Erdogan is, and likely will continue to be, absolutely in control -- even after the election

Submitted by Michael S (United States), Jun 12, 2015 at 14:00

HI, Havas.

The results of the election are that Erdogan's AK Party got 41'% of the vote; and the three opposition parties do not agree much with each other. Erdogan has instructed PM Davutoglu to form a government -- with or without governing partners, apparently. One party, the MHP, has not ruled out joining AKP in a governing coalition; but most commentators seem to doubt the prospects of this: they believe Erdogan will seek new elections. By scaring the people (his forte, it seems) and mass arrests, he might pull off a victory; or he can stir up so much dissent that he "has to" take over as a dictator.

Erdogan's bag of tricks is far from empty; and I wonder if anyone in Turkey, including MHP's Devlet Bahçeli, can come anywhere near the Dark Leader in popularity. Bahçeli certainly has no taste for sitting on the same side of the aisle as the mainly Kurdish HDP, which he would need to be a partner with in order to claim a majority coalition. Erdogan is a Hitler-like charismatic kook, from all I see and read; and remember that Hitler came to power from a minority position.

To answer your question, I agree with Daniel Pipes' pre-election prediction: Erdogan is and will probably stay in charge, no matter what the election results are.

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