69 million page views

The power of exponential growth

Reader comment on item: Iran's Christian Boom

Submitted by Malcolm Smith (Australia), Jul 1, 2021 at 19:52

No doubt many of you, as children, would have been given the following exercise. For a month's wages, would you prefer to be paid (a) $1,000 a day, or (b) one cent the first day, two cents the second, and so on, doubling the pay every day? If you chose the second option, you would receive only a paltry $5.12 on day 10, but for day 30 your wages would be more than half a million dollars. Such is the magic of exponential growth.
Now, consider the one cent on the first day as the mustard seed of Matt. 13: 31-32. If a religion grows by just 50% per generation, relative to the population, then, from a baseline of a few hundred or few thousand followers, it will remain insignificant for a long time. But once it reaches one percent of the population, it is on track to reach five percent in 100 years, and 25% in 200. And in 300 years ...? And there is also evidence that, at specific times and places, Christianity have expanded much faster. In The Rise of Christianity, Rodney Stark has demonstrated that the history of the religion in the Roman Empire is consistent with a growth rate of 40% per decade. Thus it was that, by the third century, the Roman authorities discovered that a movement, originally no more than an irritant, was now too large to stop. Closer to our own times, in the 1980s, commentators began to notice that sub-Saharan Africa was rapidly turning Christian.
What more needs to be said? In every country, a point is reached where the question becomes, not "Why should I become a Christian?" but "Why should I stay with the old religion?" Soon the growth of Christianity in Iran will reach a level at which the mullahs will need to apply extreme repression if they will have any hope of stopping it. Even then, it may be too late. In every country, a point is reached where the question becomes, not "Why should I become a Christian?" but "Why should I stay with the old religion?"

Submitting....

Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments".

Submit a comment on this item

Reader comments (38) on this item

Title Commenter Date Thread
3Light of dawn; In Pakistan [96 words]PrashantAug 11, 2021 09:47272184
Seeking the True Light [534 words]M ToveyAug 12, 2021 12:33272184
HISTORY IS SUPPORTING ME [312 words]DEBANJAN BANERJEEJul 13, 2021 01:44269967
What to Fear from History if Not Propery Understood [224 words]M ToveyJul 13, 2021 12:54269967
The experience of Reza Aslan [388 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
DEBANJAN BANERJEEJul 9, 2021 11:03269809
Conversion to Evangelistic Tendencies Does Not Always Save. [265 words]M ToveyJul 10, 2021 10:42269809
3Dreams [71 words]JeffJul 10, 2021 19:12269809
2Wishing evangelicals in Iran God speed [111 words]PrashantJul 11, 2021 03:52269809
History supports me [110 words]DEBANJAN BANERJEEJul 12, 2021 05:46269809
Secondary Implications of Iran's Messianic Believership Overlooked [130 words]M ToveyJul 12, 2021 11:28269809
History Does Not Favor Humanity - Empires Have Never Favored Humanity [427 words]M ToveyJul 12, 2021 13:45269809
1Dreams support you [196 words]JeffJul 13, 2021 00:21269809
A reply to Mr Jeff [149 words]DEBANJAN BANERJEEJul 13, 2021 12:52269809
Visions Versus Dreams and Why History Validates Neither [186 words]M ToveyJul 13, 2021 14:15269809
Dear Mr Pipes opts for a choice [124 words]DEBANJAN BANERJEEJul 13, 2021 22:08269809
Misunderstanding True Purpose of Zionism [118 words]M ToveyJul 14, 2021 13:01269809
4Thank God for Debanjan Banerjee [149 words]PrashantJul 16, 2021 14:48269809
2Bad news for Debanjan Banerjee [190 words]PrashantAug 12, 2021 22:24269809
The power of exponential growth [351 words]Malcolm SmithJul 1, 2021 19:52269376
Further Contemplation on Prophetic Implication of 'Messianic' Movement [262 words]M ToveyJul 1, 2021 16:20269370
The mullahs don't care [35 words]OmbudJun 30, 2021 18:13269331
Religion in Autocratic and Oligarchic Terms-Dangers of Humanly Ordered Theocracy [290 words]M ToveyJul 1, 2021 13:23269331
Discerning Relevance of Religious Resurgence [180 words]M ToveyJun 28, 2021 16:42269182
5Fall of the Mullahs. [46 words]Reynald de ChatillonJun 26, 2021 03:12268959
Circumstances Less About the Fall of Mullahs; More About Who They Take With Them [268 words]M ToveyJun 27, 2021 01:18268959
5A good and accurate report [173 words]Mark DurieJun 25, 2021 02:28268836
2It is important to discuss the underlying cause [107 words]PrashantJun 25, 2021 02:11268834
Power of the Word - The Right WORD [158 words]M ToveyJun 25, 2021 18:28268834
1OK As Far As It Goes, But... [67 words]Gary SackJun 24, 2021 18:08268822
4Popular discontent also aiding Israeli sabotage [251 words]DaveJun 24, 2021 17:51268819
10"Wrong Cults" (فرقه ضاله in Farsi) [295 words]RobertJun 24, 2021 16:57268818
Persian Influences are Complex - Islamic Inferences Notwithstanding [251 words]M ToveyJun 24, 2021 20:28268818
3Look at the bright side [43 words]DaveJun 25, 2021 09:20268818
4Law, Love, and the Sword of Muhammad [46 words]RobertJun 24, 2021 13:19268813
2Power of The Gospel Knows No Limits [159 words]M ToveyJun 24, 2021 10:55268806
4Islamic Reformation [61 words]David RyanJun 24, 2021 10:25268805
1Thoughts on Reformation [48 words]KephaJun 25, 2021 11:49268805
2Islam has already had a Reformation [107 words]Malcolm SmithJun 27, 2021 17:11268805

Follow Daniel Pipes

Facebook   Twitter   RSS   Join Mailing List

All materials by Daniel Pipes on this site: © 1968-2024 Daniel Pipes. daniel.pipes@gmail.com and @DanielPipes

Support Daniel Pipes' work with a tax-deductible donation to the Middle East Forum.Daniel J. Pipes

(The MEF is a publicly supported, nonprofit organization under section 501(c)3 of the Internal Revenue Code.

Contributions are tax deductible to the full extent allowed by law. Tax-ID 23-774-9796, approved Apr. 27, 1998.

For more information, view our IRS letter of determination.)