The Hazard of Misreading Egypt

Submitted by M. Tovey (United States), Dec 20, 2011 at 16:16

To draw to a conclusion that the Egyptian elections would lead to yet another continuation of an uprising based upon the influences of the Muslim Brotherhood is not one that should be so easily entertained. However, Egypt should definitely be watched for the changes in its government, carefully considering that if the military government did not maintain control, an uprising would be the potential hazard to extend the instability such an event would cause. But the military is apparently keeping a wary eye on such things for the sake of maintaining its power.

It is obvious though, that the engine of Egypt's course in its existence is its Islamism; something seen in the uprising where the Copts were cited for their alleged incitements towards democracy, an allegation determined to be discredited. Indeed, in Nero style, the Copts were falsely blamed for being central to the uprising and were instead persecuted to a greater extent for the sake of blame in the attempt to keep Mubarak in power. To that end, the military needed to re-exert its influences to keep Egypt from a complete disintegration and control wrested away.

As for Israel as Egypt's neighbor, the Israeli's still need to keep vigilant and prepared for the activities that have already increased as there appears to be a vacuum of security in the Sinai. Militant Gaza cannot help but carry out their continued attacks as the next few weeks of preparation by Israel's enemies develop. Egypt may not be central to an incursion into Israeli territory (one might wonder why since both times Egypt was on the losing end of such adventures); but Egypt can certainly play the foil during any other foreign agencies attempt to put Israel on the defensive further.

Egypt's elections will never lead to a fully secular (democratic) government; the empathies of the Muslim Brotherhood will never allow for that. Further, the military, in writing or having control of the writing of a new constitution will make sure they are never far from a leadership role, if for no other reason than self preservation. Since it has been observed that democracy as the world understands it does not work all that well in many Middle Eastern environments, it is very unlikely that the Egyptian military will ever submit to a full civilian government for that very reason. That leaves the door open to the other observance-the actual influences of the Islamic elements in the military and how they will respond when called upon.

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