Turkey in Northern Iraq

Submitted by James Vesce (United States), Jul 25, 2006 at 17:53

Daniel,

Less a comment than a series of questions and speculations:

Does the Islamist influence in Turkey favor the Sunnis or the Shiites? It seems to me as though the Sunnis are projecting their influence in such a way that they create an escalating conflict between the US and the Shiites, and I can't figure out where Turkish Islamists fit into that equation. Understanding the potential consequences of a Turkish invasion into northern Iraq, and how it would influence American and Israeli interests, would seem to require an understanding of the sectarian alliances.

How has the secularist versus Islamist balance sorted itself out in Turkey during the last few years? Is the military leadership still secularist?

Am I right in thinking that if the military leadership is solidly secularist, and if the Islamist influence among the Turkish political leadership is still weak enough, a strong Turkish military action in northern Iraq could work well for us? A Turkish territorial wedge could be driven between Iran's Shiite radicals and the Iraqi land they've envied for so long in their quest for getting an upper hand in their competition with the Sunnis. If a secularist Turkish military claims the Kurdish lands, and maybe a little more, the Iranian quest to grab Iraqi land would be stymied, and a stronger secularist influence could prevail in the Turkish government. It would all seem to depend on the extent to which a progressive secular influence prevails in Turkey. (So that's why you've looked at that issue for so long !)

If the remaining secularist leaders in Turkey have achieved the capacity for adapting and changing with the times, and no longer hold onto a rigid perpetuation of 80-year-old Attaturkist prescriptions for administration, and if Turkish military leaders are still solidly secularist, would I be correct in thinking that a Turkish military invasion of northern Iraq would be good for the US and Israel, good for Turkey, and good for the future of civilization? A Secular Islam in Turkey would be delightful, but I can't recall seeing evidence of it yet. At any rate, I'd be inclined to stand aside, as it were, and let the Turks "secure their border".

On the other hand, if the Turkish Islamists are solidly in control, and if their intent is to use three simultaneous conflicts elsewhere in the region to distract American attention from a competition between Turkish Islamists and Iranian Islamists for land in northern Iraq, this could signal a sectarian dog-eat-dog meltdown situation in which all the Islamists in the region fall upon each other and become less of a threat to us. I think that's what history teaches us about planting the point of our spear in the Islamist Middle East when Islamists attack the Christians and the Jews outside that region, and then wiggling it around a bit until the Islamists attack the point of the spear. Then they crowd together in the process of attacking the spearpoint and start attacking each other. Then they get so intent in their intrinsic and involuntary sectarian rage that they keep it up, even after the point of the spear is withdrawn. Wouldn't we be better off just standing back from the entire region, falling back to a policy of narrowly focused and vigourous support for Israel, and preserving our resources, while watching the Islamists deplete each other's resources and infrastructures, and exhausting each other's capacity for violent jihad?

In my private thoughts, I have reasoned that kindling such an Islamist self-immolation was the main justification for projecting our military presence into Afghanistan and Iraq in the first place, and hoped that once we got the fire going it'd be prudent to step back a little, and just throw a little gas on the fire every so often, just to keep it aflame until it was all burned out.

Or, are the Sunnis still sitting back comfortably and projecting their force through al Qaeda, playing us against the Shiites while they preserve their resources? If that's the case, why haven't the Shiites figured it out yet?

Thanks,

Jay

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