A turning point...

Submitted by Justin H. (United States), Jan 13, 2006 at 10:56

First off, I would like to thank Dr. Pipes for allowing us to debate these critical issues in his forums, whether we agree with him or not.

Secondly, there is a greater need for fresh opinions than ever. Finally, this message is dedicated to the Iranian people (including "dissident" clerics such as Grand Ayatollah Hussein Ali Montazeri) and is both an analysis of the Ahmadi-Nejad presidency and a criticism of his wanton comments about Israel and the Holocaust:

While Iran's nuclear program gives its leaders the illusion of power and control, the reality is this: the Iranian leadership is faltering. In fact, several factors considered, I would not be surprised to see another revolution in Iran within the next twenty or so years. Ahmadi-Nejad, in fact, plays a key role in this. Having promised to help what one Middle East Forum director described as "the downtrodden and the poor", he has failed to do so. All Ahmadi-Nejad has granted them is more social and political repression. In short, he is trying to turn Iran into Saudi Arabia, although few are going to stand for it. In the end, the blame will probably fall on Khamanei. He is, after all, the hard-line head of state, and had he worked with Mohammad Khatami to enact reform, he could have avoided this impending mess to begin with (and these days, far more Iranians who have the nerve will chant "death to Khamanei" instead of "death to America" or "death to Israel").

Indeed, Ahmadi-Nejad's comments about Israel are bound to have a far more devastating short-term impact upon his country. The real losers, of course, are the wonderful men, women, and children of the Islamic Republic. Again, as I say in a previous response, I am undoubtedly a liberal. I do NOT agree with President Bush's domestic and foreign policies (especially in the Middle East), nor am I fond of the evangelical Right's attempts to impinge upon Israel (even moreso after Pat Robertson called Ariel Sharon's stroke "a punishment from God"; my thoughts and prayers go out to Mr. Sharon, by the way). Yet, as a Jew of Slavic origin (although secular), I am pro-Israeli. To deny the mass murder of the Jewish people and/or call for the destruction of another country should be considered a crime against humanity.

Furthermore, these comments (coupled with the recent standstill in nuclear negotiations with the EU-3) will only hurt Iran's economy and its international standing, not to mention its quest for a nuclear capability. Even many of the hard-line clerics are concerned. In the long run, they are the ones with the most to lose. Remember, Ahmadi-Nejad's comments were condemned even by Palestinian leaders. Iran has done NOTHING for the Palestinians with the expection of paying lip-service to their quest for self-determination.

When Ahmadi-Nejad banned Western music from the Islamic Republic, he essentially summed up both his presidency and Iran's current political and social state in a capsule. It is a country with a rapidly declining international standing that, before long, will be unable to control its own citizens. As both New York Times reporter Thomas L. Friedman and Foreign policy expert Kenneth M. Pollack have suggested, the days of the Iranian regime are "probably numbered". When a new regime takes power, however, America will have to do something that it did not do during the days of Mossadegh or dictator Mohammad Reza Shah.

As the world's sole superpower, we must pursue a relationship with Iran based on trust, equality, and mutual respect (this means no 1953-style coups). Until then, America and Europe must work towards finding a non-military means of keeping "the bomb" out of Ahmadi-Nejad's hands. The future of Israel (I, along with many other moderates and liberals, do NOT consider Iran a threat to America itself, although it CAN and HAS threatened American INTERESTS in the region) depends on it.

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