If Teheran turns down the deal

Submitted by Edmond Beniacar (Australia), Aug 20, 2015 at 00:40

I do not believe the Mulahs will be silly enough to reject the deal. Rather, they are likely to put their own interpretation on the terms which will allow them to reject it de-facto without doing so de-jure.

That will allow them to stand before their populace, claim de-facto rejection, rightfully claim to have imposed its will on the oher side, established that they cannot be dictated to, and demonstrate that this rejection will not result in any retaliation from the West, further enhancing the visible power of Iran and give them a fairly free hand to do whatever they wish in the full knowledge that the 5 + 1 will never admiit to having been duped.

Of the 5 + 1 Russia and China will rejoice anyway since it opens wonderful trading opportunities for them (about 100 J-10 aircraft to start with). The others will spend time arguing and justifying their decision in the face of unpleasant reality. The Mullahs will in the meantime proceed along both practically and ideologically

This will be the case as long as the occupier of the Oval Office is afraid of his/her own shadow and will change when POTUS has the courage to set some very strong verifiable terms upon the Mullahs. It will take about 18 months for us to find out.

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