blog, article, and in-person debate with Reuel Gerecht.
I can't claim that anyone in Washington has paid attention to me on this one. But perhaps the reality principle will bring about the second thoughts that mere argumentation cannot effect. That, at least, is the implication of an article by Jonathan Wright of Reuters on the administration's response to the current elections in Egypt, where the Islamists are doing predictably very well and its preferred secular parties, the Ghad and Wafd, have done poorly.
Wright notes that "this outcome has given the Bush administration pause and strengthened the hand of those in Washington who value stability over democracy." He discerns a change in tone in public statements from the White House and U.S. State Department, which he characterizes as having "largely fallen silent on Egypt after frequent comments on the presidential elections in September."
He quotes Mohamed el-Sayed Said, deputy director of Al-Ahram's Political and Strategic Studies Centre in Cairo: "The Americans have reassessed the situation and come to the conclusion that fast and vigorous democratization in Egypt is impossible and will work in an undesirable way." Saad Eddin Ibrahim, a sociologist at the American University in Cairo, points out how U.S. pressure to release political prisoners ended up helping the Muslim Brethren, as some of those freed had important roles in the political campaign. Ibrahim also finds that U.S. officials were "very disappointed" at the poor electoral showing of the secular parties.
Comment: Democratization is undoubtedly the right U.S. policy, but it must be implemented slowly, cautiously, and always with the Hippocratic Oath ("Do no harm") firmly in mind. (November 22, 2005)
Nov. 23, 2005 update: The blogger at Right Wing Nation points out in a posting titled "Mysterious Nameless Sources of Information" that the above-cited news item lacks any hard evidence to suggest that the Bush administration is in fact reconsidering its enthusiastic support for rapid democratization. He has a point.
Nov. 27, 2005 update: The Associated Press published an analysis, "Egypt Elections May Worry West," that replicates the worries of the Reuters piece, but also lacks specifics. "Some U.S. officials argue … that the only way to demythologize groups like the [Muslim] Brotherhood is to bring them into a legal political system and let people judge them on how they actually govern. Still, there is American discomfort with the Brotherhood, a group that will almost certainly be less accommodating than Mubarak on issues like Israel and that advocates the veil for women." Then follows an older quote from Elizabeth Cheney, deputy assistant secretary of state (and the vice president's daughter), saying there are "serious questions" about whether the Brotherhood will respect women's rights and religious freedom on taking power.
Dec. 8, 2005 update: Here's more solid evidence for a reconsideration underway, again concerning Egypt, from Eli Lake in the New York Sun.
When asked about the violence and intimidation so severe in the last round of voting that some members of the Muslim Brothers had to use ladders in order to enter the second story of a polling station whose entrance on the ground was blocked by the police, Foggy Bottom gave the election thieves a pass. On December 1, a State Department spokesman, Sean McCormack, said he had seen the reports, and noted the importance of having a political environment whereby voters did not feel threatened. But in a gift for the regime here, he said, "I am sure that the Egyptian government is committed to providing that environment." After judges and independent election monitors contradicted this assessment, the State Department revised its earlier opinion. On December 7, the deputy spokesman, Adam Ereli, said, "Clearly these actions send the wrong signal about Egypt's commitment to democracy and freedom." …
By December 1, the association of judges overseeing the voting threatened to pull their people out of the polling stations because in many instances police were dispatched to block citizens from going to the polls. The police shot rubber bullets at demonstrators, phony voting lists were submitted by the ruling party, and all manner of chicanery was employed in what looked like a coordinated effort to steal the election. One can suppose that this sort of thing should be expected from Mr. Mubarak. But what is extraordinary is that on December 1, Washington was essentially silent. America's strongest voice, the one that proudly declares the universality of our freedoms and offers unconditional support for those who seek them, was mute. The State Department last week was doing damage control.
Jan. 17, 2006 update: A New York Sun article quotes a couple of my colleagues are coming around to my point of view that the Bush administration is rushing to elections. Michael Rubin says "The Bush Doctrine is correct, but the implementation is lousy." Ron Dermer worries that the Bush doctrine "has come to mean having elections as soon as possible."
Apr. 10, 2006 update: A survey of democratization efforts in the Arabic-speaking countries suggests that the headlong rush to elections is slowing down, finds Hassan M. Fattah in the New York Times.
In Egypt, the government of President Hosni Mubarak, which allowed a contested presidential election last year, has delayed municipal elections by two years after the Muslim Brotherhood made big gains in parliamentary elections late last year, despite the government's violent efforts to stop the group's supporters.
In Jordan, where King Abdullah II has made political change and democratization mandates, proponents see their hand weakened, with a document advocating change put on the back burner.
Parliamentary elections in Qatar were postponed again, to 2007, while advocacy groups say that laws regulating the emergence of nongovernmental organizations have stymied their development.
In Yemen, the government has cracked down on the news media ahead of presidential elections this year, intimidating journalists who had been considered overcritical of the government.
In Saudi Arabia, King Abdullah has refused calls that the country's consultative council be elected, while the arrest last month of Muhsin al-Awaji, a government critic, raised questions about how far the country's newfound openness would go. …
in Syria, promises for reforms have been followed by a harsh crackdown on the opposition. …
In Bahrain, where sectarian tensions between the majority Shiite population and the Sunni-dominated government prevail, a flurry of official maneuvers apparently intended to reduce the Shiite vote has preceded the municipal and parliamentary elections expected this year.
Part of the reason for this slowing down is diminished pressure coming out of Washington. For example, it "expressed only mild disapproval over the February announcement of the delay of municipal elections" in Egypt. A spokesman for the Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood , Essam el-Erian, ascribes the lessening of U.S. pressure to the electoral success of Islamists: "America had a problem with violent Islamic groups because of a lack of democracy in the region, but when people choose nonviolent Islamic groups, they don't want to deal with it." Let's hope he is right.
Jan. 17, 2006 update: A New York Sun article quotes a couple of my colleagues are coming around to my point of view that the Bush administration is rushing to elections. Michael Rubin says "The Bush Doctrine is correct, but the implementation is lousy." Ron Dermer worries that the Bush doctrine "has come to mean having elections as soon as possible."
May 26, 2006 update: In a bitter piece today, Danielle Pletka and Michael Rubin interpret the recent resumption of full diplomatic relations with Libya as marking "an effective end to the Bush doctrine" for the expansion of freedom in all the world.
June 27, 2006 update: Joshua Muravchik concludes in an evocatively-titled article, "A Democracy Policy in Ashes" that "the Bush administration has begun to pull its punches on Middle East democracy."
