Unfortunately Mr. Pipes is Right

Submitted by Jonathan Keiler (United States), Jul 18, 2006 at 11:04

There is little to suggest that Israel's current offensive will reverse the Israeli trend towards retreat and appeasment evident since 1993. Most notable is the Israeli refusal to reenter Lebanon with ground forces, the only sure way to actually crush Hezbollah. (Israel doesn't have to remain in Lebanon, just stay long enough to do the job--a large devastating punitive raid.)

Expect Hezbollah's rocket offensive to fizzle out in the next few days and the group to go to ground as the air assault continues. If Hezbollah emerges with even one third of it's arsenal intact, and its leadership in place, it will have won. Expect the Olmert government to declare victory, and then after a "decent interval" conduct another disastrous prisoner exchange. In a year or two, maybe less, Hezbollah will be resupplied and looking for trouble again.

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