Turkey will be smoldering ashes.

Submitted by Michael S (United States), May 9, 2016 at 03:37

HI, Peter.

I think you've described the Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) pretty well. The KRG is a reactionary institution, a remnant of Iraqi Kurdish tribalism. Masoud Barzani holds the Presidency, by virtue of the fact that the government can't agree on legitimate elections. Barzanin has no mandate to be in power.

The only part of Kurdistan that seems to have any movement and life is the mostly-Communist PKK that is influential in the Resistance in Turkey and in the Syrian Kurdish Regional Government. This group is not hindered by the small-minded tribalism of the Iraqi KRG, nor by the fast-disappearing Sykes-Picot borders in the Middle East. They will fight ISIS, the Turks, the Americans, the Syrians, anyone they have to, to advance their agenda. The Turkish President, Erdogan, is madly driven to eradicate them and to subjugate the Kurds, among his many manias; so I don't see that conflict as having any definitive end until Turkey is smoldering ashes. The timeframe for this seems to be only a few years -- perhaps a decade.

ISIS/ Daesh, meanwile, will continue to exist in Iraq-Syria, in some form or another. Note that they are the ONLY effective government of the Sunni Arabs of those two countries -- and of Lebanon as well, if you consider that Hizbullah really runs the place. Besides ISIS, the Sunnis are backed by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait -- whether it be the Free Syrian Army, Al-Nusra, Da'esh or other militias. The names and groupings may change and re-change over time; but I expect that they will continue fighting well into the future.

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