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Ho-hum again.

Reader comment on item: How Much Can Air Power Achieve?
in response to reader comment: Accuracy Limited in Horseshoes, Hand Grenades and Nuclear Ambitions

Submitted by Michael S (United States), May 1, 2015 at 19:58

Hi, Tovey

The Iranians have a considerable fleet of ships, which Israel would have to deal with in a major confrontation. At present, they have an old frigate and a replenishment ship on station at the south end of the Red Sea. That seems to be a token presence. More worrisome are their submarines with Air-independent propulsion. Of more concern than any Iranian ships, is the massive buildup of dozens of navies from all parts of the world, off the coast of Yemen. These could cause problems for Israeli naval maneuvers on the Indian Ocean side of things. The Russians and Chinese plan joint naval maneuvers in the Mediterranean next month (May 2015). I imagine that a priority would be practice not bumping into one another, in an area that everyone seems to be sending ships to.

Iran and Hizbullah seem to be interested in kicking off hostilities in the Golan, where "stray" shells are already landing in Israel. The Americans and Russians, meanwhile, are rumored at secretly working out a deal to carve up Syria into "control areas". That could free up Iranian-allied forces for a move against israel.

Nothing clear seems to be happening on the iran nuke deal. Is everyone planning a surprize?

Meanwhile, Israeli PM Binyamin Netanyahu's main task at hand seems to be bargaining with various potential coalition partners about cabinet seats. As long as that's foremost in his mind, I don't think we'll see Israel initiating any major foreign policy moves. I think it's up to the Iranian side, to initiate hostilities Do they want to start a Golan version of Gaza 2013? or a Shi'ite Tet Offensive?

Pretty ho-hum, if you ask me. Oh well.

Submitting....

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Reader comments (24) on this item

Title Commenter Date Thread
Air strikes will not work [174 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
PrashantJun 5, 2015 13:41223694
where is this going? [60 words]FrankzApr 9, 2015 00:21222770
1Not quite accurate [164 words]yuvalApr 8, 2015 05:11222749
1Winning is possible [83 words]BamagujeApr 10, 2015 21:09222749
Accuracy Limited in Horseshoes, Hand Grenades and Nuclear Ambitions [302 words]M. ToveyApr 17, 2015 15:24222749
Ho-hum again. [282 words]Michael SMay 1, 2015 19:58222749
The Hum of Running Silent- Running Deep [323 words]M. ToveyMay 6, 2015 13:05222749
It really is ho-hum lately. Caliphate not radical enough? [230 words]Michael SMay 7, 2015 21:45222749
Marxist Leadership of the West in Agreement With Marxist Papacy-Aire Superiority of a Different Sortie [107 words]M. ToveyMay 13, 2015 15:30222749
Mom and Apple Pie [528 words]Michael SMay 15, 2015 04:32222749
Mowing the Grass [434 words]Michael SMay 29, 2015 03:53222749
Control of Gaza is a chimera [28 words]BG DavisJun 29, 2015 14:05222749
Air war [32 words]WallyApr 6, 2015 23:33222697
What's the end-game, if survival is the issue? [166 words]JIMJFOXApr 6, 2015 22:50222693
1Dan is right but only for conventional air power [134 words]YususfApr 6, 2015 21:33222690
Israel can eliminate Iran's threat, using conventional weapons. [161 words]Michael SMay 15, 2015 12:19222690
1Also, unstable dictatorships prefer to use air forces [169 words]John in Michigan, USAApr 6, 2015 18:20222689
Wars and relativism. [76 words]steven LApr 6, 2015 17:01222687
What About Gaza? What About State-Sponsors? [178 words]AlexApr 6, 2015 16:42222686
Continuous Warfare [161 words]Michael SApr 6, 2015 16:14222685
Vietnam bombing ? [27 words]KaiserDerdenApr 6, 2015 15:49222683
Air Superiority Does Not Ensure Conquest - For it is the Expensive (Therefore Limited) Option [353 words]M. ToveyApr 6, 2015 15:38222681
settled long ago [79 words]Larry SeltzerApr 6, 2015 15:25222680
Of course [85 words]Lars NielsenApr 6, 2015 15:17222677

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