Dubai's drop -NOT----> JUST A REALIGNMENT WITH THE OTHER ANTISEMITES/ANTI-ISRAEL STATES...

Submitted by JKF (Canada), Feb 27, 2009 at 22:19

The entire ME is changing because:

1. Iran's leadership is driving the agenda, as it aproaches the nuclear threashold- with a thoroughly demostrated ballistic capability; a massive navy in the Gulf; massive purchase and deployment of offensive weapons on Iran's shorelines......, No choice but more and more Arab states will go an sit on the fence, if not switch over to the Iranian camp, because- BIG TIME FEAR- their survival instict has qicked-in as usual;

2. Failure of reapeted US administrations to deal with Iran's leadership over its support for proxy terrorist militias in Lebanon, in Iraq, and in Gaza; and having seen the barbaric attacks on Israel, and having seen that even Israel did not immediatly respond to Hamas attacks for years -- the result is big intimidation;

3. And now they actually see that the US administration, itself appears very afraid of Iran or spent to deal with Iran's ambitions, ... the Arabs can only draw one conclusion and it is that " at the end of the day that neither the US nor the Europeans are willing to confront proxi terrorism not witstanding all the big talk; and

4. The final blow, to Arab perceptions, will come if the US throws Israel on the tracks and allows the creation of a Pal state that is not economically self-sustainable. A state that is not economically self-sustainable will be easy pickings for the proxi-terrorists. The latest comments of the ex-NYS Senator, may be the actual begining of bad days for Israel and the Jewish people. The Kerry trip to Hamas controlled Gaza, and the contacts with Syria are even getting the PA to rapidly seek terms and accomodations with Hamas. I view all of these indications with clear dismay, because it is becoming transparent, that a two state solution will be implemented irrespective if it will lead to economically sustainable/democratic state or not. Potentially a second Somalia type of state may result; such a state would rapidly fail. If it fails, all the creators of this situation, will rapidly pack up themselves and run like hell out of it, just like it ocurred in Somalia; and then Israel will be left holding the up its borders against terrorist threats/attacks of their many failed state neighbours, jusf like the neighbours of Somalia were left to do. Essentially, creating another failed state will not bring about any peace for any one, on the contrary neighbouring states will be destabilized, especially Jordan.

I hope that everyone takes a very reasoned and detailed view. They need to have a clear understanding that if they saddle Israel with a new terrorist state alongside it, it will not just have a very negative impact on Israel, but it will have an even worse impact on Jordan. Egypt and the rest of the moderate Arab states will also not be inmune from the potential negative effects of another failed state. Essentially the Iranian leadership's approach to expansion, by proxy terrorist militia support, would have paid off once more. The choices for the moderate Arab states, those that can afford it, will be an arms race, in which at its center will be nuclear programs and ballistic missile programs to balance out Iran. Nuclear and ballisic missile proliferation is a most extremely dangerous outcome; far worse outcome than the present status quo.

The other massive strategic error, on the part of the Western world, is the fact that multiple past demonstration made by Iranian proxis like Hizbulah and Hamas were not confronted by the West. It demonstrates to the moderate Arabs, that they better start lining up with the Iranian leadership or else they could be confronting an Iranian backed terrorist proxi-militia inside of their own territories.

The current expressed approach, to resolve the sit in the ME ,by the rapid creation of a Pal state, needs to be taken with a big grain of salt; if the Pal economy is not first made robust and sustainable, the solution will be just another massive strategic failure for the US and the West. Quick ill conceived, bordering on inane solutions, time and time again have proven to end up in massive strategic failures right from Korea, to Viet Nam, to Iran, to Somalia, Lebanon, Kosovo, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan. and the list is still under development. The results in Northern Ireland will not be repeated, because, they have absolutely no comunality with the situation in the ME (isr/Pal). The only thing common is the US envoy, who appears to have already prejudged the solution, jumped the gun, and allready going into a potential solution that can only fail on the long run.

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