Egypt is One in a Chain of Events - What Happens There Will Become the Model

Submitted by M. Tovey (United States), Feb 16, 2011 at 14:23

It is not hard to have a misguided expectation that somehow Egypt might possibly emerge in a better circumstance from the fiasco being perpetrated in the Middle East. But being hopeful in this case is not going to provide what is really necessary to keep Egypt's bubble burst from infecting all the Middle East with a different form of expectations; that of an Iranian influenced change of politics.

It is not hard to see that the status quo of Egypt and Jordan maintaining quasi-peaceful relations with Israel is an obstacle that needs to be addressed by the powers that be who would depose the Israeli presence in the Middle East to an apparition of history. Further, the process of destabilizing the Middle East is in evidence that the 'Palestinian' problem is no longer viable as a source of leverage in trying to get Israeli cornered into some new peace deal if the rest of the world can't seem to put some weight in getting Israel to compromise even more of its integrity.

The destabilizing of Egypt is not a chance for a peaceful transition of government from the autocratic Mubarak regime. This is merely a different form of regime change; and that is always suspect. The United States deposed a regime thought to be anti-American in spite of all the aide and former attempts to be tolerant, and what did it get? America paid a dear price and will never recover the investment.

Another part of the issue at hand in trying to assess the next step in whether or not Egypt might be friendly to Israel after the transition works itself out, is the American Administration's seeming penchant for not having a trusted relationship to count on. One might have thought that since Egypt was a political stop years ago that a better understanding of how things might turn out would be there. That remains to be seen; but it is not looking good for American interests when there is an apparent inability to utilize a definitively military means (Identify- Friend-Foe) of dealing intelligently (not necessarily the most diplomatic means) with an avowed enemy of the United States of America and Israel-the Brotherhood.

The Egyptian military, in the mean time, is the government of Egypt. To whom they will answer remains to be seen. If they cannot get a transitional democratic government in place soon, then there will be the Adversary to pay to keep the peace: and guess who gets to pick up that tab.

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