69 million page views

Iran, Israel, Turkey and the Samson (nuclear) option

Reader comment on item: Thoughts on the P5+1 Negotiations with Tehran
in response to reader comment: Iran Will Eventualy Think Getting American Indulgences Was Not All That Virtuous After All

Submitted by Michael S (United States), Jan 3, 2015 at 15:34

Hi, Tovey

Obama is a dangerous person; but unless he does something completely madcap, such as attempting a putsch, I have largely discounted him. He surrounds himself with advisors, who largely echo his own preconceived notions but are pretty amateurish at foreign policy. The more we focus on him and his, the more we lose the big picture.

It seems clear, that Obama wants to somehow magically reform the Iranians into harmless pawns, then leave them in charge of the Middle East as his henchmen. It's obviously a stupid policy, that will not work. The Iranians, meanwhile, keep stringing him along. This makes the American leader look (to world leaders) like a fool and (to Iranians) a plaything of the Ayatollah. I don't see why they shouldn't play this game forever, for its own sake.

Meanwhile, these Islamic Zoroastrians keep playing with fire (pun intended). They will probably eventually perfect a nuclear weapon, plus delivery system. I don't know how this will pan out. Just conducting a test explosion, whether successful or not, is bound to get the regional powers scurrying into action. The Saudis will likely take delivery of bombs from Pakistan and mount them on their missiles (pointed at Iran AND Israel); the Turks, under their current power-drunk dictator, Erdogan, could do anything. The Egyptians will probably want a bomb of their own; but someone will have to foot the bill and I don't know if there are any takers for that.

The Israelis? My gut feeling is that they will do nothing, waiting until the last minute to exercise the Samson option. If they have ANY sense at all, which I often wonder about, they will enhance that option so they can simultaneously deal not only with the Iranians, but their enemies in Europe, East Asia and North America as well; because when Iran attacks them, the US and its minions, as well as the Russians and Chinese, will be entirely responsible for having allowed it. It would be a supreme travesty of justice, for Israel to let us off the hook on this one.

Israel has many options. It does not have nuclear submarines, nor can it conveniently place its dolphins in distant waters. Conceivably, it could make up for this with clandestine submarine tenders, strategically located. Enhancing its ICBM capacity, to carry heavier loads longer distances, looks like a good option; and this can be supplemented with orbiting bombs. Only a few of these, detonated at high altitude, can drive the great powers all back to the stone age, with perhaps a billion deaths. Stealthily converting commercial airliners into one-way bombers, 9/11-style, is also a possibility; and the Israelis are well-known for their ingenuity: If I can think of these things, they certainly can; and they can implement them.

I think the Iranians will count on Israel not attacking them; and if the Israelis have the sense to develop a formidable stealth option, I don't think Iran will attack them -- at least not in such a way that they can be fingered as the culprits. Meanwhile, they will most probably develop their own "Samson option", improving their own ICBMs, etc. to be able to attack the US. By the time they have those techniques perfected, hopefully, Obama will no longer be in office.

Turkey's role in all this is a mystery. Turkey has a substantial navy, and other conventional forces. There is some mystery about its nuclear capabilities:

The United States plans to upgrade the B61 bombs to the B61-12 and hopes to begin their integration on NATO dual-capable aircraft in 2015, completing the process by 2018. [7] Currently, both U.S. aircraft and some Turkish F16s can carry the B61, however, there is some speculation over whether Turkey still maintains an operational link with the B61s on its territory. According to a former commander of the Turkish Air Force, Turkey's nuclear role in NATO strike plans ended in 1995 when all B61s were removed from national bases and consolidated at the U.S.-operated base at In cirlik. [8] One expert asserts Turkey decertified its dual-capable F16s sometime thereafter for fiscal reasons. [9] Yet Turkey is at least retaining the option to re-establish an operational link in the future, as Ankara released plans in 2014 to procure 100 F35s, which are set to replace existing dual-capable aircraft across Europe. [10] The government purchased its first two F35s in May 2014. [11]
-- http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/turkey/

Turkey is already linked to Iran via Sudan as an intermediate. In places like Gaza and Libya, Turkey provides diplomatic support while the Sudanese smuggle in Iranian and Chinese weapons. With this military infrastructure already in place, Turkey is only a snap decision by Erdogan OR the Iranians away from forming an effective alliance, in which case Israel would immediately be in great peril

.Judges 16:
[30] And Samson said, Let me die with the Philistines. And he bowed himself with all his might; and the house fell upon the lords, and upon all the people that were therein. So the dead which he slew at his death were more than they which he slew in his life.

Submitting....

Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments".

Submit a comment on this item

Reader comments (27) on this item

Title Commenter Date Thread
Where Is the Fatwa [53 words]Michael J. CaseyMar 26, 2015 12:50222497
Other ways to thwart Iran [40 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
Peter ChewDec 16, 2014 12:57219804
Size, in this case,doesn't mean anything. [55 words]josef zuaresNov 30, 2014 05:35219562
1A total failure. [96 words]NuritGNov 30, 2014 01:32219560
1A Joint Saudi-Israeli Strike? [59 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
AlexNov 29, 2014 01:45219549
2Obama has the virtue of consistency [119 words]Doug MayfieldNov 28, 2014 17:45219542
Iran Will Eventualy Think Getting American Indulgences Was Not All That Virtuous After All [178 words]M. ToveyDec 8, 2014 10:45219542
Iran, Israel, Turkey and the Samson (nuclear) option [855 words]Michael SJan 3, 2015 15:34219542
Wait for It- Do Not be Russian to the Conclusion [222 words]M. ToveyJan 6, 2015 19:04219542
Turkey, etc. first, then America et al [862 words]Michael SJan 7, 2015 05:24219542
1Saudis really don't have the means? [24 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
MarkNov 27, 2014 09:00219511
Saudi really don't have the means ?? [52 words]Carlos de SouzaNov 30, 2014 06:54219511
Not many countries could take on Iran [236 words]Michael SJan 19, 2015 04:52219511
Who could take on Iran ?? [57 words]Carlos de SouzaJan 19, 2015 20:28219511
Israel's secret weapon [205 words]Michael SJan 22, 2015 08:08219511
1God is on Israel's side !!! [60 words]Carlos de SouzaJan 22, 2015 22:32219511
The Turkish-Iranian invasion of Israel will be bloody [869 words]Michael SJan 28, 2015 05:11219511
1Israel and the Iranian bomb !! [90 words]Carlos de SouzaNov 27, 2014 04:14219510
Thank you for your service [37 words]Jay AbouafNov 27, 2014 03:11219508
two points [234 words]Comment from IsraelNov 27, 2014 02:26219506
Hopefully, Netanyahu Learned Not to Tell Obeyme [21 words]FactsRuleNov 27, 2014 01:56219505
3Iran will get the Nukes [54 words]Michael Hanni MorcosNov 27, 2014 01:18219504
1sanctions irrelevant? [121 words]David BlochNov 27, 2014 01:14219503
The Problem with Focusing on Iran [5 words]LindaKNov 26, 2014 22:38219498
2Senator Graham To The Rescue, I Hope [94 words]DaveNov 26, 2014 22:31219497
He is forcing us to destroy Iran. [7 words]Robin RosenblattNov 26, 2014 22:07219496
1Qom, but Qom prepared [106 words]MAHAMUNINov 26, 2014 21:59219494

Follow Daniel Pipes

Facebook   Twitter   RSS   Join Mailing List

All materials by Daniel Pipes on this site: © 1968-2024 Daniel Pipes. daniel.pipes@gmail.com and @DanielPipes

Support Daniel Pipes' work with a tax-deductible donation to the Middle East Forum.Daniel J. Pipes

(The MEF is a publicly supported, nonprofit organization under section 501(c)3 of the Internal Revenue Code.

Contributions are tax deductible to the full extent allowed by law. Tax-ID 23-774-9796, approved Apr. 27, 1998.

For more information, view our IRS letter of determination.)