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War with Israel, suicide for Damascus

Reader comment on item: Israel and Syria going to war?

Submitted by Chris G. (United States), Jun 19, 2007 at 21:16

I seriously doubt that there is even a remote chance of war between Syria and Israel. So far there has not been a lot of incidents amongst Arabs living in the occupied Golan heights areas. Furthermore, even with the addition of the new Mig-31 fighters from Russia (finally agreed up during Assad's recent trip to Moscow), their armed forces are still using obsolete Russian tactics unless they have been getting new training from Iran or other nations.

On the ground, the vast majority of Syria's armored forces are obsolete T-55, T-62, and T-72 Russian made tanks with perhaps a few protected by ERA (likely older ERA and not the latest Russian Kontakt-5 ERA). Likewise their airforce, aside from Mig-29's and the new Mig-31's (which will take them a while to train on) is fairly obsolete and is controlled by fixed ground radar rather then mobile systems and AWACS aircraft. Another factor is that economically, they are not doing really well and simply could not afford to rebuild their military forces again. They are only barely now recovering from the losses they took in 1982 and before that in the Yom Kippur War.

The most potent defense they have are the Kornet and similar tandem-warhead ATGM's used to deadly effect by Hezbollah (supplied by Syria and Iran) in Lebanon. They also provided the RPG-7VR tandem warhead RPG-7 variant and the RPG-29 Vampire (the biggest RPG made by Russia). Both of these can do serious dammage to even a Merkava Mk4 if it is hit in the rear or side. However the IDF has now prioritized testing and installation of the new "Triumph" anti-RPG/ATGM system on their tanks which will neutralize most of this threat.

Finally, Syria seems to finally be cracking down on insurgents infiltrating across their borders. Secretary Rice has stated recently that they have made satisfactory progress in that area. Awhile back also their was a amateur terrorist attack on the US embassy there in which it seemed that it was staged by Assad with Syrian forces literally across the street from the attack. The attackers were easily killed by the Syrian Army and the Syrian media tried to portray their army as saving the Americans. It was ridiculed in the Western mediia, however what most analysts don't seem to get is that Assad and his government seem desperate for Western respect and dialogue (as well as trade). They don't want to be isolated and a war with Israel would just wipe out their economy and possibly cause enough instability to allow Islamists to topple the Baathist government setting the stage for another "Al-Qaeda playground" like Iraq has become.

So, hopefully neither Israel nor Syria is stupid enough to try and start a conflict. It would be devestating for Syria and very dangerous for Israel to have a radical Islamist party take over Syria.

On a religious issue, having Islamists come to power in Israel would also probably lead to the destruction of some of the most ancient Christian communities and churches in the world as we are seeing now in Iraq where most have fled to Syria and ancient churches are being systematically destroyed by Sunni extremists. So in a nutshell, war between Israel and Syria would be bad for everyone.

Chris G.

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Reader comments (39) on this item

Title Commenter Date Thread
THE BACKSTABBING MIDDLE EAST ! [363 words]jack backermanSep 8, 2007 06:39108238
Zakir naik [51 words]Dirk PittmanSep 8, 2007 01:47108202
7 DEADLY SINS OF GEORGE W BUSH: [585 words]Ernesto RibeiroJul 14, 2007 13:44103669
You are right about clinton! [297 words]jackSep 22, 2007 21:16103669
Syria announced a July 15th deadline for Syrians to leave Lebanon... [761 words]James VesceJul 12, 2007 14:58103526
the root of war against terrorism is rich iranians in usa and other countries accross the globe! [346 words]zari namdarJul 6, 2007 10:18103107
2To... Zari Namdar [1699 words]Aria M.Jul 10, 2008 13:47103107
To Arya M,From: An XXX Iranian {now 100%American} [340 words]zari namdarJul 11, 2008 02:32103107
To Zahra Namdar, a.k.a Iranian Hater [1669 words]Aria M.Jul 13, 2008 18:05103107
1heheheh [31 words]kivancJan 19, 2009 08:33103107
1Let's work instead of beeing jealous [39 words]FredFeb 20, 2010 21:52103107
You are wrong [106 words]MaryJun 21, 2010 00:11103107
1bullshit [42 words]PersianAthiestDec 28, 2010 00:19103107
DIRECTOR [84 words]SASANJun 12, 2013 22:13103107
End Times War? [52 words]Clifford IshiiJun 20, 2007 17:4499719
Not only exciting... [2 words]JoshuaJun 21, 2007 22:1799719
Response to 'Endtime war?': [35 words]Matthew 24Jul 21, 2007 08:4899719
War with Israel, suicide for Damascus [545 words]Chris G.Jun 19, 2007 21:1699580
Re: A bad Idea for everyone [225 words]JoshuaJun 20, 2007 17:0999580
Iran's involvement with Syria [808 words]Chris G.Jun 22, 2007 11:2799580
No war on the Golan Border [201 words]yuval Brandstetter MDJun 11, 2007 06:0997637
Ahmadinejad [81 words]JoshuaJun 10, 2007 21:4597617
Next Year in Jerusalem? [141 words]Rebecca MouldsJun 8, 2007 20:3297001
2Israel The Only Real Superpower In Middle East, Iran, Syria, Wanabees [124 words]AnneMJun 23, 2007 08:3897001
Bashar-al-Assad [83 words]Len MarkowitzJun 7, 2007 19:5496652
Is Assad that stupid? [55 words]Oscar NavarroJun 7, 2007 19:2096647
The passage of time [119 words]David W. LincolnJun 7, 2007 19:1796645
The problem with war [65 words]freemanJun 7, 2007 17:5396636
Dr. Pipes is Right unfortunately.- Deterrence in action. [278 words]YnnatchkahJun 7, 2007 17:2096634
hezbollah a factor [63 words]LEON ZEITZERJun 7, 2007 15:1596619
Incompetence has a way of generating unpredictability [59 words]RandyJun 7, 2007 13:4396483
Negotiating strategy? [32 words]Bobbie WenickJun 7, 2007 12:1196478
Israel and Syria diplomacy [224 words]jJun 7, 2007 10:1496466
Diplomacy and Mid-East don't mix. [177 words]Oscar NavarroJun 7, 2007 19:4396466
Diplomacy is only as good as the Diplomats [762 words]Chris G.Jun 30, 2007 23:4496466
Israeli leaders, weak or strong, inevitably make bad deals with the Arabs [428 words]Kenneth S. BesigJun 7, 2007 10:0096465
Frogs Luxuriating in a Large Pot of Warm Water, Over a High Flame. [619 words]marianaJun 9, 2007 11:5196465
1War necessary for peace? [655 words]Chris G.Jun 26, 2007 18:5096465
For Money, The Koran does not comdemn to have business with Jews. Palestinian's Scandal. [400 words]Ynna (tchakh)May 19, 2007 17:0193648

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