On the unreliability of future projections

Submitted by Anon (Israel), Aug 23, 2016 at 18:56

This article includes a quote from 2007: "My work, and that of Prof. Sergio Della Pergola [of the Hebrew University], reveal a similar picture in Israel. By the year 2020, the ultra-Orthodox population of Israel will double to one million and make up 17% of the total population."

This is belied by the August 2016 update: "by 2014 that figure had risen to 11.1%. ... By 2024, the study predicts, haredim will make up 14% of the Israeli population".

While the trend is clear, the speed appears to be exaggerated.

This does however raise a question: if ultra religious have far more babies, why were the majority of Jews secular until recently, when did this happen?

Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments".