Difficulty to predict developments

Submitted by Werner (United States), May 7, 2005 at 22:39

It doesn't seem improbable that fundamentalist Islam has an inroad to rural (anatolian) turkish population. On the other hand I do believe that modern and educated turks have no will to accept fundamentalist islam idiology.

Who is going to wield the most influence is difficult to predict (at least for me).

I can understand that Erdogans aim is to alienate turks to the west and connect himself more with Syria and maybe Saudi Arabia and use at the same time the (mostly rural) immigrants in Germany as a leverage to wield power. (There are certain organizations and news papers ((Milli Goerus)) who do that).

On the other hand what has Turkey to expect from Syria/Saudi Arabia? What economic adavantages does it have to associate with those countries? Is that economic reason or is it religious reason to do so?

From my point of view Turkey has no alternativ to prosper (unless it can prosper by itself what I don't believe) then to join the european economy. It can do so, but the price is the islamic nature of Turkey.With Erdogan not willing to pay the price it is the next election which is going to decide a lot. Whatever the decision is it seems to me that a civil war in Turkey is an option/possibility.

So what can the USA do?

The USA faces a dilemma. Either it keeps Turkey as an ally and disregards all human rights violations of Turkey or it sticks to it's principals and says to what is worng 'WRONG!'..

From my point of view the USA will try to keep Turkey as an ally (The reason isn't really obvious to me, as Turkey was important in the cold war as a missile base for the Sowjet Union but today that is a minor point) and very quietly say 'wrong'. (if at all).

So the question is: what does the USA need the turks for?

So far, it can make the EU some trouble to promote turks to join the EU, but what is that good for?

It also could try to use Turkey as a model islam secularist State for the rest of the islmaic world. But I guess that role is given rightfully to Iraq.

Turkey might be good to keep a wrath over the kurds to not have their own state and also as an alternative to show Iranians how it could be with an alliance with the US.


It might be good for the US to promote the entrance of Turkey to the EU (let them pay the price for the economic development of that country) and at the same time keep all channels open to Turkey and influence the neighbor states through Turkey.

greetings

W.

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