The troubling scene along Poland's border with Belarus turned the problem of illegal migrants into political ammunition. It changed attitudes with likely long-term implications for immigration to Europe.
Immigration has become an ever-growing, impassioned issue that divides Europeans. Broadly speaking, the Establishment (what I call the 6Ps: the police, politicians, press, priests, professors and prosecutors) welcome immigration, legal or not, as a source of vitality for an increasingly aging continent, an engine of multicultural diversity and a way for former imperialists to assuage their consciences. In contrast, a growing body of dissidents sees immigration as a source of crime and disease, a challenge to traditions and a civilizational threat.
This debate peaked in 2015-16, when Angela Merkel, the powerful chancellor of Germany, unilaterally opened her country's borders to migrants, dragging much of Europe with her. As illegals became legals, the split in attitudes among Europeans became more intense, with a Willkommenskultur—or welcoming culture—emerging in Germany even as fences went up around Hungary.
And in mid-2021, the dictator of Belarus, Aleksandr Lukashenko, perhaps with Turkish assistance, came up with a clever idea. To reverse European Union (EU) economic sanctions imposed on him in retaliation for a cooked election, he jacked up visa charges, invited one and all from around the world to fly legally to his country and be bussed to the border with his EU member neighbors: Poland, Lithuania, or Latvia. Once there, the estimated 7,000 migrants—primarily but not exclusively Muslims from the Middle East—rushed the razor-wire fence, sometimes wielding Belarus-supplied wire cutters, sometimes pushed into it by Belarus forces, and hurled debris, stones and stun grenades at Polish police.
 Migrants in Belarus focused on Poland because it offers the only route to Germany, their preferred destination. |
But the many security personnel on the other side stopped them with tear gas and water cannons, backed by fervent resolve. "This border is sacred," Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said. "The border of the Polish state is not just a line on the map. Generations of Poles shed their blood for this border." Warsaw also passed a lawenabling it not only to ignore the asylum claims of illegal migrants but even to push them forcibly out of the country.
 Would be illegal migrants assemble to cross from Belarus into Poland. |
Lukashenko exploited the illegals as pawns in a tactical game versus the EU. He also used them to make money, as Belarus' state-owned tourism agency charged between $1,800 and $12,000 per migrant and local merchants over-charged ($1,000 for a hotel room, anyone?); perhaps Lukashenko also hoped for a bribe, such as EU members have paidto Turkey and Libya. Meanwhile, the migrants languished, cold and hungry, adults and children, in the fetid forest, about a dozen of them dying.
 A would-be illegal migrant in Belarus cuts wires to enter Poland. |
The lasting importance of his bellicose move will be further to sour Europeans on immigration by Muslims. Now weaponized by Belarus, more Europeans see Syrians, Iraqis and Afghans as hostile elements intent on doing harm. However inaccurate this generalization, it fits an existing set of biases. Shouts on the streets of Poland have called for border guards to shoot the would-be intruders.
 Polish forces deploy water cannons against would-be illegal migrants at the Bruzgi-Kuznica border checkpoint with Belarus. |
Unequivocal EU support for Poland shows how much this shift has already taken place. Despite severe ongoing strains with Warsaw, Brussels came quickly and wholeheartedly to Poland's side in its dispute with Belarus. The border problem shunted EU-Polish tensions—and $41 billion in suspended aid—to the margins.
Fortunately, Polish and EU resolve led to Lukashenko backing down. The illegals have abandoned the immediate border area and are either being crowded into a giant Belarus warehouse (a fitting symbolism) or flown to Iraq. Ironically, Lukashenko's gambit to create a migrant crisis in the EU backfired; Belarus, which until this drama had almost no Muslim migrants, now hosts a substantial body of those refusing to return home. "I would rather die here in the cold than go back to Iraq," declared a 32-year-old Iraqi Kurd.
 Would-be illegal migrants retreated to an unused warehouse in the Grodno region of Belarus. |
I predict that the Belarus provocation will significantly affect European attitudes toward migrants, especially illegal ones, for the worse. Willkommenskultur is now defunct, with little possibility of resurrection. Guilt over racism, imperialism and fascism have somewhat faded in the face of a resolve not to be shown up as idiots by a tin-hat dictator.
Thus might a tragic incident lead to a new resolve and to positive long-term results. Europeans are more aware of the need to protect their borders and democratically to decide their population makeup. That it takes a European dictator to drive this point home yet again confirms history's caprice.
Daniel Pipes (DanielPipes.org, @DanielPipes) is president of the Middle East Forum.
Mar. 7, 2023 update: For the aftermath of the Belarus gambit, sympathetic to the illegal migrants, see Sophie Pinkham, "Inside the European forest that geopolitics has turned into a graveyard. Belarus ferried thousands of migrants to the border of the European Union as a political stunt. Now they're wandering in a cold, wet purgatory."
Dec. 26, 2023 update: An investigation by Oleksandra Amru finds that "the flow of Arab refugees to the border with Finland is organized by the FSB — it also diverted migrants from Belarus to Poland."
Jan. 19, 2024 update: Todd Bensman raises the prospect that the leftist government that came to power in December 2023 will go soft on immigration, inviting the Belarus government again to step up the illegal migrant game. He worries that if Prime Minister Donald Tusk "changes migration policy slightly out of 'humanitarian' intention, he may blunder into a mass migration catastrophe that will make Vladimir Putin's year."
Feb. 10, 2024 update: More details on Putin's using Middle Eastern and other illegal migrants to put pressure on Finland at "On a Frozen Border, Finland Puzzles Over a 'Russian Game'."
Feb. 29, 2024 update: And more: "Revealed: how Putin plans to flood West with migrants. Russia using militias in Africa to 'weaponise' flows of people in attempts to influence elections."
May 17, 2024 update: Estonia's Prime Minister Kaja Kallas pointed out that "What our adversaries know is migration is our vulnerability. The aim is to make life really impossible in Ukraine so that there would be migration pressure to Europe, and this is what they are doing." She said Russia had created migration pressure through its activities in Syria and Africa. "I think we have to understand that Russia is weaponising migration. Our adversaries are weaponising migration."
July 12, 2024 update: Finland's parliament passed by 167-31 a one-year law that permits the authorities to push back illegal migrants coming from Russia. The New York Times explains:
The legislation gives the authorities the power to halt the acceptance of asylum applications at the border for up to a month at a time — and to remove migrants who had already made it into the country in hopes of seeking asylum. Forcing people back over a border, a practice known as "pushbacks," is illegal under European and international law.
"I hope that this law will never have to be applied, but we are prepared," Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said after the vote. "This sends a strong message to Russia and to our allies. Finland looks after its national security and the security of the E.U. border." ...
About 65 percent of Finns said they were in favor of the law, with just 19 percent saying they were opposed, according to a survey commissioned by a prominent Finnish newspaper in late June. ...
The border closures Finland implemented have been effective: Since December, only some 35 migrants have crossed illegally into the country from Russia.
