Take a step back...

Submitted by Tough Call (United States), Jan 15, 2005 at 16:12

There is a simple, fundamental problem with such analyses. Any Arab leader who truly wants peace and believes in peace can only declare as such from a position of strength. Sadat couldn't have made the peaceful overture to Israel until/unless he was firmly in control.

Given (a) today's sad state of Palestinian society and (b) the reality that Palestinian "cause" is simply a proxy for the larger war where the strings are all pulled from Tehran and Damascus, a new Palestinian leader who truly believed AND spoke of peace with Israel right now wouldn't be especially interesting or relevant--since he'd quickly be murdered. Today neither Abbas, nor any other potential Palestinian leader, has a strong enough hand or base to shut down the terrorist forces that rule Palestinian life.

Of course this is a dangerous game, and the hope/bet that Arafat was one potential "strong man" who really wanted peace--another Sadat--was a failure. But it's too soon to tell with Abbas. This could be a part of a longer-term scheme to build up support and a base before moving more explicitly toward a peaceful stance with Israel. Or not. But it's a little bit melodramatic to expect anything else from a leader that Israel and the US wants to see stay alive long enough to make a real difference.

---

Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments".