Erdogan is actually a rising star in the Middle East

Submitted by Michael S (United States), Jun 12, 2015 at 14:41

Hi, RC. It's good to see a commenter from Turkey on this matter. You said,

AKP hit a speed bump but not a wall.

From what I've read about Erdogan; if he does eventually hit a wall, he will back up and come back at it faster and harder. Consider Erdogan's palace, which was tailor-made to his specifications:

It covers an area of 300,000 m² (3,200,000 sq ft). Inspired by Seljuk architecture, the new Presidential Palace has at least 1,150 rooms, additional guesthouses, a botanical garden, a situation room with satellite and military communications systems, bunkers able to withstand biological, nuclear and chemical weapons attack, a park and a congress center.

-- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidential_Palace,_Ankara

Does a man who lives in a place like that, impress people as someone who plans on stepping down anytime before he dies?

In related matters, I see that Erdogan's influence in the region has been greatly enhanced by the death of King Abdullah in Saudi Arabia and the succession to the throne by his half-brother Salman, a devout Wahabbist. Salman has joined forces with Erdogan and with the Emir of Qatar in Yemen and in Syria. This new alliance is prying Egypt from the Saudi sphere; because Egypt's leader President al Sisi is unlikely to cave in to the Turkish leader and release former President (and persecutor of Egypt's Christians) Mohamed Morsi. It would be political suicide for al Sisi to do so.

The upshot of all this is that Turkey, which has been described as isolated by many commentators lately, will now be calling the shots in an alliance including Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Sudan, Fajr Libya and Somalia. I say Turkey (and hence Erdogan) will become the head of this group, because the Saudi king is becoming desperate for a protector in the region from the Iranians. In this, the Pakistanis have deserted him; and the Americans can no longer be trusted.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are still pumping billions of dollars of aid into Egypt; but this aid is intended not to help Sisi against Ergogan, but to bribe him into giving in to him. When Sisi give Salman his final "لا" ("no"), I expect the aid to him to dry up. Whether Sisi says yes or no, I expect widespread turmoil in Egypt (and Libya). Who can stop it? The Russians? I doubt it.

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