Ho-hum again.

Submitted by Michael S (United States), May 1, 2015 at 19:58

Hi, Tovey

The Iranians have a considerable fleet of ships, which Israel would have to deal with in a major confrontation. At present, they have an old frigate and a replenishment ship on station at the south end of the Red Sea. That seems to be a token presence. More worrisome are their submarines with Air-independent propulsion. Of more concern than any Iranian ships, is the massive buildup of dozens of navies from all parts of the world, off the coast of Yemen. These could cause problems for Israeli naval maneuvers on the Indian Ocean side of things. The Russians and Chinese plan joint naval maneuvers in the Mediterranean next month (May 2015). I imagine that a priority would be practice not bumping into one another, in an area that everyone seems to be sending ships to.

Iran and Hizbullah seem to be interested in kicking off hostilities in the Golan, where "stray" shells are already landing in Israel. The Americans and Russians, meanwhile, are rumored at secretly working out a deal to carve up Syria into "control areas". That could free up Iranian-allied forces for a move against israel.

Nothing clear seems to be happening on the iran nuke deal. Is everyone planning a surprize?

Meanwhile, Israeli PM Binyamin Netanyahu's main task at hand seems to be bargaining with various potential coalition partners about cabinet seats. As long as that's foremost in his mind, I don't think we'll see Israel initiating any major foreign policy moves. I think it's up to the Iranian side, to initiate hostilities Do they want to start a Golan version of Gaza 2013? or a Shi'ite Tet Offensive?

Pretty ho-hum, if you ask me. Oh well.

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