The Kurdistan Petrostate Quasi-Exit Strategy

Submitted by Michael Turner (United States), Apr 11, 2006 at 14:22

Little-noted fact: Colin Powell, in a radio interview, said that the U.S. went into Iraq hoping for a stable middle east oil supplier. He then backpedaled only slightly, saying it was really about liberating Iraq. Still, it's out there now. Can't take those words back. No wonder he got fired.

Disturbing fact: the Kurds claim that Kirkuk is part of Kurdistan. During elections, U.S. troops tour the city, asking people to take down the Kurdish flag. Kurds openly debate whether Arabs located in their territory, many if not most resettled by Saddam as part of his Arabization programs, should be allowed to stay if they've been around long enough, or simply ethnically cleansed.

Moral-hazard fact: The oil fields around Kirkuk contain about $1 trillion of oil at today's prices -- oil that's relatively cheap to extract. There is one pipeline, the Kirkuk-Ceyhan, going into Turkey, a nominal U.S. ally. Now imagine some global oil-supply crisis. Let's just say, some combination of Saudi Arabia becoming Al Qaeda Arabia, gobbling up other Gulf principalities in the process; Nigeria entering civil war; similarly for Venezuela; and China, some of Europe, maybe even Japan cutting side deals with Iran and Al Qaeda Arabia to keep their oil supplies flowing. In that event, the combination of U.S. domestic reserves, Canadian tar sands AND Kirkuk oil could keep the U.S. supplied for a decade, at least. But without that Kirkuk contribution, an oil shock could hit the U.S. economy somewhere around the same time that (1) the global residential property bubble bursts, (2) the stock markets go back to rationality (Dow 8,000 anyone?), and everybody tightens their belts for an economy worse than we had in 70s, just as (3) the Baby Boomers are rounding the last lap toward retirement.

Undeniable fact: the majority of apparently-permanent U.S. bases constructed or being built are in the north of Iraq -- i.e., Kurdistan.

Feverishly-denied-by-those-in-denial fact: While Turkey is once again experiencing some Kurdish unrest, and looks askance at Kurdistan's sovereignty claims, if the cost of Virtual Sovereignty for Kurdistan is killing insurgent Turkish Kurds, with Turkish troops mopping up, and Americans supplying air support, that wouldn't be too different from when they were killing each other during the sanctions period, nor too different from when they mopped up Ahmed Chalabi's little Bay of Pigs Redux invasion force back in the late 90s, working hand in glove with Saddam's troops. They'll do what it takes to keep -- and steadily increase -- their autonomy, whether recognized as a state or not. How about the Turkish voter? Forget the Turkish voter. One day's proceeds from the output of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline should be enough to buy off all of the noisiest demagogues in Turkey's parliament, and all the noisiest pundits on Turkish TV. Turkey is a democracy, but a pretty corrupt one, after all.

What does it all add up to? The Kurdistan Petrostate Quasi-Exit Strategy.

George Bush Sr was once heard to say of invading Iraq, "I don't see the exit strategy." He's right: there isn't one. But in some sense, we don't need an exit. We just need a safe corner, with oil. If worse comes to worst, we pull all troops into Kurdistan, declare some city (to be diplomatic, *not* Kirkuk) the seat of a provisional but legitimate government of all of Iraq, and treat Kurdistan much as Taiwan has been treated for decades -- not a state, but as if it were a state-in-waiting. The Pesh Merga are good fighters, so just give them a border to guard instead of this borderless war they are fighting now as "the Army of Iraq" (which is basically the Pesh Merga as far as combat effectiveness is concerned). We can weap alligator tears when the de-Arabization ethnic cleansing comes, if that's what it takes to make the strategy work. U.S. diplomats will rend their garments and gnash our teeth. Then head back into the back channels where the real deals are done.

Kurds: Welcome to Virtual Sovereignty, Service Patch 2.

Kurds: Welcome to an amount of oil that can put all of your brighter kids through Harvard.

Americans: We didn't "cut and run" -- we're still there! But with a much lower monthly body count, mostly accidental deaths actually.

Americans: we get cheaper oil than we'd otherwise have!

Other Iraqis? Living in Civil War Hell, with annexation by Iran and/or Syria coming sooner or later. Better than life under Saddam? The dice are still rolling on that question. Better for the Kurds, anyway.

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