The Inevitability of a Nuclear Showdown is Made Sure by the Unwillingness of a World that Cannot Make Peace

Submitted by M. Tovey (United States), Oct 7, 2009 at 17:48

We keep hearing, and reading continually, that a nuclear Iran is looming upon the horizon, and that, if and when (more when than if)they finally realize their ambitions to be nuclear power, the entire xeriscape of the Middle East will be vastly more incomprehensible than ever. What may be a paradox of history, that of a former ancient world power recapturing some of its prowess in a modern context, now having a capability to alter the political landscape they could only dream of in the past, brought forth from the musings dreamed of during the Parisien exile of the patriarch of the Iranian Islamic Revolution, the Ayatollah Khomeini. His successors, in particular the Iranian president M. Ahmadinejad, et al, can barely contain his/their fervor of the possibilities that will shortly be at his/their disposal: a nuclear time bomb.

Yet, as potentially dangerous as a nuclear Iran may be, it is actually ancillary to a more pressing situation that has been brought about by a more subliminal, even sinister circumstance, which can amplify that potential to exacerbate the tensions already set to explode upon the world scene from the Middle East. With the capitulation of the American Administration concerning the missile shield planned to cover the areas promised to be targeted by the enemies of western Europe, the exposure is guaranteed to be exploited by the greatest of the beneficiaries of that inaction, the successor entity of the former Soviet Union, Russia.

Now some may ask, how does the Iranian Islamic Revolution have anything to gain by taking advantage of a power play between the United States and Russia? A clue to that may be gained from looking at how the Islamic Revolution uses a former communist ploy of pitting proxies against those they have targeted in their play for power. We see Hamas in Gaza; Hizbollah in Lebanon. Even as they have not yet been able to force Israel beyond her current abilities to defend themselves, the time is coming shortly when Israel's defenses will be placed under greater pressure from the International community, such as in the attempt the get the United Nations to empower the Security Council to act on the heavy-handed and nearsighted recommendations of the Goldstone Report against Israel.

At the initiation if hostilities at one of the flashpoints, the antagonists of Israel will again engage Israel in a futile battle exchange from which extrication will be impossible without outside help. The 2006 Lebanese war could be the model, though it could just as easily be Syria finally breaking loose to gain back the Golan. Hamas in the south may potentially start a second front to divide the resources of Israel; the ultimate goal being to force what they think may be the final effort to diminish, and then eliminate Israel.

Such is the portent of a nuclear Iran. Is this speculation? Maybe, then again, maybe not; who can tell?

One thing is for sure, whatever is going to happen, is going to happen quickly. Which power, if any (we see the curiosity of Russia and China distancing themselves from any punitive action-the U.N. has no such resolve), is going to be able to deal with Iran if they do get the nuclear capability, or indeed, who is going to want to? It is going to take more courage than anyone is willing to show now to find an effective means to control the Middle East, let alone find the elusive peace no one is willing to share with Israel.

Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments".