No matter how things pan out, Israel will ultimately be in existential danger

Submitted by MIchael S (United States), Jul 17, 2016 at 18:40

Hello, This-year-in-Jerusalem ,Daniel :-)

I agree with your thesis; that, given the three options you state, #3 is most likely -- namely, the rise of anti-Islamist candidates in Europe, along with POSSIBLE nastiness.

I put a reservation on the extent to which this change will be violent and bitter -- especially when compared to the rampant violence and hatred we see already in Europe. The continent is headed for a period of change and temporary instability; but the ditching of over-optimistic, benighted governments in favor of more realistic parties may be a great relief for europeans in the short run. In this, I am probably being more optimistic than I should be; and you may very well see this more correctly than I.

Europe is undergoing a great change; but the inrush of migrants, the cultural confrontation with Islam and the increasingly frequent terror attacks play only a part in the big picture. Besides all these, remember that The Euro Zone still hasn't pulled out of the Sovereign Debt Crisis, which continues to threaten the demise of the common currency (Most recently, the front-runner in the Italian presidential race is calling for an exit from the Euro).

The success of Brexit, moreover, has shown us that a substantial number of Europeans, like the Brits, are disgusted with the "Democratic Deficit" of the EU; wherein Brussels oligarchs are increasingly make the laws instead of the citizens in the member countries. France's Nationalist Party candidate Marie LePen, pointedly supports a referendum in France for a "Frexit", or French exit from the EU -- a referendum which, polls indicate, would gain even more popular approval than the Brexit did in the UK. The far-left French Communist Party has also proposed France's leaving the international Trade group, in a move that mirrors the similar stance in the US between Nationalist Donald Trump and Socialist Bernie Sanders. As has happened also in the US, with Hillary Clinton giving lip service to opposing the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), so the French Conservative candidate (In France, "Conservatives" are as left-wing as "Liberals" in the US), Nicholas Sarkozy, has come out campaigning for a referendum as well.

The tearing down of the EU and Eurozone are probably of more lasting impact on the world than European anger at the Muslims. The US, Japan, Korea and Australia will not escape those events, because they ae paralleled with a move to reject the TPP. Because of their mutual defense ties with the US, these Pacific countries are scrambling for a new way to relate to one another, and to find a common raison d'etre.

The above great powers had been trying to create a "peacetime" union based on the TPP and its Atlantic counterpart, the TTIP -- a proposed trade deal between the US and the EU. Now, the "trade" aspect of it has taken a great beating, along with the reality of true "peace" in those countries and the world. The above countries still need to bond together for mutual support; but it is tending now away from multinational consortiums and back to bilateral treaty relationships between sovereign states -- with the United States -- in particular, the President of the US -- as the keystone.

With the collapse of the TPP, the way the great powers relate to the Third World will also probably change. The Trans-Pacific Partnership was extremely diverse, including the Muslim aristocracy of Brunei, impoverished Communist Vietnam and Narcotrafficocracies Mexico and Colombia. The European Union has also been reaching out to dictatorial and impoverished countries like the Ukraine and Moldova, and even working for binding trade ties to Africa. In both cases, there has been an effort to impose a Colonial-style relationship, reminiscent of the British and French Empires. With both world peace and world trade under attack, this "carrot and stick" approach is bound to be replaced by more of a direct, "gun-in-your-face" sort of diplomacy.

These new diplomatic realities bode well for Israel in the short run, because Israel has been hurt more than any other country by increasingly dictatorial internationalism (to the point of the "world community" trying to dictate when and where Israelis can add extra bathrooms to their homes). As long as the US is led by strongly pro-Israel presidents (such as Mr. Trump promises to be), the change will be for the good; but even so, the day is fast coming when the leaders of Israel's greatest protector will turn against its own client

In conclusion,

1. The rejection of Islam by the Europeans is only a part of a larger, more important picture, and
2. No matter how the world reshuffles itself after these events, Israel will eventually again come under grave, existential danger.

Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments".