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Comments on a Decent Gaza

by Daniel Pipes

updated Nov 14, 2024

https://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2023/10/comments-on-a-decent-outcome-in-gaza

I published an article today, "A Decent Outcome Is Possible in Gaza" arguing that "upon seizing control of Gaza, Israel can reasonably expect to find plenty of residents ready to work with the new authority to create an administration that could return them to normal life."

The following entries provide further information pertinent to this prospect.

(1) A June 2023 poll commissioned by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy asked "How do Palestinians—the people themselves, not their leaders—see the potential of Saudi normalization" with Israel? It found that,

on this question—as with many others—attitudes sharply diverge between the West Bank and Gaza. Two-thirds of West Bank residents reject this proposal to normalize ties in the face of a Saudi-Israeli deal. But turn instead to Gaza, and attitudes are split: 50% of Gazans would support normalizing relations with Israel were Riyadh to do so. Strikingly, 21% of Gazans agree strongly with this idea—statistically equivalent to the 23% of Gazans who strongly disagree.

Asked about the impact on the region of the Abraham Accords, 47 percent of Gazans say they have had at least a somewhat positive impact. Asked if they agree with the statement, "I hope someday we can be friends with Israelis, since we are all human beings after all," 42 percent of Gazans assented.

Three-quarters of Gazans support Arab governments taking "a more active role in Palestinian-Israeli peacemaking, offering incentives to both sides to take more moderate positions." As for Jerusalem, 73 percent of Gazans say Saudi Arabia should have some role in the city's future.

Half of Gazans agree that Hamas should "stop calling for the destruction of Israel and instead accept a permanent two-state solution based on the 1967 borders." Asked if they support a resumption of negotiations with Israel, 58 percent indicated they did.

(2) Private information indicates that the Israelis are thinking along the lines I sketched out above. Publicly, however, they are signaling the opposite. Thus, Gilad Erdan, Israel's UN ambassador, said "We're not thinking now what will happen the day after the war. ...We need to win this war and that's the only thing we're focused on."

(3) Joe Biden has correctly observed that "A significant portion of Palestinian people do not share the views of Hamas."

(4) This may come as a surprise, but the Oslo Accords offer a basis for renewal in Gaza. Days after the accords were signed, the Multilateral Steering Group of the multilateral talks on Middle East peace established the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee (AHLC) as the principal coordination mechanism on policy and political matters related to economic development in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The AHLC subsequently established the Local Aid Coordination Committee (LACC) to devolve the donor coordination process.

The LACC in turn established twelve sub-committees, known as Sector Working Groups to cover agriculture, education, employment creation, environment, health, infrastructure and housing, institution-building, police, private sector, public finance, tourism, and transport and telecommunications. Israel can now revive a version of those Sector Working Groups. (October 17, 2023)

Oct. 18, 2023 update: Shirit Avitan Cohen writes in Israel Hayom that during a War Cabinet meeting, "the ministers decided not to address the question of what would happen next: Who will rule the Gaza Strip; what will this look like; and what Israel's role will be in that constellation."

Oct. 20, 2023 update: Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced the post-Hamas "creation of a new security regime in the Gaza Strip, the removal of Israel's responsibility for day-to-day life in the Gaza Strip, and the creation of a new security reality for the citizens of Israel and the residents of the [area surrounding Gaza]." Excellent news.

Oct. 23, 2023 update: In a powerful analysis, Robert Satloff writes:

As an inveterate optimist, I hope that out of this crisis comes opportunity. Perhaps this opportunity is eventually to make in Gaza a reasonably well-functioning administration that puts first the needs of its citizens, and not the ideology of its rulers.

Sadly, his next sentence undermines this hope: "Maybe this is to repair the dysfunctional Palestinian Authority, so that it can one day assume its rightful responsibility as ruler of Gaza and peace partner with Israel."

Oct. 25, 2023 update: (1) An Arab Barometer survey of Gazans completed just before Oct. 7 finds that

rather than supporting Hamas, the vast majority of Gazans have been frustrated with the armed group's ineffective governance as they endure extreme economic hardship. Most Gazans do not align themselves with Hamas's ideology, either. Unlike Hamas, whose goal is to destroy the Israeli state, the majority of survey respondents favored a two-state solution with an independent Palestine and Israel existing side by side.

67 percent of Gazans do not trust Hamas versus 29 percent who do trust it, or more than 2-to1 negative.

An article in Foreign Affairs further elaborates:

a plurality of survey respondents (31 percent) identified government mismanagement as the primary cause of food insecurity in Gaza and 26 percent blamed inflation. Only 16 percent blamed externally imposed economic sanctions. In short, Gazans were more likely to blame their material predicament on Hamas's leadership than on Israel's economic blockade. ...

Overall, 73 percent of Gazans favored a peaceful settlement to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. On the eve of Hamas's October 7 attack, just 20 percent of Gazans favored a military solution that could result in the destruction of the state of Israel.

(2) Jonathan Rynhold and Toby Greene want to bring the Palestinian Authority into Gaza - a horrible idea - but they have good, practical ideas of working with Gazans going forward: "Israel must plan now how it can incorporate elements of the existing bureaucracy into a stable post-Hamas political order."

(3) Lewis Libby and Douglas J. Feith have the right idea:

there are surely ... Gazans who oppose Hamas tyranny, regretting the 15 years of waste and oppression Hamas has inflicted on Gaza and hoping to build better lives. Many presumably want to live peacefully beside Israel and are horrified that in their name Hamas murders, rapes, and kidnaps Israeli civilians, drawing IDF fire upon their homes. ... For them, the coming months will surely bring suffering, but will also present an opportunity. ...

Seldom in history has an oppressed people had such strong prospects of outside help as the Gazans have. Americans, Europeans, and others would eagerly assist 2 million Gazans who take a stand for a new, honest government that respects its people and favors peace through mutual compromise with Israel. Israel would help, too.

Oct. 27, 2023 update: Natan Sharansky: Israel's security can be assured only by a free Palestinian society, in which people "enjoy a normal life, normal freedom, the opportunity to vote and have their own human rights." But his plan is unrealistic: "An international body - comprised, preferably, of Saudis and Emiratis ('all those rich countries who recognize our right to exist) - would have to help the Palestinians build "an independent economy, a normal education, normal housing, a civil society."

Nov. 1, 2023 update: And now, for a completely original idea.

Nov. 2, 2023 update: (1) H, a former resident of the Shejaiya neighborhood in Gaza City, now in exile: When Gazans saw what Yahya Sinwar did on Oct. 7, "they were surprised and afterward they began to say he was a fool and a madman. People are very tired of war. It's enough – how much more? Enough. We know that Hamas started this war, what [Hamas leader Yahya] Sinwar did was suicidal."

(2) U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinkin endorsed something potentially along the lines of what I proposed: "We can't have a reversion to the status quo, with Hamas running Gaza. We also can't have ... Israel running or controlling Gaza. ... In between those ... are a variety of possible permutations that we're looking at very closely now."

(3) Joseph Braude reports on the "Voices of Gaza" project of the Center for Peace Communications. Select quotes from Gazans:

  • "When Hamas distributes the aid, only Hamas members get the aid." The same applies to Gaza's healthcare system, where "Hamas families get preferential treatment" and even the most urgent needs of others "could be delayed for a long time so that Hamas loyalists are treated first."
  • "Hamas bears responsibility for all the wars, but we're the ones who pay the price."
  • "Ending Hamas is the demand of young and old alike in Gaza."
  • "We welcome any change that will save us from this indignation called Hamas."

Braude concludes: "In drawing attention to Gazan voices opposed to Hamas, we aim to show that a different, brighter, and more peaceful future is possible—one that merits international support—because of the Palestinians in Gaza who yearn and strive for it. As one of the speakers, who you can hear below, in our original series put it, "The makings of our dream are all here."

Nov. 3, 2023 update: (1) Gershon Baskin, a far-left Israeli with many connections in Gaza: "Had Palestinian elections been held prior to October 7, it is highly doubtful that Hamas would have gained more than 30% of the vote – even less in Gaza than in the West Bank because in Gaza they have experienced 17 years of Hamas rule."

(2) Amaney Jamal, Princeton University: In Gaza, about 67 percent have little or no trust in Hamas. If presidential elections were held today only about a quarter said that they would vote for Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas.

Nov. 5, 2023 update: During a live Al Jazeera interview in Gaza, an unnamed, elderly, wounded Gazan is asked by a reporter if the Israeli bombing surprised him:

Yes. It was not one house that was bombed. An entire compound was erased. Over 15 or 20 houses. Is this a humane act? No, this is a criminal act. As for the Resistance [i.e., Hamas] – they come and hide among the people. Why are they hiding among the people? They can go to hell and hide there.

Nov. 6, 2023 update: An unnamed Israeli official said in a Hebrew-language briefing with Israeli reporters at the military headquarters in Tel Aviv: "I don't see any situation in which Israel doesn't have ultimate security responsibility in Gaza." He added that after Hamas is toppled, "it won't be enough to do just a rehabilitation of Gaza. It must go through a process of de-Nazification."

Nov. 7, 2023 update: Benjamin Netanyahu: "Israel for an indefinite period will have the overall security responsibility."

Nov. 8, 2023 update: (1) According to the Wall Street Journal, Egypt's President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi rejected a U.S. proposal that his government "manage security in the Gaza Strip until the Palestinian Authority can take over after Hamas's defeat." So, scratch that idea.

(2) UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly: "As soon as practicable, a move towards a peace-loving Palestinian leadership is the most desired outcome" in Gaza.

(3) Benny Gantz suggested the Government of Israel has no idea what comes next: "Once the Gaza area is safe, and the northern area will be safe, and the Judea and Samaria region [West Bank] will calm down, we will sit down and review an alternative mechanism for Gaza. I do not know what it will be."

Nov. 10, 2023 update: Prime Minister Netanyahu offered the outline of his plans:

What we have to see is Gaza demilitarized, deradicalized and rebuilt. All of that can be achieved. We don't seek to conquer Gaza. We don't seek to occupy Gaza. And we don't seek to govern Gaza. In the foreseeable future... We have to have a credible force that, if necessary, will enter Gaza and kill the killers. That's what will prevent the emergence of another Hamas-like entity.

Nov. 11, 2023 update: (1) Netanyahu specifies a bit more: " "Gaza will be demilitarized, and there will be no threat to the state of Israel. The IDF will continue to maintain security control in the Gaza Strip to prevent terrorism."

(2) A pro-Hamas reporter asks a young girl in Gaza about the "resistance" and gets a surprise reply: "Hamas is putting the people of Gaza in danger. Its fighters are hiding in the tunnels, while Gazan civilians are the victims."

Nov. 12, 2023 update: (1) Reports from Gaza indicate that resentment against Hamas is growing:

Across Gaza, rare scenes of dissent are playing out. Some Palestinians are openly challenging the authority of Hamas, which long has ruled the enclave with an iron fist, in scenes unimaginable just a month ago. Four Palestinians across Gaza spoke to AP on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals about what they've seen.

A man who was told off by a Hamas officer for cutting the bread line took a chair and smashed it over his head, according to an aid worker in line. In another area, angry crowds hurled stones at Hamas police who cut in front of a water line and beat them with their fists until they scattered, according to a journalist there.

Over the past few nights in Gaza City, Hamas rockets streaming overhead toward Israel have prompted outbursts of rage from a UN shelter. In the middle of the night, hundreds of people shouted insults against Hamas and cried out that they wanted the war to end, according to a 28-year-old sleeping in a tent there with his family.

And during a televised press conference Tuesday, a young man with a dazed expression and bandaged wrist pushed his way through the crowd, disrupting a speech by Iyad Bozum, spokesman for the Hamas-run Interior Ministry. "May God hold you to account, Hamas!" the man yelled, shaking his wounded hand.

(2) Shaul Bartal of the BESA Center foresees two stages after Israeli forces seize Gaza: First, "the establishment of a full Israeli military government over the entire Gaza Strip ... a temporary government aimed at ensuring peace and security until a regional solution receives international support."

The second stage, following the establishment of the military government, is for Israel to seek the integration of local and regional forces, including military forces, into the newly formed government. This would mainly include local Palestinian elements, Egyptians, and additional regional countries with an interest in maintaining security stability in the region.

Nov. 14, 2023 update: From Aimen Dean:

Al-Jazeera TV was asking this poor wounded old Palestinian man to give his eyewitness testimony; he said: what's happening is criminal! Why is the resistance (Hamas) hiding among us? Why don't they go to hell and hide there? They are not resistance!!

The journalist cut him off!

Nov. 16, 2023 update: Israel's President Isaac Herzog: "If we pull back, then who will take over? We can't leave a vacuum. We have to think about what will be the mechanism; there are many ideas that are thrown in the air."

Nov. 17, 2023 update: (1) Benjamin Netanyahu on Israel's goals in Gaza: "Destroying Hamas, returning our hostages, and assuring a different future in Gaza, different from the one that we had before."

(2) Jason D. Hill, professor of philosophy at DePaul University: "We may have to think of the future of Gaza in terms of temporary or permanent trusteeship, military occupation, annexation, or rehabilitative colonization."

Nov. 19, 2023 update: (1) Jeff Jacoby, Boston Globe columnist: "A new Israeli administration in the territory, explicitly committed to nourishing a healthy civil society, is the best option for paving a path to effective and peaceful self-rule. Countless Palestinians, chafing under Hamas autocracy in Gaza, have long yearned for a better and freer life. Now there is a chance for them to achieve it. Once Israel has won its war, they and their Palestinian neighbors together can win the peace."

(2) Khalil Shikaki, head of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research: "Israel will find essentially no one willing to step in to replace the Israeli army, including the Palestinian Authority. In the short term ... Israel will have no choice but to run the affairs of 2.2 million Palestinians living in Gaza. I can't see any other alternative."

(3) Henry Kopel, U.S. analyst, endorses "nation-building" in Gaza to build a "governance structure in Gaza that prioritizes the well-being of the territory's civilians."

(4) In a typical article of despair, the Economist asks "What happens to Gaza after the war?" and has absolutely no good ideas, predicting that Gaza will become "another of the Middle East's failed states, broken but never rebuilt."

Nov. 20, 2023 update: Ghadir Hani, a Muslim Israeli citizen:

I have many memories from my visits to the kibbutzim on the border, where together we planned initiatives with partners inside Gaza who, with great courage and great risk to their own lives, reached out to us to communicate their belief in peace. They told me how hard life was in Gaza, in a prison surrounded by fences. Hamas's cruel hold has oppressed anyone who dares to believe in a different future for [Gazans].

Nov. 22, 2023 update: Mark Regev, senior adviser to the prime minister: "Israel has no desire to occupy or rule Gaza but Gaza must be in peace with its neighbours and run by a Palestinian government that will work for the welfare of all the people of Gaza."

Nov. 24, 2023 update: A poll commissioned by The Jewish People Policy Institute on November 15-18 finds 21 percent of Israelis endorsing a Palestinian government in Gaza that is neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority.

Nov. 25, 2023 update: Baruch Yedid writes at "Arab Countries Seek Post-War Gaza That is 'Neither Abbas Nor Hamas'" that Arab leaders

are promoting a plan for post-war Gaza ruled by "neither Abbas nor Hamas," which is being welcomed in Washington, the Tazpit Press Service has learned.

In talks hosted by Qatar and elsewhere, senior Arab officials are promoting the goal of establishing a new Palestinian body to rule the Gaza Strip, ruling out a return of the Mahmoud Abbas-led Palestinian Authority.

These countries are pressuring Hamas to clear the way to allow the rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip while explicitly threatening that under Hamas the countries will refrain from any involvement and assistance in the rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip.

"One dollar will not flow as long as you control the Gaza Strip, the leadership of Hamas was told," an Arab source told the TPS, adding that the Arab countries are equally pressuring Abbas to vacate his place to allow the establishment of a new Palestinian body, which will take over the responsibility for the management of the Gaza Strip.

The new Palestinian body would be tasked with rebuilding Gaza under the auspices of significant economic aid from the Arab and Gulf countries, with Qatar playing a possible leading role.

Dec. 2, 2023 update: Al-Jazeera's man-in-the-street interview went awry when the man replied to a question about massacres with "There is a massacre of civilians, these are children. They are all little children. May Allah settle the score with Qatar and Turkey ..." at which point the reporter took the microphone back and pushed the man away, even as the man continued to talk.

Dec. 6, 2023 update: (1) Israel's Channel 12 reports about Gazans increasingly expressing anger at Hamas. As summarized by the Times of Israel:

The Tuesday [Dec. 5] report showed footage of clashes between Hamas operatives and civilians over supplies, with the civilians yelling expletives at the gunmen. Arab affairs reporter Ehud Yaari noted that such scenes have become increasingly common.

The network also cited conversations with Gazans inside the Strip who said residents "are praying that Israel will destroy Hamas and are saying it out loud." Reporter Ohad Hemo said that among those evacuated to Rafah in the Strip's south, the greeting "May God take revenge upon Hamas" has become common.

The reporters stressed, however, that these negative sentiments have not translated into action.

(2) Al-Jazeera interviewed an elderly Palestinian woman standing outside Nasser Hospital in Khan Yunis in a live broadcast today:

Interviewer: "You know that all the people here cannot find anything to eat or drink?"

Woman: "Yes, everybody is suffering."

Interviewer: "The situation is difficult. No aid is coming in."

Woman: "All the aid goes to the [tunnels] underground. It does not reach all the people. ... We came here from Gaza City. All the aid is meant for us. I am not afraid [of Hamas]. I am talking to them as well. All the aid reaches the Gaza Strip, and ..."

Interviewer: "A lot of aid is coming. It is being distributed. This is what they say."

Woman: "Hamas takes everything to their homes. They can take me, shoot me, or do whatever they want to me."

Dec. 9, 2023 update: An anonymous article in the Daily Beast, "Robbed, Silenced, and Betrayed: Why Gazans Turned Away From Hamas" starts this way:

It is incredibly difficult for them to say so in public, but many Palestinians in Gaza are furious with Hamas, their de facto rulers who invited a brutal Israeli backlash by launching the Oct. 7 attacks.

The Daily Beast was told to stop reporting and forced to delete videos while working on this story, but we can report that residents of Gaza say they have been robbed, silenced, and betrayed by Hamas.

After telling about a sneaky way Hamas stole gold jewelry and mobile telephones, the story contains these quotes:

  • Hasan Ahmed, 39: "There is no democracy in Gaza when you want to speak against Hamas or its de facto government. We fear they will arrest us during the war, or after the war if we spoke against them. They can easily kill us even, and tell the world we are spies."

  • Salam Tareq, 33: "Thieves are spreading in our area. They are going to the evacuated houses, even the partially destroyed ones, and they steal everything possible. Canned food, wheat packages, gas cylinders, solar energy panels to sell in the market. ... Even inside Gaza City, thieves are using knives to threaten those who come back to their cars and take their food by force. One of our neighbors was stabbed by one of the street thieves."

  • Um Ahmed, 55: "Hamas has lost support in Gaza."

Dec. 10, 2023 update: Yousef al-Mansi, a former "communications minister" for Hamas surrendered and criticized the Hamas leadership, especially Yahya Sinwar, in a video of his interrogation published by the Israeli government today. Excerpts:

They destroyed the Gaza Strip. Set it back 200 years. There is no opportunity to live. ... People in the Gaza Strip say that Sinwar and his group destroyed us, we must get rid of them. ... I have not seen anyone in the Gaza Strip who supports Sinwar; nobody likes Sinwar. There are people who, day and night, pray that God will free us from him.

Sinwar has "delusions of grandeur" and "feels like he is above everyone else. Acts only as he thinks. He makes decisions without consulting anyone."

Mansi called the Oct. 7 massacre "the opposite of Islam":

This is heresy, madness. What they did is unacceptable according to logic, religion, or intellect. Those who are responsible for this are Sinwar and his group. ... The achievement of Hamas is killing and the destruction of more than 60 percent of buildings, infrastructure, streets, and public facilities [in the Gaza Strip.

As a result of the fighting, "over 90 percent, 95 percent" of Hamas's Al-Qassam Brigades, its military force, had been decimated, concluding, "Al-Qassam is finished."

Dec. 12, 2023 updates: (1) Muhammad Mansour, a Gazan interviewed on Hebron radio:

I want to convey my message to the Hamas government. May God take revenge on you [and] curse your forefathers. ... May God curse you, O [Yahya] Sinwar, you son of a dog. May God take revenge on you, you've destroyed us. ... We migrated from Gaza [City] to Khan Yunis, and from Khan Yunis to Rafah. We were scattered, us and our family, our wives, our children. Give the [Israeli] prisoners [back to Israel], these dogs who are in your possession. ... Sinwar is underground, hiding together with [Muhammad] Deif and all the disgusting ones like him.

(2) Baruch Yedid writes in TPS about "Anarchy in Gaza as Palestinian Fear of Hamas Breaks Down":

[Gazans] openly criticize Hamas in front of TV cameras — once unthinkable — can call the Iran-backed Hamas "betrayers of the Palestinian people." In one notable incident, a resident of Gaza told Radio Hebron, which also broadcasts from the Strip, that "Mohammed Deif and Yahya Sinwar are sons of dogs."

Dec. 13, 2023 update: According to a Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research poll released today, "In the Gaza Strip, support for Hamas today stands at 42% (compared to 38% three months ago)." I.e., most Gazans don't want to be ruled by Hamas.

Dec. 16, 2023 update: MEF's Benjamin Weinthal writes at Fox News Digital about the "Young generation of anti-Hamas activists in Gaza step up to serve but are snubbed by UN, aid groups."

Speaking with Fox News Digital from within the war zone in Gaza, Moumen Al-Natour, 28, said he "advocates peace and for the establishment of a Palestinian state" that coexists with the Jewish state as part of a two-state solution.

The Hamas regime has imprisoned Al-Natour twenty times, including incarceration for "expressing my opinion and trying to organize additional protests." ...

Al-Natour stressed that, in a postwar Gaza, it is important that "those who suffered for 17 years are the ones who should be leading ... for the future of Gaza. We represent the youth and the disenfranchised. We do not need donors to govern us.

Joseph Braude of the Center for Peace Communications comments that "Moumen Al-Natour combines a history of bold anti-Hamas activism with a commitment to forging civil society. When the fighting stops, the success of any post-Hamas administration will depend on whether it attracts Gazans like Moumen to step up and play a role." Braude goes on to assess the situation in Gaza more broadly:

Support for acceptance of Israel has generally been a minority view in Gaza, and most Gazans support the ideal of "resistance." But a substantial majority oppose Hamas' brand of resistance — that is, starting wars it can't win while hiding in bunkers and leaving civilians to suffer the consequences.

Meanwhile, a large number of Gazans, while opposed to Israel, adopt a pragmatic outlook on cooperation if it delivers tangible benefit to them. These pragmatists, combined with the minority who believe in coexistence as a principle, constitute a solid base of support for any post-Hamas administration committed to reconstruction.

Dec. 18, 2023 update: MEMRI has collected many voices at "Growing Criticism of Hamas and Its Officials by Gaza Residents: They Brought a Needless War Upon Us; Our Lives Are Worthless in Their Eyes; We Yearn to See the End of Hamas."

The article's first footnote lists pre-Oct. 7 MEMRI publications "complaining of its ineffectual, corrupt and tyrannical rule and of the disconnect between the people of Gaza and the Hamas leaders abroad, who live in luxury and care nothing for the lives of the Gazans."

Dec. 20, 2023 update: Writing for an Arabic-speaking audience Israel's National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi announced:

Israel has no interest in controlling the civil affairs of the Gaza Strip. This will require a moderate Palestinian governing body that enjoys broad popular support and legitimacy. It is not for us to determine who will this body be.

Dec. 21, 2023 update: "Gazans Are Starting to Blame Hamas for Wartime Suffering" runs the Wall Street Journal headline. Excerpts from the article by Margherita Stancati and Abeer Ayyoub:

quiet criticism has begun spreading against the militant group, with Gazans blaming the militants for having provoked Israel's wrath and for their inability to shield the population from a devastating war and a humanitarian crisis that deepens by the day.

"People are dying every minute," said a 56-year-old businessman from Gaza. "Hamas is the one that dragged us into this terrible vortex." ...

"On the first day, people were happy. But as Israel started pounding Gaza, destroying infrastructure and killing civilians, things started to change," said Mkhaimar Abusada, a political scientist at Gaza's Al-Azhar University. "There is a lot of criticism among Palestinians that the Oct. 7 attack—the killing of Israeli civilians, women and children—was a strategic mistake that provoked Israel into the current war."

"Damn Hamas," said a hairdresser originally from Gaza City who is now sheltering in Rafah, near the Egyptian border. "May God be my witness: If I see Ismail Haniyeh, I will hit him with my slippers," she said, referring to Hamas's political leader. ... Like many Gazans, she said she worries she may never be able to return home. "Next week, we may end up in Sinai," the desert region across the Egyptian border, she said. "What for? What did the resistance do for us?" ...

In private, locals say, the group is often harshly criticized. And now, some public signs of discontent are beginning to appear.

The spokesman for Hamas's Interior Ministry was speaking on live TV in Gaza City last month when a passerby walked into the frame. "I complain about you to God, Hamas," he said, waving his bandaged hand in the air.

The clip was widely shared by Gazans on social media, prompting Hamas authorities to issue a public statement: "We warn against publishing any pictures, videos or materials that are offensive to the image of the steadfastness and unity of our people in Gaza." ...

Hamas is "in a war, they are fighting back and defending themselves," said Abusada, the political scientist, who left Gaza for Cairo last month. "But once the war is over, you will hear more and more criticism against Hamas."

Dec. 23, 2023 update: Ariel Kahana compares Gaza to Germany in 1945 and concludes that,

As long as Hamas does not surrender, there is nothing to talk about regarding the rehabilitation of the strip. This is contrary to Israel's intention, as expressed this week by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who is under American pressure, to return Gazans to their homes in the northern strip. If rehabilitation begins before Hamas disappears, the Gazans' state of mind will have not been seared with their responsibility for the horrors. From a military point of view, there is also the question of why rebuild a neighborhood if two minutes later Hamas will take control of it again.

Dec. 24, 2023 update: After a Hamas gunmen shot and killed Ahmed Barika approaching a truck that dispensed aid in southern Gaza, his family cursed Hamas, set tires and a Hamas police station on fire, and vowed to avenge his death. A relative called on Hamas "to take responsibility for its actions. They told us to guard the deliveries and the aid, but today they shot at us and at members of my family." Presumably, the shooting took place because Hamas keeps aid deliveries for its own personnel.

Dec. 25, 2023 update: Benjamin Netanyahu writes that "Once Hamas is destroyed, Gaza is demilitarized and Palestinian society begins a deradicalization process, Gaza can be rebuilt and the prospects of a broader peace in the Middle East will become a reality."

Dec. 26, 2023 updates: (1) IDF Military Intelligence Directorate's Unit 504 specializes in human intelligence. It has held 50,066 telephone conversations with Gazans urging civilians to evacuate combat areas. Along the way, it gains intelligence about Hamas and on opinions on Hamas. Some examples, as reported by the Times of Israel:

A Unit 504 soldier tells a Gazan to evacuate immediately, then asks whether the man had seen Hamas gunmen. The Gazan replied that he had not and cursed the terror group. "The problem is that we're dying, and they're saving themselves, [even though] we haven't even seen their faces."He went on to say it is not safe in Gaza to publicly criticize Hamas. "If you think someone can say something against Hamas and then go out in the street afterward - they will destroy him. You don't understand what it's like in Gaza. They do whatever they want."

In another call recalled by a Unit 504 officer, a Palestinian relayed that Hamas was trying to use homes in his neighborhood to establish a line of defense against the IDF, but that the locals had chased the fighters away.

One Palestinian who had emigrated from Gaza to Europe called Unit 504 to offer information on Hamas. "Many others want something in return, but this man [in Europe] did it because he just hates Hamas," an officer said. "From this, you understand that something has changed over there." ...

[One the Unit 504 member] believes many in Gaza did not agree with the massacres carried out by Hamas on October 7 — that these murders had crossed a line for them and were not representative of what those in the enclave support. ...

In another call aired by the network, a Palestinian named Munir confirmed months of reports that Hamas is stealing humanitarian aid, but went further to say that the terror group actually controls UNRWA. "Wherever Hamas is located, they destroy everything. Hamas places its hand on everything. It has placed its hand on the UNRWA staff. Hamas are the senior leadership of UNRWA, and they're also in charge of the humanitarian organizations. Since the day [Hamas] took over control of Gaza, they've gained control over everything. The UNRWA staff are Hamas."

(2) An impassioned young Gazan man skewers Hamas on a video for its neglect of the interests of Gaza's population in a video made available by the Center for Peace Communications.

Dec. 29, 2023 update: An Egyptian proposal to end the fighting in Gaza suggests that a "technocratic government" rule in both the West Bank and Gaza. Comment: I can see adopting that term for what I have in mind for Gaza.

Jan. 2, 2024 update: Simple but profound point from @96470burn on Twitter, not to be forgotten: "When Hamas is obliterated everyone in Gaza will become our best friends."

Jan. 3, 2024 update: The Times of Israel reports that, as a temporary measure,

The Israel Defense Forces and Shin Bet security service want to divide Gaza into regions and sub-regions, with civil administration and the distribution of humanitarian aid in each area entrusted to a local clan, the Kan public broadcaster reported Monday. Only clans that are familiar to Israeli security officials will be entrusted to manage the aid that will enter the war-torn Strip from Egypt and Israel, the report said.

Jan. 4, 2024 updates: (1) Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has outlined "the day after" in Gaza that features a "Palestinian government that is not hostile to Israel. ... there will be local committees that are not hostile to Israel, and will not be able to act against it."

In a second description of the plan, which was leaked from a closed meeting, "Gazans who do not have ties to Hamas ... would handle civilian affairs in the enclave."

A third description goes thus:

"Hamas will no longer rule Gaza, and Israel will not rule Gaza on a civilian level," Gallant declared in the preamble. According to the plan, the local administration of the Palestinians will rely on the capacities of the existing administrative mechanism in Strip, and on local committees composed of Gazans whose appointment must be approved by Israel.

Unfortunately, Gallant sees this as only a first stage, to be followed by what Arutz Sheva characterizes as "a multinational task force of moderate Arab countries, the US and Europe would take responsibility for the economic and physical restoration of the Strip." Yes more unfortunately, "Gallant reportedly does not rule out the possibility of allowing the PA a role if it moderates its positions."

Comment: Good to see that the Government of Israel is looking to decent Gazans; but why then push them aside?

(2) Mordechai Kedar of Bar-Ilan University agrees with turning to Gazans, and their clans in particular, to run Gaza:

Creating entities based on families, extended families, or clans, is the only thing which works in the Middle East. You can compare the Emirates, which are based on clans, which are successful countries, versus the failing states in the Middle East, which are Syria and Iraq and Lebanon, and Sudan and Libya, who are all based on multiple group-countries, which is a failure in the Middle East. Only homogenous can run a normal state, and this is why the clan, one clan for a state, is the best way to establish a state in the Middle East.

A state based on a clan, usually, in the Middle East, tries to take care of its stability and prosperity and success in everything. They don't look for enemies. Only countries which are based on multiple groups like Syria, they need an external enemy like Israel in order to galvanize all the groups into one nation which factually doesn't exist. And this is why when you establish a state on a clan, it has the greatest chance this clan and state will be rather peaceful.

(3) Hamas kidnapped Mohammed Mushtaha, a dissident imam in Gaza; his son Ala recounts the circumstances at "Hamas Kidnapped My Father for Refusing to Be Their Puppet."

Jan. 9, 2024 updates: (1) Antony Blinken, U.S. secretary of state: "Israel must be a partner of the Palestinian leaders who are willing to lead their people and living side by side in peace with Israel."

(2) Meir Ben Shabbat: "With an extremely high percentage of support for Hamas, as long as a strong, organized, and armed core of the terrorist organization manages to remain in the Gaza Strip, it will clearly continue to be the dominant power in the Gaza Strip, whatever the identity and definition of the entity that is officially charged with running civil affairs there."

(3) The Center for Peace Communications notes that the United Arab Emirates engaged in "a decade-long campaign to erode local Muslim Brotherhood influence" that could provide a model for Gaza:

It began with a quiet purge of Brotherhood-affiliated preachers, teachers, and media workers. In 2003, 170 Brotherhood members were reassigned from the education ministry, marking the start of a reshuffling that saw Islamist ideologues replaced at the helm by a cadre of more liberally-minded educators. As in any society, most of the workforce went along with the new top-down effort, which extended beyond schools — it also included purging and restructuring the country's media and mosques.

The UAE and Gaza of course differ in countless ways, but one aspect of the Emirati experience bears adopting in any de-radicalization effort: Quite simply, the government had mapped each institution for its Brotherhood stalwarts and their opponents, and developed a long-term plan to strengthen the latter.

CPC's daily engagement with civilians across Gaza points to a critical mass of educators, intellectuals, and activists who oppose Hamas and support systemic change and development. Over the past two years, we've mapped their affiliations and gauged their aspirations. The possibility of a brighter future for Gaza hinges on a smart plan to empower these and other Gazans who share the will to reach for it.

Jan. 14, 2024 update: Glen Segell thinks through "the day after" in Gaza:

The challenge is the next steps within Gaza for the management of daily functions. One option I can suggest is for educated and competent Palestinians, by establishing local committees or councils, to assume management of utilities such as water, electricity, education, and health together with the IDF. That could eventually build within years or decades to municipal-wide management capability. Hamas never undertook this step in the 16 years it was in control of Gaza. ...

The quicker Palestinians show initiative to recognize Israel, renounce violence and lay down weapons, and raise the flag of leadership will be the quicker that they have an independent state in Gaza and the West Bank.

Jan. 15, 2024 update: Israel's Channel 13 reports that Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi warned the political leadership that in needs to make a plan for "the day after." It quotes him stating

We are seeing our achievements so far worn down because there is no strategy for the future. It is likely that we will need to return to operations in areas where we had already finished fighting.

Meanwhile, another security official added:

We are worried that Hamas will reorganize in northern Gaza. We need to create the situation we want as our end result. Our current achievements are being worn down. We need a civilian solution.

The report comments that Netanyahu's reluctance to make such plans stems in part from his worry that disagreements within his governing coalition will lead to a political crisis.

Jan. 17, 2024 update: Hamas released Mohammed Mushtaha; on him, see above, Jan. 4.

Jan. 21, 2024 update: And now, for an opposing point of view, provided by Rabbi Steven Pruzansky: "That the world assumes that "Gazans" should and will control Gaza on the day after makes a mockery of our suffering and sacrifices."

Jan. 23, 2024 update: Hamza Howidy identifies as a Palestinian from Gaza City, an accountant, and a peace advocate. He writes in "My Fellow Gazans: We Must Demand the Release of the Israeli Hostages" how

I used to believe Hamas was a ticking time bomb, which gave me the courage to stand up to them. I organized protests against Hamas. But received no international support, despite asking for it, when we spoke out against Hamas in 2019 and 2023. We felt betrayed and utterly alone while fighting for our freedom—then coming home and turning on the television only to find that Arabic media was more interested in the weather than our fight for freedom. Had we been supported, had Hamas been disposed of, it would have prevented the October 7 attacks and all the innocent Palestinians killed when Hamas now uses them as human shields.

Jan. 24, 2024 update: MEMRI reports that the posting of "videos of displaced Gaza residents demonstrating against Hamas ... near the Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Hospital in Deir Al-Balah."

Signs: "Yes to handing over the hostages."

Protesters: "The people want to end the war! The people want to end the war! We put our trust in Alah, he is our best supporter! We put our trust in Alah, he is our best supporter! We don't want [food] coupons! We don't want coupons! We want to live! We want to live!"

Woman: "We are living in tents. We are drowning. We are dying. We want to go back to our homes! Stop it! Enough! Someone should care for us. The people are the victims... We, the people, are the victims. They [in Hamas] are just asleep and know nothing about us. The war is against the people, not against them. We want to go back home." ...

Protesters: "We want to go back home, to Beit Lahia! We want to go back home, to Al-Shati! We want to go back home, to Jabalia! Leave us alone! Leave us alone!"

Avichay Adraee, the IDF's Arabic-language spokesman, tweeted footage of this protest, adding:

Hamas-ISIS leaders, led by Sinwar, listen to the cries of your people - your children, your women - who are expressing their outrage over the situation you have caused Gaza. They demand that you return the Israeli hostages home, so that the war will end and they can return home. Do these cries and demands reach the hiding places of the Hamas leaders?"

Jan. 28, 2024 update: Israel's Ministry of Defense posted a video of hundreds of Gazans evacuated from the north to the south of Gaza chanting "Down with Hamas" yesterday, a sign of Hamas losing control who is it.

Maj.-Gen. Rasan Aliyan of the office of the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories,

In recent days, we have been seeing more and more evidence of public criticism voiced by the residents of Gaza against the Hamas terrorist organization. The residents of the Gaza Strip rightly prefer their own well-being and the safety of their children to the continued strengthening of Hamas militants and the terrorist activities that harm them and their future.

Israel Hayom reports similar incidents in recent days.

On Wednesday, protesting Palestinians in Deir al-Balah—including numerous children—called on the terror group to release Israeli hostages and end the war so they can return to their homes in northern Gaza.

Outside Deir al-Balah's Al Aqsa Martyrs Hospital, the children held white pieces of paper saying, "Yes to giving back the prisoners" and expressing wishes to return to homes in Jabaliya and Beit Lahiya in the northern Gaza Strip.

That protest came one day after another small demonstration against Hamas in the southern Gaza city of Rafah. Videos circulating on social media featured Palestinians cursing Hamas and Gaza strongman Yahya Sinwar, who masterminded the Oct. 7 massacre.

It also reports that Hamas "has reportedly deployed security personnel to refugee centers, schools and other locations in recent days to prevent similar protests."

Jan. 31, 2024 update: The Wall Street Journal reports that

Israel's military believes the war effort in Gaza urgently needs a civil authority to deliver humanitarian aid, restore order and basic services, and manage nearly two million displaced residents, according to Israeli officials. ...

Israel's military has proposed working with civilians in Gaza who have good standing in their community and aren't affiliated with Hamas. Some government officials have also floated similar ideas. But other government members say suitable people can't be found. Some analysts warn that Hamas would try to assassinate Gazans who cooperate with Israel.

Feb. 1, 2024 update: MEMRI documents (confusingly, dated Feb. 1) videos of anti-Hamas protests in two places in Gaza (in Rafah, the Jabalya refugee camp, and Deir Al-Balah) uploaded on Feb. 1 and Feb. 21.

Crowd: "Sinwar, you are a collaborator! Sinwar, you are a collaborator! Sinwar, you are a traitor! Oh Sinwar, oh Haniyeh! The people are the victims! Down with Hamas! Down with Hamas! ... The people want a sack of flour! The people want a sack of flour! ... F*ck off, Sinwar! ... Get out, Sinwar! Get out, Sinwar! Get out, Sinwar! Get out, Sinwar! Get out, Sinwar! Get out, Sinwar! The people want to live! Get out, Sinwar! Get out, Sinwar! Get out, Sinwar! Get out, Sinwar! The people want Gaza back! The people want Gaza back! The people want Gaza back! The people want Gaza back! The people want Gaza back! The people want Gaza back! ...

Hear, oh [Osama] Hamdan! Hear, oh Hamdan! Come home from Lebanon! Come home from Lebanon! Hear, oh Hamdan! Hear, oh Hamdan! Come home from Lebanon! Come home from Lebanon! Hear, oh Hanniyeh! Hear, oh Hanniyeh! The people are the victims! The people are the victims! Say: 'Allah Akbar!' Allah Akbar! With our souls and our blood we will redeem you, oh Gaza! With our souls and our blood we will redeem you, oh Gaza! With our souls and our blood we will redeem you, oh Gaza!"

Protestor: "Man, half of us died from the rockets, the other half does not have to die of hunger. I do no not want hostages, I do not want war, or anything that Hamas does. We just want to live in peace, man. If [Hamas] likes that, fine, if not – then leave us alone! I say to Hamas today what Mahmoud Abbas said: 'Leave us alone!' [inaudible] All we want is to live. That's it. We want flour. Thank you! We want a sack of flour." ...

Crowd: "Sinwar, you ass! Sinwar, you ass! We want to return home! We want to return home! Haniyeh, you ass! Haniyeh, you ass! We want to return home! We want to return home! ... The people want to topple Hamas! The people want to topple Hamas! The people want to topple Hamas! The people want to topple Hamas! The people want to topple Hamas!"

Feb. 7, 2024 update: The anti-Hamas analyst from Gaza, Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, writes that "It's Not Too Late to Give Gaza a Better Future. If the international community doesn't want to see Hamas return to power in Gaza, it must act immediately." He predicts that Hamas will be back:

As I speak with people on the ground in Gaza, I've noticed that people are already pulling back on overt criticism and condemnation of the Islamist group, because they see what's coming. Hamas appears certain to stay, and it will retaliate against any opposition to its repressive rule. Professionals who are involved in planning day-after scenarios for Gaza have started discussing "postwar plans" instead of "post-Hamas plans," signaling a shift in expectations.

If a cessation in the fighting is indeed imminent, then time has almost run out to deliver to Gazans a better future. As soon as a cease-fire begins, what's left of Hamas's fighters and personnel will emerge from the tunnels, put back on their military uniforms, and resume operations out in the open, especially in areas vacated by IDF ground units. But that isn't the only alternative.

His alternative? A police force under the auspices of the Palestinian Authority and the Office of the U.S. Security Coordinator for Israel. Alkhatib concludes that "With some courage, creativity, and assertive planning, we can still create a better future for Palestinians and Israelis alike."

Feb. 23, 2024 update: Khaled Abu Toameh adds more evidence of Gaza unhappiness with Hamas at "Palestinian Leaders Have Brought a Nakba to Their People."

Mar. 3, 2024 update: I today published "Netanyahu's Bold, Realistic Plan for 'the Day After Hamas'." It updates the Oct. 17 article that kicked off this blog and foreshadows a longer Spring 2024 article.

Mar. 4, 2024 update: Khaled Abu Toameh points to a problem:

Mar. 6, 2024 update: Khaled Abu Toameh has collected negative quotes about Hamas from West Bankers who worked in Israel before Oct. 7 but now are shut out due to the atrocity.

Mar. 7, 2024 update: MEMRI has collected a range of anti-Hamas sentiments from Gazans under the title "Growing Criticism Of Hamas And Its Leader Sinwar By Gazans: They Are Trading In Our Blood."

Mar. 8, 2024 update: (1) The security establishment is mulling the idea of hiring non-Hamas Gazans to secure the aid entering Gaza.

(2) Seth Frantzman assesses the pluses and minuses for Israel of working with clans in Gaza. Plus: They are "only powerful groups that might provide a shield against Hamas atrocities in the future are large clans, because even Hamas fears angering large families that have influence and power, and may have weapons as well." Minus:

tribes and clans are important, but they are not a substitute for a state or even state-like structures. They also do not weather the storm when push comes to shove. They tend to thrive when there is a severe power vacuum and people turn to relying on family connections and families to survive. But at the end of the day, organized political, military, and terrorist movements generally win out when they face off against clans and tribes in the region.

Mar. 12, 2024 update: Some Israeli specialists doubt that clans in Gaza can help run the territory after Hamas, writes Gianluca Pacchiani.

experts' skepticism is mainly due to the diminished clout that clans now hold in contemporary Gazan society, and the inevitable influence that established Palestinian political movements would exert over them.

"The clans are a thing of the past," said Yohanan Tzoreff, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), and an expert on Israeli-Palestinian relations. "Relying on them is relying on a broken reed."

Dror Zeevi, a professor of Middle East Studies at Ben Gurion University, adds that

"If Israel decides to depend on a series of clans, their chiefs would quickly go to the Palestinian Authority and get their marching orders from them. They're not going to get them from Israel. So you'll end up having Hamas or PA rule anyway," said Zeevi.

Tzoreff concurred. "Whoever goes behind the back of the nationalist movements to speak with Israel will run into trouble." ...

"Israel can perhaps make small humanitarian agreements with the clans," Zeevi said. "But there's no way that they can be effective as a controlling power in Gaza. Israel needs to choose between the PA and Hamas. There's nothing in between." ...

[With the start of the First Intifada] "All the clans lost their importance," said Tzoreff. "Mukhtars who used to speak with Israel before the intifada became irrelevant in the eyes of their community. Israel also stopped talking with them, and started speaking with the leadership of the intifada instead."

David Hacham, a retired IDF colonel who served in Gaza's military administration of civilian affairs between 1985 and 1993, sees things differently:

In the event of Israel maintaining control over Gaza after the war, retired colonel Hacham posited that in Gaza's traditional, conservative society, family-centered structures are still a dominant force and can work as a liaison between the Israeli government and the local population. According to Hacham, clans are still a preferable alternative to the ailing PA, which is perceived by its citizenry as corrupt and ineffective and has already lost control over parts of the West Bank.

Tzoreff, on the other hand, did not believe that Israel could retain long-term military and civilian control of Gaza: "No international partners would be willing to cooperate with us," he warned. He saw no alternative to a "rehabilitated" Palestinian government taking control of the Strip, as per the American vision.

To Tzoreff, the power decline of the clans in favor of nationalist political movements has been an inevitable consequence of the development of a Palestinian national consciousness since the First Intifada, when the conflict spread throughout in the West Bank and Gaza.

"In every society, there is an initial phase when the community is centered around families and tribes. At a later stage, the idea of peoplehood emerges. This also applies to the Palestinians," said Tzoreff. "Does anyone actually believe that we can turn back the clock of history and return the Palestinians to the days when they did not regard themselves as a people? It makes no sense. We can't run the process in reverse."

Mar. 13, 2024 update: MEMRI summarizes a video posted by the Brussels-based Palestinian activist Amjad AbuKoush in which he voiced

severe criticism of Hamas, Al-Jazeera, and Qatar. He said that Palestinians are paying the price for Hamas's policies throughout the past 17 years. AbuKoush said that Hams has declared that this is a "victorious" war for the liberation of Jerusalem, but its maximal demands in its negotiations are that Israel withdraws from Gaza and the Strip is rebuilt, while Israel was not in Gaza prior to the war and the Strip did not need rebuilding then. He added that Hamas gave the "filthiest and lowest occupation in history" a pretext because of their "stupidity."

Mar. 14, 2024 update: (1) "Abu Ali" reports, relying on Gazan sources, that

Hamas executed Mahtar of the Daghmesh clan, in the middle of the clan's "diwan" – that is, in the central area from which the clan is controlled – an elimination with a clear statement.

In recent days, Hamas issued a statement in which it warned the heads of the clans against cooperating with Israel in this area (it fears that Israel will succeed in creating a governing body to replace it. This is a threat to its power base).

JNS provides more commentary on the clans:

Israel has floated the idea of Gaza clans acting as partners in running the internal affairs of the Strip after Hamas has been eliminated. In January, Israel's National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer submitted a plan to the Security Cabinet that looked to the clans to form part of the backbone of a post-war civil administration. ...

"Even if there are tribes that want to say yes to Israel and participate in the management of the Strip, they know that this is a danger to their lives because Hamas has not yet been completely destroyed," said a Palestinian source, cited by Israel Hayom on Tuesday. The Hebrew daily said that given Hamas's continued hold on parts of the Gaza Strip, it's hard to see the families taking action in the direction of Israel—the statement by some clans in support of "the resistance" being a case in point.

Khaled Abu Toameh disagrees, reporting that some clans linked to the Palestinian Authority have started to challenge Hamas in recent weeks.

"These clans, known to have dozens of armed members, began operating their own enforcers in some towns and refugee camps in the Gaza Strip to prevent looting and other acts of anarchy and lawlessness," he wrote.

"At least one clan was reportedly involved in escorting some of the trucks loaded with humanitarian aid that entered the Gaza Strip through Egypt and Israel," he added.

Hamas and the P.A. are competing for the clans' support as they understand this support is "crucial" for whoever seeks to control the Gaza Strip, he said.

"That's why P.A. and Hamas leaders have always treated the large families and their leaders with utmost respect. In some instances, clan leaders were elevated to the unofficial position of supreme judges and arbitrators, replacing the official judiciary and law enforcement of both organizations."

(2) The Christian Science Monitor reports that "Gazans are now daring to speak out."

Across the Gaza Strip ... Palestinian frustration and anger with Hamas is on the rise. ... Now, with starvation, profiteering, and internal chaos on the rise, the militant group that has ruled the strip for 17 years is nowhere to be found.

"We did not choose to be in a war that takes us from our homes, [takes] the lives of loved ones, and puts our lives in a death game that we knew nothing about," says Bisan Nateel, a youth organizer for a local Gaza nongovernmental organization.

"Hamas didn't warn us or give any instructions to protect or help people. I don't know what they were thinking or what they expected people to do, but this is unacceptable for everyone in Gaza," says Walid, an aid worker in central Gaza who declined to use his full name. "I feel that Hamas gambled with our lives at stake, and lost."

Rafaat Naim, a Gaza businessman and former member of the Palestine Chamber of Commerce, says prior to the war, support for Hamas among Gaza residents was already limited. "Hamas' popularity in the Gaza Strip was waning, due to its governance failures [and] misallocation of funds," he says. "The devastating impact of the conflict further entrenched this sentiment."

The anger that has been simmering since the early days of the war, meanwhile, has only in recent weeks come to the surface. These are not organized calls or political protests against Hamas, but conversational complaints growing louder by the day. Tiny protests have been scattered.

"People now are very angry with Hamas, but at the same time they are afraid to express the anger inside them by protesting or holding sit-ins," notes Wael Mohammad, a civil engineer and longtime Hamas critic in Gaza. He says 16 years of the Islamic Hamas' intimidation tactics, as well as its use of religious faith to push its ideology, made "the population in Gaza docile."

Now with the lack of Hamas police officers on the streets, and a reduced threat of being dragged off by its security services, people in Gaza, facing starvation, are more emboldened to criticize the movement in public. Some even curse it. ...

growing disillusion with Hamas' rule is impacting the group's future prospects each day the war goes on, as residents see it as unresponsive, irresponsible, and lacking basic care for Gaza's people. ...

"Hamas followed the same old war plan and left the people to the mercy of Israelis," says Walid, the aid worker.

"We gave in to Hamas for a long time, and we thought Hamas as a party would be prepared for the war after Oct. 7 as they claimed. But they were only ready to protect themselves," says Rana Alsayed, a mother and feminist activist from Gaza City who was displaced four times by Israel's offensives.

"This war is beyond Hamas' capabilities," says Ahmed, a Gaza photojournalist who blames intense targeting by Israel's military for the movement's inability to govern or protect its citizens. "It cannot help itself, let alone the people." ...

"They see their role is to fight Israelis and not to care for the people. But since Hamas took control of the Gaza Strip, they implicitly agreed to care for its people," says Walid, who, like many, sees Hamas as "evading that responsibility."

"At least provide enough food for the people to not die of hunger. Build shelters and safe places for the people to go to. Establish a form of civic protection and law enforcement to keep people in check," the aid worker says.

"The Oct. 7 operation was nothing but a continuation of the series of political and military gambles that the movement has made since its inception, an operation that brought nothing but destruction, killing, displacement, and deportation of the residents of the Gaza Strip," says Mr. Mohammad, the civil engineer. He likens the movement to "a group of mercenaries and militias that do not rise to the level of a Palestinian movement" and don't "care about Palestinian blood." He, and others, point to statements by Hamas' leadership abroad at the onset of the war that it was the responsibility of the United Nations and the international community, not Hamas, to protect Gaza civilians. ...

"We have to buy food that was sent to Gaza as aid. We hear lots of rumors that this aid was stolen under the eyes of Hamas, sometimes in complicity with people from the government," says Walid.

Mohammed, an accountant and former government employee now in Rafah, says the links between Hamas and aid theft across Gaza are "clear." "We cannot provide definitive proof, but who has the guns? Who has the monopoly on force in Gaza? It's Hamas. The work of organized criminal groups wouldn't happen without their consent," Mohammed says via WhatsApp messaging. "They are profiting politically and economically from our death and misery." ...

Despite the rising anger, fear persists amid occasional reports of mosque imams or civil society organizers being dragged off and "disappeared" by Hamas for voicing public criticism. Protesters gathering in northern Gaza were shot at by armed men. "At the grassroots level, Hamas persists in its oppression even amid these dire circumstances," notes Mr. Naim, the businessman.

In the void left behind by Hamas, some Gazans are attempting to organize at the grassroots to provide services and a sense of order. In Rafah, so-called Protection Committees – groups of local young men, dressed in matching black clothes and masks, armed with batons – are providing basic security to markets and public areas.

Mr. Naim is one of several local Gaza business owners and community leaders who are attempting to form a council to facilitate the entry and distribution of aid and goods. They have set their sights on advocating for the border to open to resume a robust flow of aid and commerce into the besieged strip. "The people demand resolute, clear, and strategic decisions to pave the way for stability," says Mr. Naim.

Yet attempts by the people to organize and circumvent Hamas face steep obstacles – and danger. This week, unverified reports emerged that Hamas executed a mukhtar, or local community leader, in northern Gaza, allegedly for coordinating with the Israeli military for a separate initiative to facilitate aid.

The incident appeared to confirm what Palestinians in Gaza already knew or believed: Any Israeli involvement would delegitimize and kill any alternative group providing services in Gaza. "The occupation's civil administration has engaged with some community leaders and members of the private sector," notes Mr. Naim. "This initiative is both unacceptable and risky for all involved on the Palestinian side."

While the majority of Palestinians in Gaza interviewed say they no longer want Hamas' rule, a significant portion still support its existence as an armed movement. A lack of alternatives leaves Gazans unsure of their future. "I still support Hamas as a liberation movement, but I am not satisfied with its uncalculated actions," notes Ahmed, the photojournalist.

With the losses piling up for families in Gaza facing missile strikes, famine, and profiteering, more Gazans say the idea of trusting Hamas as rulers governing the strip again is unthinkable. "I lost my mother, my husband lost half his family, and we lost our house. My children have known nothing but wars and escalations," says Ms. Alsayed, the Gaza feminist. "How can my children ever believe in Hamas, who are neither providing us with a bite to eat nor allowing anyone else to do so?"

Mar. 16, 2024 update: Israel's Defense Minister Yoav Gallant sketched out four possible and all bad outcomes in Gaza. From worst to best, in his view: Hamas rule, Israeli rule, anarchy, PA rule. This prompted severe criticism from Likud.

Mar. 19, 2024 update: (1) The Center for Peace Communications has posted a video of Gazans explaining why they do not want Hamas to rule them again.

(2) S. Schneidmann. a Research Fellow at MEMRI, reports that Hamas condemned the notion of a clan-based civil administration

as early as January 6, 2024. As the idea coalesced into practical steps, Hamas threatened, on March 10, to strike "with an iron fist" against anyone compromising the "interior front," emphasizing that the contacts between certain mukhtars and the Israeli occupation constitute "national treason." Hamas sources expressed great confidence in the tribes' loyalty to the Hamas leadership and in the capabilities of its security apparatus in detecting communications between tribal elements and Israel and the Palestinian Authority, in order to thwart all subversive organizing.

Arab media reported on March 14 that Hamas had already executed two tribal elders charged with treason and with collaborating with the enemy – the mukhtars of the Doghmush and Kafarna clans. The report was vigorously denied by the Hamas government the same day. The Doghmush clan also published a statement denying that the mukhtar had been executed by Hamas, saying that he had been killed in an Israeli airstrike in November 2023. The statement emphasized that the clan has no contacts with any foreign elements and that any declaration of a blood feud with Hamas over the execution of the Mukhtar is false.

In further response to the threat issued by Hamas, tribal elements released statements underlining their allegiance to Hamas rule. For example, the head of the Supreme Council for Tribal Matters in the Gaza Strip, Abu-Salman Al-Marni, told Hamas's Shehab news agency that there had indeed been attempts by Israel, regional, and international elements to demand that tribes act as an alternative to Hamas's rule in the Gaza Strip. He said that all tribes oppose this and reject the idea that they should replace the Hamas government, and that anyone who cooperates with the occupation is not a mukhtar and does not represent their families. In another statement to the Turkish news agency Anadolu, Al-Marni underlined that the tribes support whoever is chosen by the people – i.e. Hamas, in the 2006 Palestinian Authority Legislative Council elections – and that the tribes have no intention of replacing Hamas rule. In an interview with Al-Jazeera, Al-Marni said that the Hamas administration alone is responsible for securing and distributing humanitarian aid, and that "all" the tribes refuse to collaborate with Israel or take Hamas' place.

Such statements were of course welcomed by Hamas, but some sources disputed them. For example, a Telegram channel called "The Tribes and Families Of the Southern Districts – Gaza Strip" posted on social media that the organization called The Supreme Council of the Tribes of Gaza or The Supreme Council for Tribal Matters in the Gaza Strip is subordinate to Hamas and is not a legitimate body that represents all the tribes.

Mar. 20, 2024 update: (1) Reuters reports that video footage it reviewed points to Hamas-related operatives guarding a convoy of trucks entering Gaza with aid, and that this implies that Hamas still rules the Gazan population.

With Israel sworn to eliminate Hamas following its deadly October 7 raid on Israel, it has become highly risky for anyone linked to the Islamist group to emerge into the open to provide security for aid deliveries to desperate civilians.

So numerous clans, civil society groups and factions — including Hamas's secular political rival Fatah — have stepped in to help provide security for the aid convoys, according to the Palestinian officials and Hamas sources.

Those sources believe that

Hamas' ability to rally such groups behind it over security showed it retains influence, and that efforts by Israel to build its own administrative system to keep order in Gaza were being resisted.

"Israel's plan to find some clans to collaborate with its pilot projects of finding an alternative to Hamas didn't succeed but it also showed that Palestinian resistance factions are the only ones who can run the show, in one way or another," said a Palestinian official who asked not to be named.

(2) The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research published a new public opinion survey today that it finds puzzling: asked "If it was up to you, which of those would you prefer to see in control of the Gaza Strip?"

Gazans' support for continued Hamas control over the Gaza Strip has increased to [52%], a 14-point rise. Indeed, given the magnitude of the suffering in the Gaza Strip, this seems to be the most counter intuitive finding of the entire poll.

Mar. 21, 2024 update: (1) My full-sized article on this topic, "Building a Decent Gaza," has now appeared.

(2) Simultaneously, the Wall Street Journal reports that the Government of Israel is planning along the lines I suggest in that article. Excerpts:

Mar. 22, 2024 update: Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, dismisses the idea of setting up a local administration made up of clans and large Gazan families as "a fantasy [that] has no chance of success, both because of the nature of Gazan clan structures, which is different from Judea and Samaria, and because Hamas will continue to kill clan members to make it clear that cooperation with Israel is out of the question."

Mar. 24, 2024 update: Israel's security sources believe, according to Arutz Sheva,

that without armed groups in Gaza other than Hamas, it will be impossible to form a governmental alternative to the terrorist organization, which is taking over humanitarian aid and trying to regain control in the northern and central Gaza Strip through Hamas operatives and policemen.

The question of arming Gazans and local leaders in Gaza, as well as issues of who will control the Gaza Strip the day after the war, will also be brought up for discussion in Defense Minister Gallant's meeting with US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin. The US might agree to supply the guns, with Israeli approval, to community leaders who will be pre-approved by Israel.

Mar. 25, 2024 update: Rafael Castro writes in Arutz Sheva that "Proposals like Daniel Pipes' suggestion of empowering non-Hamas-affiliated Gazans may sound appealing but lack realism."

Apr. 7, 2024 update: Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, a Gazan living in the United States, explains in an interview how he hopes to end the war with Israel.

Apr. 10, 2024 update: Alkhatib has published "What I've Heard From Gaza."

Apr. 12, 2024 update: Alkhatib becomes even more explicit in an article in the Emirati newspaper, The National, under the title "Israel's war has killed 31 members of my family, yet it's vital to speak out against Hamas. To realise peace, the pro-Palestine movement must not buy into the militants' self-serving, nihilistic narrative." Excerpts:

Hamas and its leader, Yahya Sinwar, have helped to drag Gazans into that war without any strategic vision beyond violent extremism and messianic nihilism. ...

Hamas's regime consisted of a criminal and despotic enterprise that used Gaza as a haven for the group's members and affiliates and turned Palestinians there into aid-dependent subjects reliant on the international community. Hamas enriched itself in the process of turning Gaza into a "resistance citadel" that was part of a nefarious regional alliance with Iran. ...

[Hamas] instigated futile wars with Israel that failed to liberate an inch of Palestinian land and would instead get Gazans killed and batter the Strip. Hamas would then benefit from the reconstruction funded by the international community and the work of humanitarian NGOs, absolving itself from its governance responsibilities and facing little consequences for its violent and destructive actions. ...

It is incumbent upon those of us who have privilege and access to safety, resources and free expression to speak up and out and help the Palestinian people develop a new programme and movement that propels their just and urgent cause forward. ...

What is needed is ... a pragmatic acceptance that after 75 years of setbacks, Israel's people are there to stay, and we must find a way to establish a shared future that embraces and acknowledges each other's mutual existence. ...

a post-Hamas Palestinian leadership must view the reconstruction of Gaza after the war as an opportunity to prove and demonstrate the viability of the kind of governance of which Palestine is truly capable: one that can effectively usher in an independent and sovereign state.

Apr. 16, 2024 update: Sami Obeid, a Gazan who has lived in Israel, reports on the situation in Gaza:

We, the people of Gaza, are also living like hostages of Hamas. ... if Hamas doesn't return to power, we will remain here, Gaza is a good place to live. ... Israel says it will take one or two years to ensure that Hamas cannot come back to power. I hope so, I hope they won't rule Gaza in the future, but I predict that they will return. ...

Nobody wants Hamas, but people also don't see an alternative. Netanyahu has been asked repeatedly who should rule over Gaza, and he has never given an answer. He thinks the people of Gaza committed October 7 together with Hamas. But we are the victims. If Hamas returns to power, I will not stay here one more day.

Ninety percent of the people in Gaza don't want Hamas, in any way. They know that Israel considers Hamas terrorists and will impose limitations on Gaza if it stays in power. People would much prefer the PA to Hamas, but what is Hamas going to do if the PA is restored here? Go to Qatar? Hamas will not allow the PA to rule undisturbed. ...

What Hamas did on October 7 was due to the fact that they knew the people [of Gaza] hated them. Hamas was afraid of the people, there was a growing anti-Hamas sentiment. If there is no Hamas in Gaza, I will remain here. I am 65, I have traveled around the world, but I love this place. ...

When Hamas rose to power and started brainwashing people about its divine mission to fight the Jews and liberate Palestine, I started wondering "Where will they lead these poor people, with their lies and their wars? I don't want to die for their cause, let them go to die."

Apr. 21, 2024 update: Palestinian Media Watch calls it a "an incredible and rare admission." What is it?

Fatah has corroborated what Israel has been saying all along: that Hamas ... has been committing what is essentially a triple crime—it has attacked and killed aid workers in order to control aid distribution, stolen the food and water for itself, and caused food prices to skyrocket."

Here is Ramzi Awda, secretary-general of the International Campaign to Combat the Occupation and Apartheid, on the Fatah television station, also called Awda:

Hamas' persecution of any party who is a source for distributing the [humanitarian] aid or securing it began from the start of the [Oct. 7] war, as Hamas persecuted well-known figures and teams of volunteers on the ground in mid-October. It attacked them and killed some of them for two reasons: Firstly, preventing any activity by any [other] party in the Gaza Strip; and secondly, ensuring Hamas control over the aid and its storage, which of course leads to these crazy and unreal prices that no one can pay in the shadow of this destruction. After the occupation (i.e., Israel) bombed storehouses controlled by Hamas, the accumulation of tons of various food and aid products that Hamas had taken exclusivity over became clear, at a time when the Gaza Strip is suffering from hunger."

The program went on the include part of an interview that first aired on Al-Jazeera:

Woman from the Gaza Strip: "The aid isn't reaching all the people."

Al-Jazeera TV reporter: "Few things are arriving and they [Hamas] claim they are distributing them."

Woman: "It is all to their [own] homes. Let Hamas catch me and shoot me and do what they want to me."

The Fatah program goes on to comment:

This is a damning indictment by Fatah, exposing Hamas' heinous actions against humanitarian aid workers and Palestinian civilians in need of food. World powers were quick to decry Israel for an inadvertent tragedy that killed several World Central Kitchen personnel. These same authorities and media outlets must now condemn Hamas with equal vigor for its intentional murder of aid workers. A failure to condemn Hamas for intentional murder by the countries and frameworks who condemned Israel for accidental killing would expose once again a glaring double standard by international bodies, and especially the media, that unfortunately has accompanied this entire war.

For more information, see the report by MEMRI.

May 15, 2024 update: Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has publicly urged Netanyahu to "declare that Israel will not rule Gaza civilly" but will work to establish "an alternative governing authority to Hamas in Gaza" with international support. "We must eliminate Hamas' military capability and establish another entity to rule Gaza. A non-hostile Palestinian rule in Gaza is an Israeli interest."

An hour later, Netanyahu negatively responded with, "I am not willing to replace Hamastan with Fatahstan. The first condition for the day after is to eliminate Hamas, and do it without excuses."

Of course, sponsoring a Gazan-led administration in Gaza squares this circle.

(For more details about the heated exchange, click here. For the English translation of Gallant's televised address, click here.)

May 16, 2024 update: The White House responded with "We share Israel's goal of defeating Hamas and will continue to stand with Israel to make that happen."

May 19, 2024 update: Yaacov Lappin, Israeli military analyst:

setting up a temporary Israeli military administration is long overdue, and ending Hamas's rule without this interim step appears fanciful. An Israeli military administration in Gaza, while provisional, addresses immediate security concerns, fills a vacuum that is currently still being filled in areas of Gaza by Hamas, and prepares the ground for a sustainable moderate Gazan civil governance structure, which will, in reality, take a long time to form. When it does form, it must operate under the umbrella of Israeli security operations in Gaza, which must continue in Gaza for the foreseeable future.

May 20, 2024 update: Frank Sobchak, U.S. colonel, retired: "Israel will likely have to establish some form of partnership with local security forces in Gaza, an extremely difficult task that requires considerable time, effort and preparation."

May 30, 2024 update: Today's Center for Peace Communications newsletter documents the resentment among Gazans toward Hamas because the latter steal food aid.

May 31, 2024 update: The IDF released a recording of a conversation between an Israeli officer and a resident of Jabaliya in northern Gaza:

Hamas are dogs, sons of dogs, may Allah burn the head of [Hamas founder] Ahmed Yassin in his grave. May Allah break Hamas and give you the strength to break Hamas and slaughter their children and women. May Allah burn the heads of Hamas, slaughter them and their children, and burn their bodies in graves. Hamas are dogs, traitors, sons of traitors, may Allah take their children for what they have brought upon us.

Comments: (1) Some context for this tirade would help. (2) It would sure help to hear less pleading by Israelis and more information like this.

June 3, 2024 update: Audrey Kurth Cronin argues in "How Hamas Ends: A Strategy for Letting the Group Defeat Itself" that Israel should aim to make Hamas fail through popular backlash.

Hamas rules Gaza through oppression, using arrests and torture to suppress dissent. Gazans widely loathe its internal General Security Service, which surveils and keeps files on people, stamps out protests, intimidates journalists, and tracks people accused of "immoral acts." Since October 7, many Palestinians have expressed anger at Hamas for having misjudged the consequences of the attack—a serious targeting error that has indirectly led to the deaths of tens of thousands of Gazans. And suffering Palestinians are well aware that Hamas built an elaborate tunnel system to protect its leaders and fighters but did nothing to protect civilians.

To help Hamas fail, Israel should be doing everything in its power to give Palestinians in Gaza a sense that there is an alternative to Hamas and that a more hopeful future is possible. Instead of restricting humanitarian aid to a trickle, Israel should be providing it in massive quantities. Instead of merely destroying infrastructure and homes, Israel should also be sharing plans for rebuilding the territory in a post-Hamas future. Instead of carrying out collective punishment and hoping that Palestinians will eventually blame Hamas, Israel should be conveying that it sees a distinction between Hamas fighters and the vast majority of Gazans, who have nothing to do with the group and are themselves victims of its thuggish rule and reckless violence.

After decades of struggling with Hamas and months of fighting a massive, brutal war against it, Israel still seems unlikely to defeat the group. But it can still win—by helping Hamas defeat itself.

Lt. Col. (res.) Peter Lerner, a spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces: "There is never a goal to kill each and every last terrorist on the ground. That's not a realistic goal. Destroying Hamas as a governing authority is an achievable and attainable military objective."

June 10, 2024 update: lelemSLP posted a video, with English subtitles, of a Gazan man railing against Hamas, until he is taken away.

June 12, 2024 update: A Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) poll asked who should control Gaza after fighting ends, 46 percent in Gaza chose Hamas, 24 percent chose a "new Palestinian Authority," 11 chose the PA as is, 10 percent chose the existing PA but minus Mahmoud Abbas, 2 chose each of the United Nations, Arab states, and the Israeli army. Three months earlier, 52 percent opted for Hamas, so that number is down by 6 percent.

June 13, 2024 update: Two articles appeared today on Gazans upset with Hamas not agreeing to the truce proposed by Israel and endorsed by the U.S. government and the United Nations. First, the Agence France-Presse:

  • Umm Ala, 67, who has been displaced twice: Hamas has "led the Palestinian people into a war of annihilation. If the Hamas leaders were interested in ending this war and ending the suffering of the Palestinian people, they would have agreed [to a deal."
  • Abu Eyad, 55, who lives in north Gaza: Hamas has made a "mockery of us, our pain and the destruction of our lives." The Hamas political leadership is "sleeping comfortably, eating and drinking. Have you ever tried to actually live our lives today Did you know that many times we don't find any food at all?"
  • Abu Shaker, 35: "We are tired, we are dead, we are destroyed and our tragedies are countless." Addressing Hamas, he asked "What are you waiting for?" What do you want? The war must end at any cost. We cannot bear it any longer."
  • Umm Shadi, 50: Hamas must "end the war immediately without seeking to control and rule Gaza." What have we gained from this war except killing, destruction, extermination and starvation? Every day the war on Gaza increases, our pain and the pain of the people increases. What is Hamas waiting for?"

Second, the Wall Street Journal:

  • Omaima Abu Eida, 58: "Hamas drove the bus to the edge and lost control. They are not negotiating for us, they are negotiating to stay in power after all this devastation."

  • Fadi Awad, 32, an electrician and father of five living in a tent in central Gaza: "We hear positive talks, then pull back, then breakthrough, then it all falls apart and with it, our lives. Our leaders, Hamas, the Arabs, they watch us on TV from their hotels. [They] do not know what it's like to run for your life, hungry and barefoot."

  • A resident: "People in Gaza have lost faith in Hamas, including many of the movement's supporters. But people hate Israel more."

  • Nazir Majali, an Israel-based analyst with Arabic newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat: "Following Hamas's latest response, there is now unprecedented discontent and frustration within Gaza. The population is increasingly critical of the movement's leadership, describing its actions as unwise and irresponsible towards the suffering and pain of Gaza's residents."

  • Nu'man Hamouda, 23 and an accountant, who says he lost nine relatives, several friends, his job, and home: "If Hamas and Abbas heard our screams they will be the ones to end this now, unite and say they surrender."

  • Mkhaimar Abusada, associate professor of political science at Al-Azhar University in Gaza, now based in Cairo: The current level of public criticism of Hamas is unprecedented, stemming from the perception that Hamas is detached from the everyday suffering of Gazans. "Maybe 80 percent of Palestinians in the West Bank and diaspora love Hamas, something that gave them honor or dignity, but for someone who lives in Gaza and is paying the price, it's a totally different story."

June 14, 2024 update: Rahim Mohamed writes in Canada's National Post about an unnamed southern Gaza-based activist who told him that

Hamas is far less popular in Gaza than what's been reported in the media. He estimated that just five per cent of his fellow Gazans still support the territory's ruling party.

He blamed foreign media outlets for perpetuating misperceptions about support for Hamas among Gazans, singling out Qatari state broadcaster Al Jazeera as the source of much of this misinformation. He also indicated that Qatar is funding much of the junk polling that has come out of Gaza in recent months. (Bethlehem-born Azmi Bishara, formerly the head of a far-left pro-Palestinian faction in Israel's Knesset, now runs the Qatar-funded Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (also called the Doha Institute), overseeing region-wide opinion research on the war in Gaza in this capacity.)

Not mincing words, the activist said that Doha is playing a "cancerous role" in the region's politics by giving Hamas legitimacy and, by extension, prolonging the suffering of Gazans.

He was also critical of the western media for mostly ignoring internal resistance to Hamas within Gaza, noting that the 2019 youth-led "We Want to Live" protests, which he helped organize, barely received any international coverage. ...

One recurring theme of our conversation was a growing inter-generational divide within Gaza, with Gaza's youth becoming increasingly disconnected from both Hamas and moderate rival party Fatah. "Fatah is the party of retirees," he told me. ...

While he had little faith in either major party, the activist was more optimistic about the prospects for grassroots local governance in a post-conflict Gaza. He stressed that Israel could help get the ball rolling by establishing so-called "Hamas-free" enclaves in Gaza governed by local community leaders. Such self-governance zones would resemble other democratic enclaves in the region, such as the autonomous territory of Rojava in northeastern Syria.

"My message (to the international community) is to exert pressure on the government of Israel to set up Hamas-free zones in Gaza," he told me in no uncertain terms. ...

[He] insisted that there's a critical mass of Gazans on the ground who are ready and willing to defend hypothetical Israel-backed safe zones from Hamas fighters. He told me that Hamas's open attacks on aid convoys have pushed many to a breaking point, saying he regularly sees "masked militants" loot trucks carrying humanitarian supplies in full view of the public.

So while the dominant media narrative is that Hamas has only strengthened its hold on Gaza over the past eight months, the reality on the ground is much different than what's being reported. A clandestine network of Gazan dissidents stands ready to challenge Hamas from within. Israel must now give them the tools they need to mount this challenge.

June 15, 2024 update: The New York Times collected anti-Hamas voices in "As War Drags On, Gazans More Willing to Speak Out Against Hamas."

Raed al-Kelani, 47, a former PA employee: Hamas "started Oct. 7, and it wants to end it on its own terms. But time is ticking with no potential hope of ending this. Hamas is still seeking its slice of power. Hamas does not know how to get down from the tree it climbed."

Some Gazans "said that Hamas knew it would be starting a devastating war with Israel that would cause heavy civilian casualties, but that it did not provide any food, water or shelter to help people survive it. ... Throughout the war, hints of dissent have broken through, sometimes even as Gazans were mourning loved ones killed by Israeli attacks. Others waited until they left the enclave to condemn Hamas — and even then were at times reluctant in case the group survives the war and continues to govern Gaza."

Motaz Azaiza, a well-known Gaza photojournalist, wrote after fleeing Gaza: "If the death and hunger of their people do not make any difference to them, they do not need to make any difference to us. Cursed be everyone who trafficked in our blood, burned our hearts and homes, and ruined our lives."

Obada Shtaya, a founder of the Institute for Social and Economic Progress: "When you realize six months in or seven months in that Gaza is completely destroyed, your life as a Gazan is completely destroyed, that's where people are coming from when they are not supportive of Sinwar or Haniyeh."

A Gaza woman who escaped with her family to Egypt hears regularly from friends and family that they do not want the war to end before Hamas is defeated in Gaza. She said Hamas had prioritized its own aims over the well-being of the Palestinians they purport to defend and represent. "They could have surrendered a long time ago and saved us from all this suffering."

A lawyer, 26: Most Gazans supported Oct. 7. "But what we don't support is them continuing with this war when they have not accomplished any of the goals they set out to accomplish. This isn't resistance. This is insanity."

Ameen Abed: "I do not want to sacrifice my life, my home and house for anyone. Who are you to impose this kind of life on me? My home has gone because someone's imprisonment will end after four months, why? What did I benefit from?" While Hamas and even the Israeli hostages were in the underground tunnels, he said, Gazans were above ground with no protection from Israeli and U.S.-made bombs dropped over their heads every day. That is an oft-heard complaint by Hamas's critics in Gaza. "There is uncontrolled anger against Hamas. It threw the Palestinian people into the bottom of the well."

June 17, 2024 update: (1) David Petraeus, Meghan L. O'Sullivan, and Richard Fontaine: "The term 'regime change' has fallen out of favor in the past two decades, and it is not a term that Israelis use to describe the war they are waging in Gaza. But regime change is precisely what Israel is seeking. Its military operation in Gaza aims to destroy Hamas as a political and military entity and eliminate the de facto government the group has overseen for nearly two decades."

(2) Hamza Howidy, who describes himself as "a Palestinian from Gaza City" and an accountant and a peace advocate, endorses a decent Gaza. He calls for "a completely rebuilt Palestinian Authority," a phrasing I would avoid, but okay, so long as it has no connection to the existing PA:

The only real option is to hand over control of Gaza for an interim period to a completely rebuilt Palestinian Authority, with the assistance and supervision of the international community. But before assigning that role to the P.A., it must be pressured to submit a proposal to dismantle what remains of Hamas. The P.A. must also commit to putting an end to the so-called "Pay for Slay" program in which the P.A. pays for martyrs, prisoners, and their families. Instead, it must commit to investing this money in welfare programs to put an end to the aid dependency status that has spread throughout Palestinian society.

This new governing body should be controlled by its sponsors to ensure that it will begin to deradicalize Gazan society and supervise the NGOs to execute their tasks without being stopped by Hamas members. And it must ensure that Gazans have access to information that is not controlled by Hamas propaganda.

This is how you truly liberate both Israelis and Palestinians from the threat of Hamas. ...

It's crucial to provide protection for people who have publicly dissented and criticized Hamas during this war, and to protect their families and friends. International protection for free voices in Gaza is the only way to a lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians.

Freedom of speech, inquiry, assembly, and protest are the rights that come before all other progress. It is these rights which will enable us to promote, develop, and protect peace—through local Gaza communities capable of taking the lead following the interim period of rebuilding Gaza and deciding our own fate in the near future.

The major Palestinian parties will most likely have influence in Gaza following the conflict; thus, safeguards must be put in place to prevent unscrupulous and aggressive power brokers from crushing us and impeding progress.

June 19, 2024 update: Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, Israeli military's chief spokesman: "The idea that it is possible to destroy Hamas, to make Hamas vanish — that is throwing sand in the eyes of the public. If we do not bring something else to Gaza, at the end of the day, we will get Hamas."

June 23, 2024 update: The Wall Street Journal reports on a speech by the prime minister:

Netanyahu said Israel's military is working on a phased plan to establish Palestinian civilian control in the Gaza Strip, adding that he remains opposed to establishing a Palestinian state in the enclave or transferring control to the Palestinian Authority, which governs most Palestinians in the West Bank. He said the possibility that Israel would need to establish temporary military control over civilian life in Gaza is also being considered.

June 24, 2024 update: Shai Shabtai includes decent Gaza as one of five alternate futures for the territory:

The military-civilian alternative: In this option, Israel continues to hit the Hamas organization, both in its military capabilities and in its governance, until it is sufficiently weakened to allow local Palestinian elements to replace it on the ground, with considerable regional and international backing. This alternative is being promoted by Prime Minister Netanyahu and is reflected in key components of the cabinet's decisions.

He then assesses and endorses it:

This option provides a good answer to the core considerations of harming Hamas, and might even be tacitly accepted by the Americans and Arab and international actors. It does not, however, provide a solution to the problems of freeing the abductees and the fighting in the north. ... As of today, the option that best balances Israel's considerations is the military-civilian one.

June 25, 2024 update: National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi:

Hamas cannot be eliminated completely because it is an idea, and therefore an alternative idea is needed, and the alternative idea is a local leadership that can live alongside Israel and not invest in trying to kill Israelis. Any Israeli proposal will not materialize because anyone cooperating with it will lose legitimacy among the Palestinian public. The idea is that there will be a top-down process led by a coalition of moderate Arab countries together with the United States, Europe and the United Nations, with all parties having to take responsibility while leading the process of replacing Hamas. I don't know a single moderate Arab country that wants Hamas to survive; they want to see a moderate and pragmatic alternative to Hamas in Gaza. Those who will have to lead this process are a moderate Palestinian leadership with the backing of the moderate Arab countries.

His comments elicited various criticisms, as reported by the Times of Israel:

"It is expected that the head of the National Security Council explain his comments," Interior Minister Moshe Arbel wrote. "Hamas must disappear as an idea, just like ISIS and just like Nazism and slavery and other bad ideas. The National Security Council head doesn't have the mandate to make such a remark."

"It seems that Kadima and the disengagement are an idea. You can't make it disappear even when you come back to Likud," far-right Negev and Galilee Minister Yitzhak Wasserlauf wrote. He was referring to the defunct centrist party Kadima, of which Hanegbi used to be a member. The party was founded by the late prime minister Ariel Sharon following backlash from his Likud party over his move to withdraw from the Gaza Strip.

Far-right Settlements Minister Orit Strock added that Hanegbi must make a public clarification regarding his comment. "An idea can definitely be beaten – with the help of a better idea," wrote far-right Heritage Minister Amichay Eliyahu, who in November said Israel should consider using a nuclear bomb in Gaza.

June 26, 2024 update: (1) Lahav Harkov writes in Jewish Insider about a day-after plan "circulating in Israeli government offices [that] calls for the total defeat of Hamas, initial Israeli control of the territory and an overhaul of the Palestinian education system — along with a path for Gazan self-rule." In short, it's a close paralle to my "decent Gaza" idea.

Four academics jointly wrote the 28-page Hebrew-language paper, "From a murderous ideology to a moderate society: transforming and rebuilding Gaza after Hamas": Netta Barak-Corren and Danny Orbach of Hebrew University, Netanel Flamer of Bar-Ilan University, and Harel Chorev-Halewa of Tel Aviv University. Select quotes from the article:

"Israel's ability to achieve its goals depends not only on the military and diplomatic campaign taking place these days, but also on its ability to rehabilitate and transform a nation that was led by a murderous ideology, to produce stable institutions and an Arabic culture that does not educate for jihad, a culture that accepts the existence of the State of Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people."

"If there is no total defeat, there is no point in starting the attempts at deradicalization, rehabilitating systems, building new governing infrastructure and so on. History teaches us that rehabilitation under fire will fail."

Hamas' middle management should be left in place to run Gaza: "The 'technocrats'...who will be willing to accept the new reality will not be harmed and will be rewarded. Whoever resists with force will be severely punished."

"The window of opportunity for transformation and rehabilitation is short." Work towards changing Gazan society must start immediately after Hamas' defeat. This "requires civilian management, and the urgency of the timeline means that we must immediately start planning and establishing an effective and agreed-upon system for managing the Palestinian population in areas under Israeli control."

A delicate balance is needed, by which "successful transformation requires the creation of a positive horizon for the defeated nation," while "the option of Israeli military rule must float in the background."

"An autonomous Palestinian entity" – would come only when concrete and measurable goals are met, including education for peace, distancing itself from violence and terror and effective governance.

"Eradicating jihadist ambitions" can be achieved by overhauling the educational, religious and media systems. This includes "purifying the education system."

The new narrative would "lean on Sunni Muslim Arab tradition ... in its moderate versions in education and culture and grant the Palestinians a concrete, positive vision to latch onto for demilitarized Palestinian self-rule at the end of the process."

The paper discourages Israel's leadership from setting a goal of democratization for Gaza, saying that this is "a move that has failed in every place it was tried in the Arab world. The goal should not be turning Gaza into a Western democracy, but an Arab-Muslim entity that is moderate and not jihadist."

(2) The Wall Street Journal reports on a "bubbles plan" under discussion by decision makers:

it aims to work with local Palestinians who are unaffiliated with Hamas to set up isolated zones in northern Gaza. Palestinians in areas where Israel believes Hamas no longer holds sway would distribute aid and take on civic duties. Eventually, a coalition of U.S. and Arab states would manage the process. ... The Israeli military would continue to battle Hamas outside the bubbles and set up more over time as areas of Gaza are cleared. ...

Hamas vowed this week to resist Israel's plans and to "sever any hand of the occupation attempting to tamper with the destiny and future of our people."

July 2, 2024 update: Reuters finds that the inability of the Israeli military to destroy Hamas means that those Gazans most capable of working with Israel to administer the area are leery of doing so. Israel seeks

to shape an alternative civil administration involving local Palestinian actors who are not part of the existing structures of power, don't have ties to any terror organizations, and are willing to work alongside Israel.

For example, Defense Minister Yoav Gollant has stated that "The only solution for the future of Gaza is governance by local Palestinians. It cannot be Israel and cannot be Hamas." National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi said the government authorized the military to find "a local leadership, willing to live side by side with Israel and not to devote its life to killing Israelis." However, Reuters goes on,

the only plausible candidates in Gaza for this role – the heads of powerful local families – are unwilling to get involved, according to Reuters' conversations with five members of major families in Gaza, including the head of one grouping.

Israel has been "actively looking for local tribes and families on the ground to work with them," said Tahani Mustafa, senior Palestine analyst at the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank. "They refused."

They don't want to get involved, in part because they fear retribution from Hamas, said Mustafa, who is in touch with some of the families and other local stakeholders in Gaza.

That threat is real because – despite Israel's war objective of destroying Hamas – the Palestinian terror group still has operatives enforcing its will on the streets of Gaza.

Michael Milshtein of the Moshe Dayan Center concludes that "There is no vacuum in Gaza, Hamas is still the prominent power."

Comment: It appears that the IDF's unpreparedness in terms of planning, the training of soldiers, and materiel, has led to a potentially tragic circumstance where Israel cannot establish a decent Gaza but must accept continued rule by some combination of the Palestinian Authority and Hamas. This is very bitter news for Israelis and Gazans alike.

July 3, 2024 update: The BBC has collected anti-Hamas sentiments at "Hamas faces growing public dissent as Gaza war erodes support." Examples:

"I am an academic doctor. I had a good life, but we have a filthy [Hamas] leadership. They got used to our bloodshed, may God curse them! They are scum!" Seconds before the video ends, the speaker turns to the crowd. "I'm one of you, but you are a cowardly people. We could have avoided this attack!" The video went viral.

Residents told the BBC that swearing and cursing against the Hamas leadership is now common in the markets, and that some drivers of donkey carts have even nicknamed their animals after the Hamas leader in Gaza - Yahya Sinwar - urging the donkeys forward with shouts of "Yallah, Sinwar!"

"People say things like, 'Hamas has destroyed us' or even call on God to take their lives," one man said. "They ask what the 7 October attacks were for - some say they were a gift to Israel."

A senior Hamas official privately acknowledged to the BBC, months ago, that it was losing support as a result of the war.

Even some on the group's own payroll are wavering. One senior Hamas government employee told the BBC that the Hamas attacks were "a crazy, uncalculated leap. ... I know from my work with the Hamas government that it prepared well for the attack militarily, but it neglected the home front. They did not build any safe shelters for people, they did not reserve enough food, fuel and medical supplies. If my family and I survive this war, I will leave Gaza, the first chance I get."

Ameen Abed, a political activist, said he had been arrested many times for speaking out against Hamas before the war, but said - nine months on - dissent was becoming more common there. "In Gaza, most people criticise what Hamas has done. They see children living in tents, and insulting their leaders has become routine. But it has a lot of support among those outside Gaza's border, who are sitting under air conditioners in their comfortable homes, who have not lost a child, a home, a future, a leg."

One well-placed source told the BBC that dozens of people had been killed by Hamas in bloody score-settling with other local groups, after Israeli troops withdrew from one area.

The report ends with the observation that "Criticism of Hamas is growing sharper, and long-buried divisions over Hamas rule in Gaza are becoming clear. Out of the destruction left by Israel's battle with Hamas, a new war is emerging: a battle for control of public opinion within Gaza itself."

July 4, 2024 update: (1) Bashir Ziyadne, a Bedouin citizen of Israel whose family members were both murdered and taken hostage, rails against Hamas: "I see Hamas as a terrorist organization, so I don't expect much of it. ... Hamas does not really want peace or prosperity. It is a terrorist group run by fundamentalists who will destroy everyone and everything in order to achieve its goal, which is unrealistic, and quite horrifying as well."

(2) Palestinian Media Watch has collected attacks by the Palestinian Authority on Hamas. A selection:

  • Hamas serves their Iranian "masters," dead Palestinians are just "human sacrifices" – official PA daily
  • "The Palestinian people did not want Oct. 7, and it was not consulted with about Oct. 7" – Abbas' advisor
  • "One of the Hamas leaders... knows that the hell that his organization Hamas brought on the Palestinian people (i.e., Israel's response to Hamas' Oct. 7 massacre) is more difficult and terrible than the first Nakba of 1948 (i.e., "the catastrophe," of Israel's establishment), yet he accuses the PA of treason and describes it as 'protecting the security of Israel'"– official PA daily
  • Iran supports and "nurtures" Hamas and gives it "monetary and military aid," "plotting" to create "an alternative" to the PLO and the PA – official PA daily
  • "Iran is dictating to Hamas what it wants" – Abbas' advisor
  • Hamas "sentenced you [Palestinians] to death because they [Hamas] followed Khamenei and traded in your people" – Fatah
  • "Khamenei's sin against the Palestinian people is unforgivable" – official PA daily
  • Hamas will "assassinate" any PA/Fatah affiliated Palestinian who will be part of Israel's "alternative rule" in the Gaza Strip – official PA daily
  • Hamas is selfish – no Palestinian prisoner wants freedom at the price of tens of thousands of dead Gazan civilians – Fatah official
  • Iran never gave the Palestinian people anything, instead it funded Hamas, helping it to the coup in 2007 – Abbas' advisor

July 5, 2024 update: The IDF released a 49-second video clip showing violence by Hamas against men looking for food from a warehouse containing aid intended for civilians. JNS reports:

It begins with a blindfolded man, hands tied behind his back, sprayed with green paint that his captor uses to write Arabic letters on his back. A Hamas terrorist then strikes the captive in the head and yells at him.

A second blindfolded man pulled from the bed of a pickup truck is also shown with spray-painted words on his back. The video then moves to two blindfolded men on the ground, surrounded by a circle of masked men, as multiple terrorists beat them with clubs while they scream.

July 6, 2024 update: NBC News reports on Gazan fury at Hamas. Excerpts:

It's become a tragically familiar scene in the Gaza Strip: After seeing her slain son's corpse, a Palestinian woman screams in agony. Yet she points her anger not at the Israelis whose weapons killed him, but at Hamas. "I hope that God will destroy you, Hamas, like you destroyed our children," she yells in a video captured by NBC News crews in Gaza, her anger palpable, tears streaming down her face. Her startled companion reaches to cover her mouth, insisting the woman's teenage son died a martyr as she quickly ushers her away.

Her comments are a sign of the shifting times: Nearly nine months after Hamas' Oct. 7 terror attacks, people in Gaza are increasingly voicing frustration with [Hamas]. ... Dissent against Hamas' rule was once rare in the Gaza Strip, and speaking out remains risky. But the despair and chaos of war has cleaved open a small space for defiance.

Hamas' popularity in the enclave has sunk considerably in the months since the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel that saw 1,200 people killed and resulted in around 250 taken hostage. Only about a fifth of people in the enclave support those attacks, down from nearly half in November, according to polling conducted in May by the West Bank-based Arab World for Research and Development (AWRAD), an independent organization that conducted 1,500 personal surveys across the Palestinian territories.

The poll also showed that Hamas only has the support of about a quarter of residents in the enclave, where the death toll since Oct. 7 passed 38,000 this week, according to Palestinian health officials. "Hamas popularity among the populace who are actually living now in shelters, in tents and makeshift, you know, communities is declining," said Nader Said, the polling organization's president.

NBC then reports on the same video previously mentioned by the BBC on July 3:

In a separate video that went viral after it was posted to social media last month, a man can be seen screaming before a small crowd gathered in front of a hospital in Gaza. He identifies himself as an academic called Muhammad Judeh. His face and shirt were covered in blood. "We have a filthy leadership. They got used to our bloodshed," he said. "May God curse them. They are scum." Continuing his diatribe as worry washed over faces in the crowd, he said the Palestinian leadership of Gaza — referring to Hamas — has dealt unwisely with "the Zionists" — referring to the Israelis. Then he turns his rage on the crowd. "I'm one of you," he said. "But you are cowardly people. We could have avoided this attack."

Itaf Al-Hamran, a feminist and opposition activist,

said she first blamed Israel for the woeful circumstances that Palestinians in Gaza have endured for years. But she also faulted Hamas for executing its terror attack without the consent of the Strip's population nor adequate preparation for what the population knew would be a ferocious Israeli response. "We refuse to continue the war over our kids' and women's bodies and blood," Al-Hamran said. "Today Hamas has taken us 70 years back."

July 11, 2024 update: The always-insightful Khaled Abu Toameh provides a Gazan viewpoint on the "day after" discussion.

Many Palestinians are convinced that the "day after" in the Gaza Strip will be a return to the pre-October 7 era, in which the Iran-backed terrorist group still has control of the coastal enclave. For them, the "day after" means going back to the day before the Hamas-led attack on Israel.

Today, Palestinians fall into two groups: those who hate Hamas but think that under the current circumstances it is impossible to remove it from power, and those who want Hamas to stay in power because they embrace it and its extremist ideology.

The former "contend that, until the terrorist organization is totally destroyed, neither the Palestinian Authority nor any Arab state will be prepared to rule the Gaza Strip. And they do not see that objective being met more than nine months after the start of the war." Further, they are pessimistic that it will be achieved in the future.

July 12, 2024 update: Amin Abed, an anti-Hamas Gazan activist, addressing Hamas in a video:

You are partners of the occupation [i.e., Israel] in killing us. "Rabin and Shamir used the policy of bone-breaking against the Palestinian people. You have used the policy of breaking teeth and bones against me three times.

As long as this weak heart beats and this tongue speaks, you won't enjoy your abduction of Gaza's poor residents, whom you have been kidnapping and torturing for 17 years. As long as this tongue speaks and this heart beats with love for Palestine and its people, I will continue to speak out.

July 16, 2024 update: CIA Director Bill Burns told a closed-door conference, according to a source who attended, reports CNN, that Hamas leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar

is coming under increased pressure from his own military commanders to accept a ceasefire deal and end the war with Israel. ... [He] is not "concerned with his mortality" but is facing pressure about being blamed for the enormity of the suffering in Gaza.

Burns argued that this pressure "is new in the past two weeks."

July 18, 2024 update: IDF Spokesperson for Arabic Media Avichay Adraee released recordings of Gazans praising Israel's apparent assassination of Mohammed Deif, the Hamas military chief, and hoping the IDF will soon kill Yahya Sinwar, thereby bringing an end to the war. (Translated by Yonah Jeremy Bob.)

First transcript:

Palestinian 1: They have assassinated Deif.
Palestinian 2: God willing they will also kill Sinwar. What will I do with them? Congratulations to them!
Palestinian 1: God willing, god willing, I wish.
Palestinian 2: If only we can finally rest, its enough already.

Second transcript:

Palestinian 3: They have assassinated Mohammed Deif.
Palestinian 4: (Repeating to a third person/Palestinian 5) – They have assassinated Mohammed Deif. (Then turning back to Palestinian 3) Is it true?
Palestinian 3: Yes.
Palestinian 4: Things will be good. I wish, and then the war will end.
(Then there is a discussion to avoid going to the beach which might be unsafe).
Palestinian 4: Soon this should happen to Sinwar, god-willing.

July 23, 2024 updates: (1) The Center for Peace Communications sums up what anti-Hamas Gazans have been saying to parliamentarians in Germany, Italy, Spain, Canada, and the United States at "In Five Western Parliaments, Gazans Call for Enclaves of Post-Hamas Administration." In the words of Franck Muller-Rosentritt, a Christian Democratic Union MP in Berlin, "They're asking for something very practical. Cordon off an area where they can forge a decent, rules-based system, then let the population judge where it would rather live."

(2) Hamza Howidy, already cited twice in this blog, points to the social media post by his activist Gazan colleague, Amin Abed: "Hamas knew from the very first moment [on Oct. 7 that Israel would retaliate], but it was ready to give anything in return for the continuation of its rule, the hen that lays golden eggs for its leaders and its investments abroad." For this, Hamas thugs mercilessly beat Abed. Howidy himself, now safely in Germany,

maintains an English-language Twitter account where he documents the suffering of Gazan civilians at the hands of both Hamas and the IDF. He has also penned a number of op-eds in prominent magazines, chiefly among them Newsweek, and given interviews to international media outlets describing Hamas's terror rule over Gazans and chastising self-professed liberals on Western university campuses for hurting Palestinians by absolving Hamas of its crimes against them.

He speaks movingly about Gaza:

I feel deeply about my country, and I don't want it to be depicted as full of terrorists and terror supporters. I want people to see the other side. We have moderate people like every other country, but we don't have the opportunity to speak, nor the protection.

Read the full interview with Gianluca Pacchiani for many insights.

July 24, 2024 update: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the U.S. Congress: "Following our victory, with the help of regional partners, the demilitarization and deradicalization of Gaza can also lead to a future of security, prosperity and peace. That's my vision for Gaza."

Aug. 9, 2024 update: The Saudi magazine Al-Arabiya posted a video pastiche of three Gazan men yelling against Hamas.

Aug. 15, 2024 updates: (1) Slightly off-topic as it concerns a West Banker, not a Gazan, but in a lengthy interview with Bari Weiss of the Free Press, an unnamed young man who condemned the Oct. 7 massacre explains about the price he paid for his temerity.

(2) Abd Al-Salam Haniyeh, son of the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, berated his father in an interview for not taking the opportunities to improve life in Gaza:

Haniyeh: "If [my father] really cared about himself, he could have signed an agreement, and a red carpet would have been rolled out for him."

Interviewer: "Was he offered such a thing?"

Haniyeh: "He was offered many things."

Interviewer: "What, for example?"

Haniyeh: "He talked about what was offered to him as part of the Deal of the Century. He said that Kushner [told] a mediator that he wanted to come over, and reach an agreement about the Deal of the Century, and the establishment of a [Palestinian] state in Gaza, and billions would be spent on Gaza, and they would hand over the weapons of the resistance, and so on.

Aug. 28, 2024 update: The Center for Peace Communications posted a one-minute video of several Gazans complaining about Hamas stealing aid supplies.

Aug. 29, 2024 update: (1) Brig. Gen. Elad Goren of the IDF will oversee aid efforts in Gaza, the first time since Oct. 7 that a high-ranking officer has been assigned to manage Israeli activities in Gaza.

(2) News broke of the IDF finding a document in Gaza laying out how Hamas manipulates Khalil Shikaki's Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in Ramallah to provide the polling numbers it wants. According to the IDF,

These documents are part of a systematic process aimed at concealing the collapse of the organization and the decline in public support for it. The documents highlight the importance that the terrorist organization Hamas places on survey results to falsify Palestinian support and to influence the Palestinian public as well as Arab and international public opinion.

The statement goes on to explain the nature of the manipulation:

The documents provide no evidence of any cooperation between the polling institute and the organization's activities; instead, they detail covert measures taken by Hamas to influence the results deceitfully by affecting local factors on the ground.

More specifically, according to the Times of Israel, PSR "uses Gazan data collectors to conduct surveys in residential areas and shelters for displaced Palestinians, and it is thought that Hamas was able to take advantage of this to manipulate the results later sent back to Shikaki."

The captured Hamas document.

The original Arabic document is above; the English translation is available here. The IDF published a series of infographics highlighting the different numbers from a March 2024 poll. Here is one: "How would you rate your satisfaction with the performance of the Palestinian authorities?" Hamas roughly doubled the approval of Hamas from 31.9 percent to 62 percent and the approval of Yahya Sinwar from 22.1 percent to 52 percent.

Aug. 31, 2024 update: Michael Barak of Reichman University collected testimony from four Gazans "not afraid to reveal frustration and anger" toward Hamas. He concludes that

The willingness of Gaza residents to be interviewed condemning Hamas and its allies Iran and Hezbollah apparently points to the growing loosening of Hamas's rule in Gaza and the understanding that they will not find salvation in the continuation of the campaign.

Sep. 4, 2024 update: According to the New York Times, some Gazans "say they find the idea of Israeli soldiers staying on — and of the checkpoints becoming permanent — disturbing. But if that helps bring an end to the war, it is a price they are willing to pay."

"Of course I do not accept the presence of checkpoints on our return to the north," said Mohammad Qadoura, 40, who was displaced from his home in Gaza City. "But if this would lead to the end of the war, I would reluctantly agree."

Abdul Aziz Said, 33, a social worker from central Gaza, said that if an Israeli presence in the territory was "what it takes to end this war, I would totally agree." He added, "I want this war to come to an end now and at any cost." ...

Mohamed al-Sek, 44, a teacher and father of four from Gaza City who was displaced to central Gaza, said that he was not concerned about passing through Israeli checkpoints or being searched. He said that only those affiliated with Hamas should be worried. "My priority is to return to my home in Gaza City and restore my old life," Mr. al-Sek said. ...

Fadel al-Tatar, 47, said he believed that Israel wanted to "place its authority on Gaza," in a similar way to what it had done in the occupied West Bank, where Israeli checkpoints and settlements are widespread. "I am afraid of having more checkpoints in the future that will divide the Gaza Strip into pieces," he added.

Still, Mr. al-Tatar said that if a cease-fire deal was reached, he would go back to his home in the north "without caring about the procedures the army can place." He said that many others would also do the same, "leaving behind their makeshift tents and painful memories."

Sep. 8, 2024 update: A poll of Gazans conducted by the Arab World for Research and Development (AWRAD) finds extremely low support for Hamas.

  • "Which among the following do you trust the most to provide humanitarian assistance to Gazans at this time?" 1 percent named Hamas.
  • "Which among the following do you trust the most to lead recovery and rebuilding efforts in Gaza after the conflict?" Again, 1 percent named Hamas.
  • Of those who answered Palestinians to the question "Which among the following do you trust the most to provide the functions of government in Gaza?" 6 percent named Hamas as the Palestinian actor "you trust the most leading the governance of Gaza."
  • "Which political party are you most likely to vote for in an upcoming legislative election?" 6 percent named Hamas.

Sep. 10, 2024 update: Nasser al-Zaanin fled his home in northern Gaza in October and moved with his family into the Abdul Kareem al-Aklouk school that had been turned into a shelter. There, according to a New York Times account,

Hamas had wanted to station police officers at the shelter where he was staying. The group said it would ensure security, but he said the residents had gathered to stop that. "All the families agreed," said Mr. Zaanin, 56, who once worked as a civil servant for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza.

"We simply want to save all families, women and children and not let there be any potential threat against us because of the existence of police and members of the Hamas government," he said. The police, Mr. al-Zaanin added, could stand outside the building but not inside.

Several other residents of school shelters in central Gaza recounted similar stories, though attitudes in other areas were unknown. It is hard to know how widespread the phenomenon is, and whether the armed militia are from Hamas, Islamic Jihad or other armed gangs, but these residents' experiences suggest that at least some evacuees have blocked armed militias from moving into these shelters.

"We will quickly kick anyone who has a gun or a rifle out of this school," said Saleh al-Kafarneh, 62, who lives at another government school in Deir al Balah and said he locked the gates at night. "We don't allow anyone to ruin life here, or cause any strike against those civilians and families." A third resident, Mohammed Shehda al-Obwaini, 57, said he would fight any armed men if he found them in a school shelter.

The residents' testimonies also suggested that Hamas's grip on the enclave may be weakened by the war and that ad hoc community groups are starting to operate outside the organization's control, at least on a small scale.

Sep. 11, 2024 update: (1) The IDF revealed an internal Hamas document that stated:

We have lost at least 50 percent of our fighters between those who are martyred and wounded, and now we are left with 25 percent. The last 25 percent of our people have reached a situation where the people do not tolerate them anymore, broken on a mental or physical level.

(2) MEMRI sums up the reaction of Palestinian journalist Abd Al-Bari Fayyad to Hamas' August 29 murder of six Israel hostages as follows:

[He] harshly attacked Hamas and accused it of barbaric and inhuman behavior that contravenes international law, the Islamic shari'a and the tradition of the Prophet Muhammad. Writing on the Saudi news website Elaph, Fayyad stressed that the Islamic shari'a and the Prophet's tradition forbid murder and instruct to treat war prisoners humanely. Hamas, however, cruelly ignores these directives and prefers to promote its own interests and maintain its power in Gaza at the expense of the interests of the Palestinians, he said. Fayyad added that this deed may mark the end of Hamas' role in Palestinian politics, for the flames it has ignited with this murder are likely to consume it before they burn Israel.

Sep. 12, 2024 update: (1) A joint Palestinian-Israeli poll found that 32 percent of Gazans answered "definitely yes" to the question, "In general, do you think Palestinian suffering under the siege and blockade of the Gaza Strip justifies what Hamas did on Oct 7?"

(2) In a Center for Peace Communications video, "Gazans explain how UNRWA colludes with Hamas, represses Palestinians who oppose Hamas, and diverts humanitarian aid."

Sep. 13, 2024 update: In a rare acknowledgment of Hamas' viciousness, the New York Times has published a long, multi-authored article titled "How Hamas Uses Brutality to Maintain Power: The group has abused hostages and Palestinians in its efforts to maintain control of Gaza and wage an insurgent war." Some excerpts:

some Palestinians said in interviews that Hamas has put Gazans in Israel's cross hairs by launching attacks from neighborhoods, running tunnels under apartment buildings and hiding hostages in city centers. And Hamas is still able to inspire fear among the people it rules, despite the chaos that has taken hold across the territory. "There's no international law that justifies Israel killing civilians," said Mkhaimar Abusada, a professor of political science who fled Gaza early in the war. "But Hamas has acted recklessly."

Hamas's practice of operating from civilian areas of Gaza has drawn sharp criticism from Palestinians. "Those launching rockets and firing bullets from civilian areas don't care about civilians," said Abu Shaker, whose family has been repeatedly displaced. He asked to be identified by his nickname. "If you want to fight Israel, you should go do that. But why are you coming to hide among the civilians?" ...

Palestinians interviewed by The New York Times expressed frustration with Hamas, particularly over its practice of embedding in civilian areas. The Palestinians interviewed said that while Israel bore enormous responsibility for the suffering the war has brought upon them, Hamas did too. ...

Munir al-Jaghoub, an official in the Fatah party in the West Bank, blasted Israel for the deaths. But he also condemned Hamas. "Any soldier who wants to bear arms is required to protect civilians, not to hide among civilians," he said in a televised interview.

The article then goes on to give examples of how "Palestinians who protest face the threat of immediate retaliation." The authors tentatively state that "Mr. Sinwar is more interested in inflicting pain on Israel than uplifting the Palestinian people," an insight it attributes to "some U.S. and Israeli officials."

Sep. 17, 2024 update:According to the untrustworthy figures of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, Gazan support of Oct. 7 has nearly collapsed as the year's anniversary approaches. Asked, "In your view, was Hamas decision to launch its offensive against Israel on 7 October a correct or incorrect one?" 39 percent replied it was correct, 57 percent said incorrect. Here is the change over time:

Note the near-precise reversal of figures in the course of 2024.

Sep. 24, 2024 update: A Palestinian Authority television reporter states: "Many aid convoys are suffering from acts of piracy. There are robbers armed with firearms who steal the aid before it reaches the needy, and they take control of it... The merchants of war [i.e., Hamas] are taking the aid and selling it in the market at very high prices, even though it is written on them that they are aid supplies not designated for sale."

Oct. 7, 2024 update: Gianluca Pacchiani writes:

On the first anniversary of the October 7 attack, Gazan social media featured considerable criticism of Hamas for bringing devastation upon the Strip and its people, and of its leaders for living in safety while civilians endure hunger and displacement. ...

Starting on Sunday, various Gazan social media users began sharing posts and images recalling the invasion and slaughter in southern Israel, some of them critical. Gazan X user "Roufaida," for instance, wrote that the night of October 6, 2023, was "the last we were considered human beings, before being turned into numbers, and then into tools to apply pressure [on Israel], and God knows what we will become next." ...

Some [Gazans] referred to October 7 as the "first anniversary of Gaza's martyrdom." A Gazan X user under the username al-Aqra' ("the bald head") with 5,000 followers, wrote in his bio: "October 7 is a curse that robbed us of all our loved ones, our memories, our comfort and security." In a searing post against Hamas, he wrote: "[We have been living] a year in tents, you sick people, you bloodsuckers, who seized the money of Arab countries in the name of the resistance, you have millions in your bank accounts."

In another comment, "The bald head" wrote: "May God curse October 7 and everyone who planned it and supports it. Screw you, [Hamas leader Yahya] Sinwar. Screw you, [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu. May God let us all die and be relieved of all we are living through and seeing."

Many of the posts railing against Hamas carried the hashtags in Arabic "#the_seventh_of_my_shoes" (in lieu of "the seventh of October" – shoes are associated with dirt and humiliation in Arab culture) and "#we_are_not_your_people" — a message to Hamas leaders who claim to have carried out the unprecedented terror operation in the name of and for the sake of Palestinians.

A satirical account with 2,200 followers called "The Sieve" published a series of sarcastic posts against the terror group's leadership. The account shared an image of Sinwar fleeing through a tunnel, with the comment, "A year since the rat entered his hole. Happy new year to all Hamas supporters."

Irony appeared to be a coping mechanism adopted by many Gazans, both in the Strip and abroad. A popular Facebook account of an anti-Hamas activist living in Belgium with over 122,000 followers wrote: "People around the world renew their gym subscription, or their bus pass. In the Gaza Strip today, we renew our subscription to war for another year. Congratulations to us."

Another Gazan account under the name Kareem Jouda, with 2,600 followers on X, railed at Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya, who lives in Doha and released a statement on the eve of October 7 praising the "steadfastness" of the Palestinian people and claiming the unprecedented attack had brought Israel "to its knees."

Jouda wrote: "Khalil Al-Hayya is giving us sermons about victory and steadfastness on the anniversary of the seventh of our shoes, and he is addressing us assuming that we are his people. But we are not your people, Khalil!! You are just an Iranian mercenary who gambled with his people and the result was displacement, loss, catastrophe, a nakba and a naksa [the mass displacements of Palestinians in 1948 and 1967, respectively]."

The account also lashed out at Doha-based Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal, who declared on Monday that the October 7 operation took Israel back to "square zero" and "threatened its existence." In response, Jouda wrote: "October 7 gave the people of Gaza absolute defeat, and victory for Khaled Mashaal in Qatar. A leader does not burn down his country with its people. A leader protects his people and leads them to safety."

Oct. 14, 2024 update: The IDF reports, as explained by Arutz Sheva, that in a conversation between its representative "and a Gazan civilian during the evacuation, the Gazan civilian described how Hamas forces were hitting them with sticks in order to prevent them from evacuating from the area."

Oct. 25, 2024 update: Devorah Margolin and Neomi Neumann argue for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy that "despite the most intensive fighting in Gaza ending several months ago, the war is not over, and Hamas has not surrendered yet. While Israel continues to focus on maintaining a buffer zone and carrying out raids in order to prevent Hamas from rehabilitating militarily, it has not directed enough attention toward the movement's shadow governance."

Oct. 30, 2024 update: Gabi Siboni argues in "The Need for Temporary Military Rule in Gaza" that Hamas continues to dominate Gaza because it controls the humanitarian aid entering the area:

First, it sells part of the aid to Gaza residents at exorbitant prices to replenish its cash reserves, depleted by IDF actions targeting its finances and blocking money inflows. Second, Hamas uses humanitarian aid as a tool to recruit new members, promising a steady food supply to them and their families.

Siboni concludes that

Ensuring humanitarian aid reaches Gaza's population without interference from Hamas requires Israeli control over the territory, signaling to the population that Hamas's era in Gaza is over with no return. ... Removing Hamas's governance necessitates that the IDF directly oversee humanitarian aid distribution, essentially establishing a temporary military administration in areas under Israeli security control.

This rule should be temporary, "lasting only until Hamas' military and civil capabilities are fully dismantled. Once the area stabilizes without Hamas, alternative governance can be established while leaving security in the hands of the IDF." He faults COGAT and the defense minister for blocking "any discussion of a temporary military administration [and] creating public alarm by releasing exaggerated cost estimates." This "misled the public into seeing military rule as something that would the IDF to provide require full civilian services in Gaza."

Related Topics:  Arab-Israel conflict & diplomacy, Palestinians

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