SHARON'S SPEECH

Submitted by Michael Green (United States), Dec 24, 2003 at 16:37

DEAR DANIEL PIPES,

ALTHOUGH I GENERALY AGREE WITH YOUR INSIGHTS ON THE MIDDLE EAST, I HAVE TO DISSENT FROM YOUR RECENT INTERPRETATION OF SHARON'S SPEECH.

IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE MAKING PEACEFUL WITH AN "INFIDEL" ENEMY IS CONSIDERED AN ACT FORBIDDEN BY ISLAM, I DO NOT SEE ANY SOLUTION OTHER THAN A UNILATERAL SETTLEMENT IMPOSED BY ISRAEL.

URI AVNERI, OF ALL PEOPLE (!) , JUST WROTE WHAT I BELIEVE IS A VALID INTERPRETATION OF SHARON'S SPEECH.

ALTHOUGH MY VIEWS ARE DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSED TO AVNERI'S (HE IS PRO-ARAB, I AM PRO-ISRAEL), AND HE CONDEMNS SHARON'S STRATEGY, WHILE I APPLAUD IT, I WOULD LIKE PROVIDE THIS INTERESTING ANALYSIS BELOW:

-----------------------------------

UNILATERAL WITHDRAWAL:
TO THE LINES IMPOSED BY SHARON

by Uri Avnery

He read out the written text of his speech, word for word, without raising his eyes from the page.

It was vital for him to stick to the exact wording, since it was an encoded text. It is impossible to decipher it without breaking the code. And it is impossible to break the code without knowing Ariel Sharon very well indeed.

So it is no surprise that the flood of interpretations in Israel and abroad was ridiculous. The commentators just did not understand what they had heard. That's why they wrote things like "he did not say anything new", "he has no plan", "he is marking time", "he is old and tired." And the usual Washington reaction: "A positive step, but..."

Nonsense. In his speech, Sharon outlined a whole, detailed and extremely dangerous plan. Those who did not understand—Israelis, Palestinians and foreign diplomats—will be unable to react effectively.

Here is the deciphered text of Sharon's "Herzliyah" speech:

The name of the game is Hitnatkut ("cutting ourselves off"). Meaning: most of the West Bank area will become de facto a part of Israel, and the rest we shall leave to the Palestinians, who will be enclosed in isolated enclaves. From these enclaves, the settlements will be removed.

Stage One: In order to do this, we need time—about half a year. We are talking about a large-scale and complicated military operation. The army will have to occupy and fortify new lines, while "relocating" dozens of isolated settlements. This will require detailed planning, which has not yet even started. The necessary forces and instruments will have to be prepared. Half a year is the minimum.

During this period we shall not be idle. On the contrary, we shall finish the "separation fence" and it will play a major part in the new deployment. We shall develop the "settlement blocs" to which we shall transfer the settlers who will be relocated.

The execution of the plan in half a year is perfectly timed. At exactly that time the American election campaign will reach its climax. No American politician will dare to utter a word against Israel. The Democrats need the Jewish votes and money. The Republicans also need the votes and the money of the 60 million Christian fundamentalists, who support the most extreme elements in Israel.

While we quietly prepare the big operation, we shall continue to flatter President Bush and praise his idiotic Road Map, without, of course, fulfilling any of our obligations under the Map. But we shall blame the Palestinians for violating it.

At the same time we shall pretend to seek negotiations with the Palestinians. We shall try to meet with Abu-Ala as many times as possible and play the game to the end. When we are ready to go, we shall terminate the contacts, declare the Road Map dead and state sorrowfully that all our efforts to start peace negotiations have failed because of Arafat.

Stage Two: By then, the "separation wall" will be ready. The Palestinian territories (Areas A and B under Oslo) will be surrounded on all sides. In practice there will be about a dozen isolated pockets. In order to fulfil our promise about Palestinian "contiguity" we shall connect the enclaves by special roads, bridges and tunnels, which we shall be able to cut at a moment's notice.

The army will withdraw gradually to the separation barrier and redeploy in the territories that will be annexed to Israel, including, inter alia, the settlement blocs of Karney Shomron, Elkana, Ariel and Kedumim; the Modin Road and the territory south of it up to the Green Line, all the Greater Jerusalem area already annexed in 1967; the new neighborhoods around Jerusalem up to Maaleh Adumim and perhaps further; the Jewish settlement in Hebron and Kiryat Arba and the settlements in the Hebron area; all the Dead Sea shore; all the Jordan valley, including about 15 km of the banks. Altogether, more than half the West Bank.

These areas will not be annexed officially, but we shall annex them as rapidly as possible in practice. We shall fill them with settlements (also using the settlers from the "relocated" settlements), industrial parks, roads, public institutions and army installations, so that they will become indistinguishable from parts of Israel proper.

At the same time, we shall evacuate the settlements beyond the barrier, including those in the Gaza Strip (with or without the Katif bloc.)

In line with the American proposal, we shall call the Palestinian enclaves a "Palestinian State with Temporary Borders." That will give the Palestinians the illusion that they will be able to negotiate the "permanent" borders. But, of course, the "separation fence" will be the final border.

The terror will not stop completely, but the Palestinian enclaves will be at our mercy and we shall be able to cut each of them off at any time, prevent movement from one to another and make life in them intolerable. It will not be worthwhile for them to conduct violent acts.

Officially, the Palestinians will have free access to the border crossings to Egypt and Jordan, but in practice we shall maintain an effective military presence, enabling us to stop movement there at any time.

At first the world will scream, but faced with a fait accompli they will quiet down. Even if Bush remains in the White House, he will be paralysed until after the elections at the end of 2004. If a Democrat is elected president, he will need some months to settle down. By then everything will be finished, and we shall be able to generously agree to some minor adjustments.

This is the Plan. Can it be realized?

It is quite possible that Sharon will convince Israeli public opinion. The great majority of the public is united around two points: (a) the longing for peace and security, and (b) the distrust of Arabs and the unwillingness to deal with them. (Some weeks ago, a satirical supplement published a slogan: "YES to peace, NO to Palestinians")

Sharon's plan promises both. It promises peace and security, and it is entirely "unilateral." No negotiations with Palestinians are required, it does not depend on the will of the Arabs, who can be ignored entirely.

In this respect, Sharon's plan has a great advantage over the Geneva Initiative, which is entirely based on the assumption that "there is a partner," and that we must negotiate with the PalestinianS... Ehud Barak and most of the other leaders of the "Zionist Left" have convinced the Israeli public that there is no partner, that the Arabs are cheating, that Arafat has broken every single agreement he has signed, etc. The Sharon plan conforms to all these... while the Geneva Initiative clashes with them.

---

Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments".