Latest M. E. rundown 23 Sep. 2014

Submitted by Michael S. (United States), Sep 23, 2014 at 16:37

Hi, Lujack

I think you're pretty well keeping an eye on the players in the area -- something which I think we all find difficult to do nowadays. It's as though Israel is the pitcher, but the opposing "team" is wearing three different uniforms: one man is on first, the other on second and another at the plate. Should he be concerned about the team on second base stealing third? or on the batter's team getting a base hit? If he hits it out of the park, all three opposing teams score, and Israel loses. Outsiders, meanwhile, such as the US, France and Russia, are trying to be umpires while at the same time occasionally putting players into the game. None of these will score, of course; but they all get a share of the take at the gate. The three teams opposing Israel wear Turkish, Iranian and Saudi jerseys.

Libya: There are basically two grand coalitions -- (1) the recognized government in Tobruk, with its allied Haftar and Zintan militias (This coalition controls the oilfields), and (2) the Turkish-backed government in Tripoli and its allied "Islamic Emirate" in Benghazi, together with Al Qaeda affiliates among the Tuareg and others. Some of these purport to be loyal to Al Qaeda, some to the Caliphate; but they still all wear Turkish jerseys.

Tunisia: Interim government in transition from mainly Turkish-affiliated to mainly Saudi-affiliated

Algeria: Trying to be aloof; but it hosts an ISIS-affiliated terror group (Turkish jersey). The government is closely knit with Russia, which also backs the Iran clients elsewhere in the Middle East.

Morocco: Their major tiff is still with Algeria, a throwback to the Cold War era. They wear Saudi jerseys. They are on alert for attacks from Caliphate affiliates.

Egypt: Saudi jersey. They are fighting a joint Turkish- and Iranian-backed insurgency in Sinai, essentially the same coalition that Israel recently fought in Gaza.

Sudan: Was in an Iranian jersey; but recently seems to have changed it for a Turkish one. They are accused of aiding the "Libya Dawn" group that controls Tripoli, Libya.

Eritrea: A Christian nation, dictatorship, international pariah and source of countless emigrees throughout the region. They are accused of helping Iranian-backed Houtis in Yemen and Al Shabaab in Somalia, as well as providing anchorage for Iranian trans-shpment of arms to Sinai and Gaza.

Somalia: Western-leaning government propped up by African Union neighbors such as Djibouti, Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda and Burundi. These helpers, in turn, are attacked by Al Shabaab -- a group presumably linked to Al Qaed (read, "Turkish jersey"). AS has, however, attacked Turkish interests in Somalia, and is said to be armed by Iran.

Yemen: Iran backs the Houti rebels, who have just taken over the government. So much for Obama's "successful Yemen model" (HIs other "successful" model is Somalia). Al Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula (Turkish jersey) is waging a rebellion in the hinterland, while the retreating government forces are mainly Muslim Brotherhood (Turkish jersey). The fight between "Turkish-backed" (in my opinion) is similar to what is happening in Syria between Turkish-backed Al-Nusra and the Turkish-backed (though officially not so) Caliphate.

Syria: Turkish faction in its multiplicities (see the comment about Yemen), opposing the Iranian-, Russian- and Hizbullah-backed government. The Saudis have just joined the American "umpire" in bombing the Caliphate in Raqqa, and the al-Assad government applauds this. This puts Assad on the outs with Iran and Hizbullah, who have been his strongest backers; but meets the approval, apparently, of the Russians (who have an important naval facility in the country). Is this the beginning of a rift? And will Russia strangely find itself on the same side as the US? There's no way of knowing, because the President of the US seems to be something of a yo-yo who doesn't know from one day to the next, whose side he's on. The Kurds in the north are, at the moment, allied with their brothers in Iraq (see below).

Lebanon: The "March 8" government is on the side of Hizbullah, which wears an Iranian jersey.

Iraq: The government is a US-backed Iranian client. The US also backs the Kurds, who seem united, for the moment, both among themselves and with the Iranian- and US-backed government. Turkey seems to be losing clout among the Kurds. It is in a quandry, because it is at war with a Kurdish faction in Turkey. They are trying to effect a reconciliation, so things can get back to normal and they can have uninterrupted access to Kurdish oil. The Turks also continue to be a lifeline for the Caliphate, though they are officially neutral in the (manly Saudi-backed) US war against it. Over 100,000 Kurdish refugees have just poured into Turkey, fleeing the Caliphate army in Syria; and Kurdish fighters are going into Syria to fight the advancing enemy. We'll see how this one turns out. In my book, Turkey is still on the side of the Caliphate; but this may change. If not, then Kurdistan will probably be pulled into the Iranian orbit -- to the dismay of Israel.

These wars are also very connected with those going on in Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, as well as in Russia and China (The latter two produce the Iranian jerseys).

As I said, this is all hard to keep track of: I have to check every day, to see who's fighting whom lately.

Shalom shalom :-)

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