In "The Rapid Return of Israel's Disastrous Policy," I document how - despite repeated calls for victory - the Government of Israel has in many ways returned to its failed pre-Oct. 7 ways. This weblog entry continues that documentation.
Dec. 1, 2023 addenda: (1) The Alma Research & Education Center published a report arguing that "Hezbollah's Radwan unit is capable of carrying out an invasion of the Galilee at any given moment."
Comments: (1) When added to Hamas' invasion on Oct. 7 and the Regavim report cited above, this means that three of Israel's borders were or are in imminent danger of invasion. (2) Ironically, the borders with police states - Egypt, Jordan, Syria - are relatively safe.
(2) A New York Times investigation adds information to the paragraph beginning "When Hamas drilled in plain sight." Its opening:
Israeli officials obtained Hamas's battle plan for the Oct. 7 terrorist attack more than a year before it happened, documents, emails and interviews show. But Israeli military and intelligence officials dismissed the plan as aspirational, considering it too difficult for Hamas to carry out.
(3) According to unnamed Israeli officials cited in the Wall Street Journal, under "orders from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's top spy agencies are working on plans to hunt down Hamas leaders living in Lebanon, Turkey and Qatar."
(4) It bears noting that at the same news conference where Netanyahu threatened Hamas leadeers "wherever they are," Israel's Defense Minister Yoav Gallant stated that Hamas leaders are living on "borrowed time. They are marked for death. The struggle is worldwide, both the terrorists in Gaza and those who fly in expensive planes."
Dec. 4, 2023 update: Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar vowed to assassinate Hamas' leaders: "In Gaza, in the West Bank, in Lebanon, in Turkey, in Qatar, everyone. It will take a few years, but we will be there in order to do it. The cabinet set a goal for us, to take out Hamas. And we are determined to do it, this is our Munich."
An unnamed Turkish intelligence official responded: "Necessary warnings were made to the interlocutors based on the news of Israeli officials' statements, and it was expressed to Israel that [such an act] would have serious consequences." The Anadolu news agency also quoted unnamed sources warning Israel against "engaging in illegal activities" in Turkey.
Dec. 15, 2023 update: Yoel Guzansky of the Institute for National Security Studies, suggests that the public statements by Netanyahu and Gallant threatening Hamas leaders were primarily for psychological effect, with no immediate plans to target them. "One of the reasons that I think Netanyahu and Gallant said it out loud, publicly, is that they want [the Hamas leadership] to feel chased, ... to feel fear. It's psychological warfare."
Jan. 13, 2024 update: Rubbing my eyes on reading this in the Times of Israel:
Netanyahu reportedly reached out to UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed asking if Abu Dhabi would be willing to finance unemployment benefits for the Palestinian workers in the West Bank. The Emirati leader flatly rejected the request.
Jan. 14, 2024 update: Israeli soldiers captured a wounded Hamas operative, an Israeli medical facility treated him, and then the IDF allowed him to return to the Hamas side where, presumably, he will again take up fighting.
Jan. 15, 2024 updates: (1) In a one-two punch, Israel's Defense Minister Yoav Gallant called for strengthening the Palestinian Authority and Shin Bet called on Israel to fund it.
(2) A car-ramming attack by two West Bankers in Ra'anana killed one and injured 17. In response, Minister without Portfolio Gideon Sa'ar said that "Letting workers from the territory of an enemy population into Israel during a war is a terrible mistake that will cost blood." Good to hear someone say that.
Jan. 17, 2024 update: MK Dan Illouz (Likud)
strongly opposes the opinion stated by a member of his party, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who supports permitting the entrance of Palestinian Authority Arab workers into pre-1967 Israel. "It's a terrible mistake," Illouz stressed. "Behind it is the same concept that existed before October 7, that you can buy peace with money. In one sentence the Minister said this week, he mentioned three things that are scandalous and should be precisely our 'red lines': bring in workers, transfer money to the Palestinians, and strengthen the Palestinian Authority."
Comment: The word "concept" in this quote translates the Hebrew word conceptzia. For an explanation of that, see the article to which this is a commentary.
Jan. 19, 2024 update: Former IDF chief of staff and current member of the War Cabinet Gadi Eisenkot: "For me, the mission to save civilians comes before killing the enemy. The enemy can be killed afterward."
Jan. 20, 2024 update: A Panels poll of Jewish Israelis concerning terms of release of hostages held by Hamas finds:
70 percent: do not pull out of Gaza
73 percent: do not accept Hamas' demands
79 percent: do not allow Hamas to remain in power
81 percent: military pressure is the way to gain their release
Jan. 22, 2024 update: CNN reports that "Israel has proposed that Hamas senior leaders could leave Gaza as part of a broader ceasefire agreement."
Jan. 29, 2024 update: Kan.org reports that Israel's security establishment announced right after Oct. 7
a new one-kilometer security zone in the Gaza Strip at the border with Israel to prevent Palestinians from approaching the fence, for fear that they were disguised terrorists - as happened before the Hamas attack on Oct. 7. However, as published this evening in the evening news at Kan 11, the IDF's open-fire instructions have changed in the last month, so that the new parameter is no longer enforced.
Jan. 31, 2024 update: Half of Israelis "are opposed to a hostage deal that would see an extended pause in fighting in Gaza and the release of thousands of Palestinian terrorists."
Feb. 23, 2024 update: Israel National News reports:
Israeli security services have been employing Arab contractors to install security systems and perimeter defenses in Israeli towns. The contractors hold Israeli citizenship and the systems to be installed are operated by Israeli security forces or private security contractors. One IDF soldier, who spoke on condition of anonymity since he had not been authorized to comment on the matter, claimed that part of the systems being installed could potentially be used to remotely disable the perimeter lighting, camera systems, and gates of a town.
Feb. 29, 2024 update: (1) Azmi Nafa is serving a 20-year sentence for a murderous Nov. 24, 2015, attack at the Tapuach Junction, in which he wounded four IDF soldiers. Nafa was shot in the head. He is now scheduled to undergo cosmetic surgery for the wound.
(2) The Government of Israel just sent $114 million to the Palestinian Authority, with more on the way.
(3) After three Palestinians murdered two Israelis in a shooting attack at a gas station near Eli on the West Bank, Public Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir commented that "The cabinet [needs to] forget about the conceptzia!" Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich added that he will demand that the cabinet "get rid of the conceptzia in the West Bank as well [as in Gaza]."
Mar. 1, 2024 update: A day after the IDF and Shin Bet announced that Israel's prisons are running out of space, therefore administrative detainees with a month or less left in detention were being released, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir expressed his outrage. He argued that space is not the issue but a "gesture" for Ramadan" beginning on March 10. Mar. 2, 2024 update: Ben Gvir adds, "Someone in Shin Bet believes we live in Switzerland." Mar. 3, 2024 update: Ben Gvir further adds, "If there is a shortage of space, release Jewish administrative prisoners, release tax offenders. Why are Arab administrative prisoners being released?"
Mar. 4, 2024 update: Israel's Beit Berl College discontinued the widely popular slogan since Oct. 7 "Together we will be victorious" in favor of "We will grow out of it together" because the first "was not an inclusive slogan" for Arab members of the college.
Mar. 12, 2024 update: Unbelievable: "Israeli security services are considering enlisting the aid of the Palestinian Authority in building the system that will be responsible for running the Gaza Strip and dispensing humanitarian aid. One of the names being considered is Majid Faraj, the head of PA intelligence and a close confidant of PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas."
Mar. 17, 2024 update: Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich on the IDF General Staff and IDF appointments after Oct. 7:
This General Staff, which completely failed on October 7, has brought upon us one of the greatest disasters in Israel's history, and it did not fail only on October 7; this is a long-lasting failure of a misconception that collapsed. This General Staff will not model the IDF into the next generation. It will not appoint the new commanders after the change. There is no more trust in them for this. Currently, we are totally supporting them to win the war; but nothing more than that.
Mar. 19, 2024 update: Netanyahu's office has stated that, "Regarding the Palestinian workers, following a request from security officials for a limited pilot, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that this will be presented for an initial discussion." I.e., West Bankers will be allowed to work in Israel to make up for the labor shortage since Oct. 7.
Mar. 19, 2024 update: "Tens of thousands of Palestinian laborers have been entering Israel to work" since Oct. 7 due to pressure from business interests, reports Israel's Channel 13.
The ban on using Palestinian labor imposed by the Defense Ministry and the army was meant to encompass almost the entire economy, but an exemption process was granted for hospitals, burial organizations, some essential businesses and other humanitarian necessities.
According to Channel 13, some 2,396 businesses and institutions have obtained exemptions, many of which cannot be described as having any humanitarian necessity.
Major Israeli companies such as food giant Osem, the Aminach mattress and furniture business, and the Berman bakery company have all managed to obtain permits to bring in workers.
Hotels, food producers, bakeries, a car mechanic, a window factory, an events production company and a trash processing company were all among those who've managed to obtain permits to bring in Palestinian laborers.
Mar. 27, 2024 update: Globes business daily reports that "Thousands of Palestinian workers are illegally crossing the Judea and Samaria security barrier every day to seek employment within Israel's pre-1967 lines, in defiance of a blanket entry ban imposed in the wake of Hamas's Oct. 7 massacre."
Mar. 30, 2024 update: Arutz Sheva reports that "female cadets from the officers' training school have been ordered to guard the Nukhba terrorists who took part in the October 7th massacre. The Nukhba force was considered the most elite of Hamas's troops."
Apr. 4, 2024 update: Israel Hayom reports that Israel's War Cabinet has approved
enlisting the help of Gaza residents affiliated with the dominant Palestinian Authority faction Fatah to secure the entry of humanitarian aid into the strip and prevent potential diversion to Hamas.
The move involves both Gazan security personnel linked to Fatah as well as the Palestinian Red Crescent aid group. Israel coordinated this effort with senior Palestinian Authority official Majed Faraj, the head of the PA's General Intelligence Service.
Just this past Sunday, these Fatah-affiliated elements secured the entry of trucks carrying humanitarian aid into Gaza City. According to Israeli security sources, the personnel were armed only with batons and no firearms. However, reports from Gaza indicate some of them were killed by Hamas members during the operation.
May 10, 2024 update: Ynet reports, as translated by IMRA:
In response to the sharp criticism leveled by Defense Minister Yoav Galant for his decision to delay the purchase of fighter jets from the US, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that "the State of Israel should allocate much more money to security, but not to a failed security as built in recent years according to the old concept of the leaders of the concept. Pouring a sea of money that will be swallowed up in some black hole of the security establishment, when it is really not certain that this money will give the citizens of Israel real security, is not serious." Smotrich claimed that Gallant "prefers not to recalculate a course and not to challenge the perceptions that led to a terrible security crash."
May 18, 2024 update: Jonathan Spyer of the Middle East Forum interprets Netanyahu's plan for a post-war Gaza.
His stated goal, of course, is "total victory" over Hamas. In reality, though, what appears to be emerging is a situation in which a truncated, half broken but still viciously repressive Hamas continues to be the de facto governing authority in Gaza. Israel, meanwhile, maintains freedom of operation throughout the Strip, striking Hamas and its leaders at will, with the involvement of only a limited number of forces. At the same time, an IDF zone of control along the Gaza border (on the Gazan side) prevents further October 7 style attacks on Israeli border communities. ... In fact, what this direction involves is something like the status quo ante bellum, with a much weakened but not destroyed Hamas. It is a return to what Israelis used to call "mowing the grass."
Comment: How depressing to imagine Israel returning to the old, failed policy of "mowing the grass."
June 16, 2024 update: In "Israel's Conduct of the War After October 7: Is This Carelessness or Wrongdoing?" Ron Tira capably reviews the government's and military's many failures during eight months of war. He even finds the incompetence after Oct. 7 to be worse than what preceded it, which is saying a lot:
A future investigating committee may define the processes that preceded October 7, 2023, and occurred during it, as carelessness. But it can be argued that the conduct of the war after October 7 is much more severe, and that the term "wrongdoing" better describes it than the term "carelessness."
June 17, 2024 update: "Close to 30 Palestinian terrorists receive benefits from Israel's National Insurance Institute, according to intelligence information uncovered by lawmaker Yulia Malinovsky (Yisrael Beiteinu)."
June 17, 2024 update: Ruthie Blum reacts to a statement by the IDF spokesman, Daniel Hagari:
The upper echelons of the IDF haven't exactly made a secret of their pre-Oct. 7 mentality. They could almost be forgiven for holding on to what has come to be called the conceptzia without even realizing it. That's how deeply ingrained it is in those who believed that Hamas was deterred right up until thousands of its bloodthirsty goons broke through the border fence and committed the worst atrocities against Jews since the Holocaust.
In fairness, the military elites weren't the only ones to cling to that conceptzia. They were, however, tasked with keeping the enemy from harming Israeli citizens. And that didn't work out so well, to put it mildly.
The least they could do, then, is to cease reverting to the conceptzia comfort zone, especially when addressing the country whose sons and daughters, husbands and wives and parents and siblings are either engaged in battle, evacuated from their homes, mourning the fallen or desperate to reunite with loved ones still in the hands of Hamas barbarians in Gaza.
Hagari pointed out, rightly, that the terrorist organization ruling the Strip is an "idea, a party." Sadly, so is the conceptzia, which often seems harder for him and Halevi to combat than Hamas. If this is the case, they need to be replaced with officers who—like our valiant soldiers on the ground—are not trapped in the old mind frame.
July 1, 2024 update: (1) Channel 12 News reports that Israeli forces can only target Hamas or PIJ members if they are part of an organized fighting force. Even armed Hamas members may otherwise not be eliminated.
(2) In a New York Times story on "Israeli Generals, Low on Munitions, Want a Truce in Gaza," comes this nugget among the overall sense of defeatism:
Until recently, the military publicly maintained that it was possible to simultaneously achieve the government's two main war goals: defeating Hamas and rescuing the hostages captured by Hamas and its allies during the Oct. 7 attack on Israel. Now, the military high command has concluded that the two goals are mutually incompatible, several months after generals began having doubts.
If accurate, this is stunning. Israel's top brass really thought that simultaneously negotiating with and destroying Hamas were compatible? Say it isn't so.
July 2, 2024 update: Israel's government has decided to provide Gaza with electricity, presumably at no cost to Gazans. An IDF statement explains the logic behind this move:
The eyes of the world, and certainly the eyes of the United States, were focused on the question of how we would handle the humanitarian and civilian aspects of the operation in Rafah. The purpose of the power hookup is to operate a water desalination plant that will provide drinking water to the area where most of the Gaza population now resides. This is water for sanitation and disease prevention - which will endanger both our soldiers and our hostages.
Members of both the government and the opposition savaged the move:
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich: "We've lost our minds completely. With our own hands, we are rehabilitating Gaza, before disarmament, and mainly the hospitals, which are the centers for terrorism. Mr. Prime Minister, stop this foolishness."
Member of Knesset Gideon Sa'ar: "It will be interesting to see on whom the responsibility will be placed this time. A government of fools with two left hands."
MK Avigdor Liberman: "The government of folly. After the release of the senior terrorist, the new Dr. Mengele, the director of Shifa Hospital, the government continues in the same direction. The infrastructure work in Gaza ahead of the expected connection to Israeli electricity are an even greater folly. The decision that must be made today is a complete disconnection between Israel and the Gaza Strip. No electricity, no water, no fuels, and no goods - a complete disconnection."
July 8, 2024 update: Jonathan Spyer: "The Hamas regime in Gaza has not been destroyed, which means for the foreseeable future the movement will remain the de facto governing power. Israel looks set to revert back to what PM Benjamin Netanyahu referred to in a recent speech as 'mowing the lawn'."
July 9, 2024 update: Outgoing head of the IDF Central Command Maj. Gen. Yehuda Fox accused Jewish West Bank residents of "adopting the ways of the enemy" and stressed the need for a "strong Palestinian Authority" to make possible the army's "ability to fulfill its tasks."
He also notes that "through the long years of complacency between 2006 and October 2023, Israel allowed Iran to build up two Islamist armies on its borders."
July 22, 2024 update: IMRA reports that the Israeli defense establishment asserted that "the IDF can retreat completely from the Gaza Strip for six weeks" if an agreement be signed to release the hostages, then go back in and finish off Hamas, assuming "that such a small period of time would not enable Hamas to recuperate in a critical manner via new weapons or the construction or renovation of smuggling tunnels."
July 26, 2024 update: IMRA goes on to comment:
the skill set associated with planning and executing a specific operation is not the same skill set required for setting policy. In fact, I would go so far as to say that a different skill set is required to either conclude that an operation is required or to approve, in turn, the operation planned by the security establishment. ...
time and again the Israeli security establishment makes the mistake of thinking that since they know how to plan and execute an operation, this somehow means that they are experts in setting policy. It is actually worse than that today. The Israeli security establishment is confident that they and only they have the skill set to set policy. In their eyes, the civilian leadership is at best a rubber stamp and at worst a nuisance to deal with.
July 31, 2024 update: I extend an apology to Benjamin Netanyahu. I ridiculed his Nov. 22, 2023, statement that he had instructed Mossad to target the heads of Hamas "wherever they are." With the execution of Ismail Haniyeh today in Tehran, I see he was serious.
Aug. 25, 2024 update: IDF Spokesman Daniel Hagari: "We remain committed to one central war objective - the return of the 109 hostages - and we will continue to make every effort to achieve this."
Sep. 4, 2024 update: (1) National Unity party chief (and former IDF chief of staff) Benny Gantz: "The hostages must be returned, even at a very heavy price."
(2) Defense Minister Yoav Gallant about operations in the West Bank: "We are mowing the lawn, [but] the moment will also come when we will pull out the roots."
Sep. 9, 2024 update: President Isaac Herzog: "If we want to recover the hostages, we need to be united with full force. The political system must unite entirely, go under the stretcher together, and make every effort to push decision-makers to bring the kidnapped and missing back home."
Sep. 9, 2024 update: MK Zvi Sukkot of the Religious Zionism Party demands that the IDF not compel Jewish communities on the West Bank to take in West Bank Muslim workers, which it in fact does.
the communities must enable the entry of Palestinian Arab workers even if they express explicit opposition to their entry. ...
Recently, the Karnei Shomron Local Council expressed its opposition to enabling Palestinian Arab workers into its territory for significant security reasons. Among others, the area where they work is within the community, in the heart of an industrial center visited by hundreds of residents every day, without any way to properly isolate the area. In this situation, the local council cannot provide optimal security and protection for its residents. It should be emphasized that the council is solely responsible for providing security in connection with the Palestinian Arab workers.
Despite the council's explicit objection to this decision, the army rejected its request and forced it to enable the entry of Palestinian Arab workers, while putting the council in charge of security, despite its inability to do so and the lack of resources required for that purpose.
This state of affairs, in which not only are residents of Judea and Samaria discriminated against in comparison to the rest of the country, but they are also forced to bring in Palestinian Arab workers, without being able to provide proper security. This is an unacceptable situation.
Sep. 16, 2024 update: Contrary to the wishes of Zvi Sukkot, a court decided that West Bank workers must be allowed into a community if the military approves their employment. As JNS observes, "Two surveys last year found that some two-thirds of Palestinians in Judea and Samaria support the Oct. 7 attacks."
Sep. 19, 2024 update: Nineteen members of Knesset signed a letter to the government, urging against working with Palestinian Authority forces.
P.A. personnel have already carried out attacks against Israelis. To let them operate among us while armed is a continuation of the dangerous [security] concept that brought us disasters in the past. History shows that every time the P.A. was given access to weapons, those weapons were eventually used against Israeli citizens.
They called for the government to "classify the Palestinian Authority as an enemy and act accordingly."
Sep. 21, 2024 update: Gideon Sa'ar on the security establishment's problems:
today Israel needs an updated security concept. This includes building the IDF as an army ready for future challenges after years in which a significant part of its systems were atrophied or corrupted. In my opinion, the person who serves in this role should not be a man of the security establishment, tainted by collapsed concepts, systemic failures, and systemic commitments and accounts. A Defense Minister is not simply a super-Chief of Staff.
The Winograd Committee's conclusions on the Second Lebanon War determined that there are significant advantages to having a Defense Minister who is not from the security establishment. According to the committee, "He may strengthen the guiding and supervising authority and emphasize the fact that civilian oversight is not military management." A Defense Minister does not need to be a former military officer or security system member. He needs to have a deep knowledge of political and security issues and experience as a member of the government. As the Committee also noted, the issue of excessive dependence on military recommendations has been (and still is) a well-known problem in Israel for many years. ...
Let's remember: Who were our great Defense Ministers? Almost all were civilians with a strategic understanding and deep comprehension of national security challenges. Conversely, during the tenure of Defense Ministers from the military, the greatest security and strategic failures occurred. Civilian David Ben-Gurion, not any general, shaped Israel's security concept during the years he held (in addition to the Prime Minister's office) the defense portfolio. I am not sure if the nuclear reactor in Iraq would have been destroyed if a security establishment figure had served as Defense Minister on June 7, 1981. After the resignation of Ezer Weizman, who opposed the strike, in May 1980 - luckily for us, Prime Minister Menachem Begin also held the defense portfolio. By the way: even the former Chief of Staff Yigal Yadin, who was the Deputy Prime Minister in Begin's first government, opposed the daring strike. So did the US administration," Sa'ar emphasized.
Civilian Moshe Arens was appointed as Defense Minister in the midst of the First Lebanon War after the removal of Ariel Sharon following the Kahan Committee's findings. Arens, when appointed, had no ministerial or cabinet experience. He also had no military experience. Before that, he served as Chairman of the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee and as Israel's Ambassador to Washington. Arens was one of Israel's best Defense Ministers. It's a pity Israel did not act according to his strategic wisdom (even when he was not Defense Minister), for instance in the 'Lavi' project issue, which led to his resignation from the unity government. Civilian Shimon Peres was appointed as Defense Minister immediately after the trauma of the Yom Kippur War, and he was the one who dealt with the army's rehabilitation. He was then a security hawk. Fortunately, his advice to launch the Entebbe raid instead of negotiating with the terrorists who hijacked the Air France plane was accepted.
The greatest military and strategic disasters in the history of the State of Israel occurred during the tenure of Defense Ministers from the IDF: the October 7 massacre, the Yom Kippur War, the hasty unilateral withdrawals from Gaza and Lebanon, the Oslo Accords. Events that led to the greatest bloodshed in Israel's history.
Oct. 7, 2024 update: An Israel Democracy Institute poll finds that 77 percent of Israelis say the "main goal" of the war in Gaza should be bringing the hostages home and 12 percent say toppling Hamas.
Nov. 4, 2024 update: Yaakov Lappin interviews Lt. Col. (res.) Amit Yagur, former deputy head of the Palestinian arena at the Israel Defense Forces Planning Branch and a former naval intelligence officer, who explains the deficiencies in Israel's policy in Gaza.
Yagur finds that the tactical operations have been "extraordinary" and "remarkable," but the strategic level "undermines the tactical level."
While there have been all kinds of unsuccessful attempts by the IDF to work with local clans, "I believe the IDF has not sufficiently pushed forward on this, and neither has the government," [Yagur] said. "They did not sufficiently understand the significance of it," he added.
The first step, he said, is removing Hamas's ability to steal and distribute humanitarian aid, and having the IDF take over distribution temporarily. Hamas must also be ejected from the remaining Gazan local municipalities, like in southern Gaza, he added. IDF senior command has resisted these ideas, citing a lack of resources.
