Brilliant, but 50 year prediction?

Submitted by Malcolm (Israel), Sep 29, 2020 at 03:38

This is Mr. Pipes at his brilliant best. Every sentence is instructive, while no words are wasted.

Just one thing: I regard his remark about the next 50 years as a rhetorical comment, not as a serious prediction. Events change so suddenly in the Middle East that the greatest changes were unpredictable even five years ahead. Who in 1969 could have predicted that Nasser would be succeeded by someone who would turn away so quickly from Nasser's path? Who in 1975 could have predicted Israel-Egypt peace or the Khomeinist revolution within five years? And so on. More generally, demographic projections beyond 10-15 years are of little worth. Who predicted that the birthrate of Jews in Israel would catch up with the birthrate of Arabs so quickly, instead of - as was almost common wisdom - predicting an Arab majority within so-and-so-many decades? The COVID-19 epidemic will overturn many predictions made only last year. And its impact is mild compared with the impact of plagues known in history and maybe awaiting us in the near future.

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