Anti-western dictatorships rival democracies as the most stable form of government

Submitted by stuffagain (United States), Mar 9, 2013 at 22:26

Dr. Pipes here calls attention to the longevity of the Syrian Baathists on the 50th anniversary of its ascent to power. This observation illustrates the more general point that anti-western dictatorships today rival democracies as the most stable form of government.

Consider the longevity of other anti-western dictatorships, either communist, Islamist or kleptocracy; Cuba, North Korea, China, North Vietnam, Iran, Venezuela and Zimbabwe. There is little prospect, in any of these nations, of internal pro-democratic forces prevailing on their own. In contrast, western-aligned dictatorships are an endangered species. Those of southern Europe (Spain, Greece, and Portugal) transitioned to democracy in the 70's. South American western-aligned dictatorships transitioned in the 80's and 90's. Failed Asian western-aligned dictatorships include South Korea, the Philippines and Iran (under the Shah).

Why the difference? The suppression of striving democratic movements requires a degree of savagery inconsistent with the values of the US and Europe, the large-power allies of western-aligned dictators. When the demonstrations arise these dictators find their efforts at suppression undermined. Obama's undermining of Mubarak, follows the pattern of Carter's undermining the Shah. In contrast, the large power allies of the anti-western dictators, China and the Russia, have no qualms or limits. The only interest China has in North Korea's prison camps is to consider how they compare to their own.

Therefore, when anti-western dictatorships fall it must always be because external forces unseat them. This is either by direct use of external forces as in Iraq and Afghanistan, or indirectly through extensive military support of insurgents as in Nicaragua in the 80's and recently in Libya.

Given this template, what is the prognosis for the rebellion against the anti-western Syrian dictatorship? Dr. Pipes believes it to be doomed. If so, it will only be due to the support provided by Sunni Islamist states to the rebels. Otherwise, the Baathists with support from Iran would have no trouble suppressing it.

A final thought. The struggle is analogous to the Spanish Civil War when the Communists squared off against the Fascists. It is hard for the west to find its dog in this fight.

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