Yeah True, But What If ....

Submitted by Lars Nielsen (Denmark), Oct 24, 2006 at 16:11

The idea of coalition forces withdrawing to the desert seems very attractive, and maybe it is, but I think, that Daniel Pipes should comment on, what should be the goal for such an operation ?

As I se it, there are two strategic goals, which should be obtained:

- Iraq shall revive as a major oil producing country

- Iraq should have a government, which is Pro-West, anti-Iran, anti-Syria and neutral or friendly to the rest of the region.

Now, can Iraq revive as a major oilproducing country, if coalition forces retreat to the desert ? Only if the iraqi government is able to secure the oilfields, pipelines and so forth. But if coalition cannot secure the oilproduction today, how should an iraqi Pro-West government be more succesfull ? Is it at all posibble for a Pro-West governmemt to stay in power without massive western support ?

Then, what are the alternatives:

- a governmemt run by Al-Qaida or Anti- Western parties ? If so, what should coalition forces achieve by staying in Iraq ? Can they achieve anything, which would make their presence worthwhile ? What would happen, if an Anti-Western iraqui government appealed to the Security Council for dragging the coalition forces out ?

- No government, but a breakdown of Iraq into a Kurdish, a sunni, and a shi'ite state fighting each other ? What would Turkey and Iran do to a curdish state ? How would a shi'ite state react towards Iran ? Could a sunni state survive economically without the two other oil producing parts of Iraq ?

These and maybe other questions should be answered before retreating to the desert.

Maybe, mr. Pipes would answer them ?

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