Trouble ahead - middle classes at fault

Submitted by Nazim Cairo (Denmark), Jul 15, 2013 at 17:29

The problem of many Muslim countries that there are too few urbanized (if not too say westernized and less religious) middle class people to initiate liberal change and build inclusive civil state , but too many of them to create trouble and brings things to chaotic end, like we see in Egypt. Best positioned are countries devoid of independent middle class or using foreign labor, like in Gulf countries.

The other way is to avoid building civil society is to make youth and intellectual classes critically dependent on state support. This is quite possible in a monopolized oligarchic economy. The reasons that youth rebelled in Taksim and Tahrir is because they are either have independent incomes (like in Brazil or Turkey), or educated but jobless (Egypt). If these are people are provided secure jobs by the state machine, they will keep silent. Countries which will do that can safely survive any uprising and continue their stability, especially with oil income (Iran or Sauidi).

Alternative is chaos. Harder to do for Egypt in the absence of this income and strength of MB, Oil money from Saudi Arabia can help a bit. Best alternative of course would be to have either too many or too little of the middle class to avoid instability.But unfortunately this recipe for instability is upon us. Only trouble is ahead.

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