Islamic Emirate of Arabia?

Submitted by John Power (Ireland), Aug 5, 2004 at 19:47

In 1978, we saw all the signs in The Kingdom of Iran (or Iranshahr) that the monarchy wouldn't last any longer than 5 years ... It didn't last any longer than 1 year.

At the time, Iran was a major US ally and then - after the revolution - an Islamic/Republic hybrid government took power. To many Westernized Iranians, this became a repressive government lead officially by the 80-year-old Ayatollah Khomeini (but with the real power coming from much younger men, who still control Iran - most notably, Ali Khameini and Hashemi Rafsanjani).

Ayatollah Khomeini's original ideas were based on a combination of Islam and a French style Republic. However, revolutionary confusion and war with Saddam Hussein's Iraq both fanned paranoia and extremism.

However, Iran's Islamic Republic is not the place many westerners think .. Firstly, it was not an original idea: the Islamic Republics of Comoros, Mauritania and Pakistan served as blueprints. While the laws in the IRI were a lot stricter than those of the Shah, they were a lot more tolerant than those of the pro-Western Arabian Peninsula states. Secondly, what made the IRI get a lot more bad press than the other countries was that it became a US enemy. The rest is history.

However, jump to 2004: Saudi Arabia's monarchy is crumbling today. And it is much more scary than the Iranian Revolution. The Iranian revolution saw hostage taking, civil war, etc. but did we see any of the blatant killings of westerners that we see in Post-Saddam Iraq and now Saudi Arabia. No. But, then again, Saudi has ALWAYS been a far more repressive place than Iran. This is because of many reasons, chiefly:

1. That the Iranians are generally better educated and even the most extremist of Mullahs cannot pragmatically introduce things they might be able to in Saudi.
2. The Iranians are more independent/nationalist than strictly religious, whereas the Saudis are fiercely protective of Mecca and Medina and are not tolerant of other religions.
3. The Iranians want to be INDEPENDENT of the West whereas Al Qaeda want to DESTROY all the world that is not Wahabbi Islam.

With the grim prospects of an Arabian revolution in the near future, what is the most likely outcome? Here are some questions and sample answers:

1. What will Osama bin Laden's role be? Probably will not be officially featured at all in government (otherwise, the US will go to war to get him out). He will (if he is still alive) probably be given secret refuge there and a hidden role in govt.

2. What sort of laws/policy/etc. will the country take? Very strict Wahabbi Islam, like the Taliban in Afghanistan but probably much more extreme. Clerical rule. Promoter of Terrorism against enemies (US, Israel, Europe, Russia, Iran, China, and others). Aggressive towards its secular neighbours, and interfering in Iraq. Westerners will be probably (at best) be told to leave, or alternatively will be killed (with the govt. denying it). The end result will of course be war with the US.

3. What will the country's name be? Islamic Emirate of Arabia.

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