Palestinian Counttries: De Jure & De Facto

Submitted by Robert (United States), Apr 17, 2016 at 08:02

Dear Daniel Pipes,

Perhaps the hardest part of the world to predict, in its political convolutions, is the Middle East.

You're last comment here was in 2008, eight years ago. So it's at least informative to observe how unpalatable has become the possibility for Egypt to absorb - the "Muslim Brotherhood" connected Gaza under Hamas - as a Province of Egypt.

But your "de facto" observation above suggests to me the broader question of what is Palestine today and the possibility of it becoming a Sovereign State in the immediate foreseeable future.

Those in the West who are pushing for a de jour single Palestinian State are obviously impervious to the reality of the de facto existence of two (2) distinct entities on the ground, Gaza and the West Bank. It seems to me that the possibility of the two coalescing any time soon is quite remote, to put it bluntly, and as an understatement.

Furthermore, just as Gaza is a Poison Pill to swallow for Egypt, the same holds for the West Bank in relation to Jordan.

I think what the situation lacks at the moment is a Napoleon Bonaparte in Israel. Perhaps Denny Danon is the man of the hour. If I were in his shoes I would push for approaching Hamas as the de facto Schizophrenic reality of their being two (2) Palestinian entities and regimes and thereby confronting the UN with their absurd Security Council rulings.

Fatah, in Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) is only represented by a weak, aging, with no successor, Abbas; while has a very strong military arm (traditionally the mark of statehood - think of Prussia in the 19th century in Europe), it also is currently going through a leadership struggle.

How can the world, in this context, of another factionalized, failed-state, condition, impose upon Israel and the world, the so-called Two-State Solution?

One approach would be for Denny Danon to demand the Three State Solution - merely on the de facto basis that there is no single entity such as a single Palestine. Danon, in my view, should demand that the UN put pressure on Gaza-Hamas before it listens to the terms of weak dictator Abbas. It is incredible how Abbas maintains his respectability and high diplomatic status. Most dictators maintain their status through a strong military and police force while suppressing by their subject population. By Abbas is a creature mostly upheld by the international community. He is the product of the "Linkage" Theory, about which you've written extensively and informatively; in my view, it's essential to both the Christian West, and the Muslim Middle East especially, to be preoccupied with the Holy Land, and Quds, Solomon's Stables, or where Muhammad parked his horse Buraq [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buraq] before he ascended to heaven.

My hope is that President Obama will not be induced to use the UN Security Council to step into this quagmire which is, in his own private terms another "Shit Show."
I hope he uses his great intelligence not to impose romantic Two-State Solution
independently of the Realpolitik conditions on the ground.

Here's the latest on the international situation (Middle East neighborhood) of Gaza
"Israel, Turkey, Russia and Egypt" by Shoshana Bryen
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7857/israel-turkey-russia-egypt

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