What if NIE is a bluff?

Submitted by Noach Stern (Australia), Jul 16, 2008 at 20:45

I know this comment is a little belated, but bearing in mind Dr Pipe's point that continuous re-evaluation is the order of the day, I would like to add another question to the many which beset this document's first appearance.

What if there was a covert intention behind NIE, namely (in John Le Carre style) to precipitate the actors into involuntary reactions to their own cost? Take for example, Iran's consequent increased bravado and scorn for Western intelligence and strategy? That this exercise was costly to the West is plain to see, as we become foolishly "like grasshoppers in our own sight" compared to the determination of its enemy.

But is there no benefit?

I wouldn't like to be seen as buying into conspiracy theories. However, if military intervention is better sooner and harder, would not this option appear to have risen to the top in equally as timely a fashion? In fact, partly due to NIE, there now is no other option left.

Over to you.

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