Turks, Iranians, Russians, ISIS and more

Submitted by Michael S. (United States), Sep 27, 2014 at 10:18

Hi, Lujack

I wonder if you know what a blessing it is, for me to be able to talk with you like this. The world has a funny idea about faith -- they think it's some nebulous thing, apart from reality. To you and I, though, it simply IS reality as we see it and as it is -- reality with God in the picture, reality that makes sense. I't unbelief that is shaky and ever-shifting; and imagining a reality withoug God in charge is downright horrifying.

I saw your comment at raptureforums.com. I don't believe in a premillennial, pre-tribulation rapture; but that site often has interesting posts on it.

You can follow the money, yes; but this only gives part of the picture. I try to follow everything: poll data, UN votes, treaties and alliances, participation in joint exercises (especially wars), investments, military sales, trade, etc. -- anything that draws nations together.

The connection that means the most to me, is the willingness of countries to put their children at risk in wars. In this respect, the US and its allies form, by far, the most cohesive force in history. Just look at all the countries we cajoled into joining us in Afghanistan. I will only list those who suffered casualties: Albania, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech R., Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Jordan, Latvia, Lithuania, NATO, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, UK, US

-- http://icasualties.org/oef/

Altogether, over 50 countries participated; and even the Russians gave us fly-over rights. Such cooperation is unparalleled in history. Some people look at George W. Bush as something of a failed President; but I don't think history will view him that way: In the immediate aftermath of 9/11, he was more feared in the world than any leader in history. Between then and his "Islam is Peace" speech, though, our country started down a slippery slope.

The US and its allies together control the majority of the wealth and firepower in the world; and the other countries are very fragmented. Russia and China, along with their respective spheres of influence, are next in line, together having about half the strength of the Western allies; but the two are nowhere near as together as we are. There is a big difference, between committing your troops to joint exercises, and fighting alongside one another in a war.

If one were to just consider trade figures, one would conclude that China and Europe rule the world. Let's look at some of our major allies:Canada: exports to and imports from US
Israel: exports to US, but imports from EU
UK: exports and imports to EU
France: ditto; Italy: ditto; Spain: ditto; Poland: ditto
Japan: China and China; S. Korea: China and China
Australia: China, EU
Taiwan: China, Japan

... and Turkey, which I do not consider a reliable ally, imports and exports mainly with the EU

(data from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_leading_trade_partners)

UN voting patterns are also worthy of consideration. In this category, the US and Israel stand solidly together, often joined by Canada and very few others. Our "Enduring Freedom" allies from the Afghanistan War are ambivalent, and the rest of the world generally votes solidly against us. Votes concerning Israel are especially lopsided; and, of course, there are plenty of them. That doesn't mean the non-Western world is united in any way, shape or form; it simply means that they agree on so little, condemning Israel is the only thing they can manage to get together for.

Concerning the Middle East, then, I follow the "blood trail" (as opposed to the money trail): Iran and Hizbullah have shed blood alongside Syria; and it will be an amazing day if and when they ever separate. Russia has a less vital interest: their naval repair facility at Tartus.

Israel's neighbors also have a "blood covenant" with one another: Hizbullah, Syria, Iraq, Jordan, Palestinian Arabs and Egypt have all fought alongside one another against Israel in the past. Some of them today are bitterly fighting with one another; but this can be ascribed to their especially violent nature.

To these can be added Muslim volunteers from around the world -- especially Libya, Tunisia, the GCC, Algeria, Sudan and Yemen. Again, they are much more prone to killing one another than to killing Jews. Also, there is a wide gulf between the governments of these volunteers and the citizenry. In most cases, they are diametrically opposed to one another.

Much has been said about the Sunni-Shi'a split. It is true, that Shi'ite Muslims seldom fight against one another, or even against separate sects such as the Ibadis, Zaidis, Alawis, etc. Sunnis, however, regularly have at it with one and all; and there are actually also secular Muslims. The most notable of the latter seems to be the Kurdish Peshmerga, whose female fighters remind me of the IDF.

That's my take on the world powers today. It's largely because of this analysis, that I count the US as the "little horn" of "The beast", which plucked up three notable horns (Germany, Italy and Japan -- in World War II). The rest of the "Ten horns" are likely the Colonial Powers, who divided the world among themselves before WWII: The British Empire, France, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands and Belgium. In this way, I have largely accounted for world history since the fall of Napoleon. Notable exceptions are Russia and the Ottoman Empire, which also were prominent powers (though not "colonialists" in their own eyes, they were certainly imperialists). I don't group them with the "Ten plus One", because they have not banded together to give their power and authority to the US-led "beast".

Turkey, Iran and minor players Sudan and Libya are outside ot the "beast" system, though they are a regional group that seriously threatens Israel. They are all also hot-to-trot to fight Israel, moreover, which the Russians and Chinese are not eager to do. I don't see them as needing Russia to lead them or even support them in an attack on Israel. The only thing I don't see in this group of four, is cohesiveness -- particularly between Turkey and Iran. The minute Turkey and Iran decide to cooperate with one another in war, I will check the news daily to see if Ezekiel 38-39 has broken out. Even so, remember that the prophet said brother would end up turning against brother; so I don't expect Turkey and Iran to get especially cozy (They haven't been, since the days of Croessus and Cyrus).

L'shannah tovah.

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