As Israel's attention begins to shift towards enemies other than Hamas - Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iran, and beyond - I worry that it is neglecting Gaza and that Hamas will survive to massacre another day. This weblog entry collects some indications of that problem.
A New York Times report suggests the problem:
nearly a year into the war, the civilian government still functions. Mr. [Ismail] Thawabteh, the director general of the Hamas-run government media office, said the government still employs thousands of people, helps distribute aid and organizes Friday prayers. Security services continue to try to enforce the law, he added.
Government-run emergency committees help secure aid and maintain order, Mr. Thawabteh said. "The government in Gaza is living through a time of challenges," he said. "But it's still in place carrying out its duties every day."
Hamas is not the only group active in Gaza. Palestinian Islamic Jihad, a Hamas ally that participated in the Oct. 7 terror attacks, remains strong. Armed gangs and neighborhood committees operate throughout the territory, with some also making threats and carrying out revenge attacks.
American officials say the groups operate with the implicit blessing of Hamas, though its precise level of oversight and control of them varies from group to group. But Mr. Sinwar is the unchallenged leader of Gaza. While his day-to-day control of the government is attenuated, as he tries to avoid being captured or killed by Israel, he still sets the broad goals and policies for Gaza, according to officials briefed on the intelligence.
Aid agencies trying to deliver humanitarian relief to Gaza acknowledge Hamas's continued control. Aid convoys must coordinate their efforts with local Hamas leaders, or risk the aid not getting through. Efforts to have Gazans who are aligned with the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority help secure aid convoys have fallen apart. American officials say Hamas hostility and threats on those convoys shut down the effort.
(September 13, 2024)
Sep. 17, 2024 update: Another New York Times report elaborates.
- Khaled Meshal of Hamas: "Hamas has the upper hand. It has remained steadfast" and it brought the Israeli military into "a state of attrition."
- Ghaith al-Omari of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy: Hamas leaders "completely feel time is on their side. They think they're the only game in town."
- Maj. Gen. Gadi Shamni, a former commander of the Israeli military's Gaza division: "Hamas is winning this war. Our soldiers are winning every tactical encounter with Hamas, but we're losing the war, and in a big way. ... There's no one that can challenge Hamas there after Israeli forces leave."
- Akram Atallah, a columnist for the Ramallah-based Al-Ayyam: "If the war ends now, it would be a victory for Hamas."
Sep. 28, 2024 update: I published an article building on this topic today, "Questioning Israel's War on Hezbollah."
Sep. 30, 2024 update:
Headline: "Israel Sends Troops Into Lebanon, Escalating Fight Against #Hezbollah. First big incursion in two decades fans fears of wider regional war."
I don't so much fear a wider regional war as that supposed @PotteryBarn slogan, "You break it, you own it." Israel has enough... pic.twitter.com/1TUnsvFgLt
— Daniel Pipes دانيال بايبس 🇺🇦 (@DanielPipes) September 30, 2024
Oct. 4, 2024 update: Today's headline: "Hamas Leader Is Holding Out for a Bigger War, U.S. Officials Say."
Oct. 6, 2024 update: More proof, if needed, that Israeli operations in Gaza are far from over: "Israeli forces redeploy to northern Gaza to quell Hamas resurgence."
Oct. 15, 2024 update: Israeli inattention to Gaza has prompted a highly unusual joint letter from the U.S. secretaries of state and defense warning that unless Israel address the "deteriorating humanitarian situation" in Gaza, they will reassess the provision of American armaments to Israel. Put differently: Defeating Hamas and establishing a decent administration in Gaza must be Jerusalem's immediate priority, not cleaning up Lebanon.
Nov. 5, 2024 update: "Though battered, Hamas still able to function in central Gaza," reads a Times of Israel headline.
Dec. 31, 2024 update: Yaakov Lappin finds that when the IDF took off for Lebanon and left areas of Gaza without sustained security operations, this invited "Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) to move back in, ultimately increasing the cost of restoring order."
During the eight months leading up to the 162nd Division's return to Jabalia, Hamas and PIJ took full advantage of the IDF's absence to reestablish their infrastructure for recruitment, training and operational planning.
According to military sources, Hamas has recruited untrained individuals, paying them to join its ranks and equipping them with basic weaponry, including AK-47s and RPGs. These recruits, though minimally skilled and instructed to attack IDF units on sight, are willing to engage in dangerous missions, posing serious threats to Israeli forces.
The operational vacuum also allowed Hamas to strengthen its control over civilian areas and transform critical infrastructure into military assets.
He concludes:
Prolonged absence allows terrorist organizations to regroup, rearm and refine their tactics, leading to greater risks and higher costs when security must eventually be restored. The time and resources required to dismantle the Hamas and PIJ networks in Jabalia are a direct consequence of the operational vacuum left by Israel's previous withdrawal. ...
The IDF cannot afford to leave areas in Gaza free of security operations for extended periods of time. Only by continuously responding to intelligence regarding developing threats, as the IDF does on a nightly basis in Judea and Samaria, can Israel ensure that Hamas and PIJ are unable to reestablish their networks and pose a renewed threat.
Jan. 10, 2025 update: Yoni Ben Menachem reports that
Hamas has recruited approximately 4,000 fighters over the past month. This rapid expansion bolsters its fighting capabilities and complicates Israel's efforts to apply military pressure on Hamas to expedite a hostage deal. Currently, Hamas is estimated to have about 20,000 armed fighters in Gaza, along with a stockpile of scores of rockets that it sporadically launches into Israeli territory. The Palestinian Islamic Jihad organization also retains about 4,000 armed fighters in the Strip.
Jan. 13, 2025 update: A Wall Street Journal analysis finds that Israel's 15-month military campaign in Gaza has
created a new generation of willing recruits and littered Gaza with unexploded ordnance that Hamas fighters can refashion into improvised bombs. ... [Israel's] military has battered the group in Gaza, but for months has had to return to areas it previously cleared of militants to take them on again in new fighting. That cycle points to the difficulty of ending a war that has exhausted Israel's troops and continues to imperil hostages still held in Gaza.
"We are in a situation where the pace at which Hamas is rebuilding itself is higher than the pace that the IDF is eradicating them," said Amir Avivi, a retired Israeli brigadier general, referring to the Israel Defense Forces. "Mohammed Sinwar is managing everything."
See the article for much more detail.
Jan. 20, 2025 update: According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, Hamas "remains the dominant power in [Gaza]. Israel hasn't been able to destroy the group or empower an alternative."
Jan. 22, 2025 update: A Times of Israel report agrees: "The Palestinian terror group's gunmen are guarding aid convoys on Gaza's dusty roads, and its blue-uniformed police once again patrol city streets, sending a clear message: Hamas remains in charge."
