We lie and then say that our prediction do not come true. (and Two predictions of mine that will come true)

Submitted by Prashant, Aug 10, 2017 at 16:27

Dear Dr Pipes,

Anyone who claims that the middle east is a graveyard of predictions makes me laugh. We speak with cowardice and lie and then say that our predictions do not come true. That is what is going on in the middle east.

Most countries in the world are not religious theocracies. The only exceptions to this rule are the Islamic countries that are still hoping that Islamic theocracies can provide a good way for people to live.
And the consequences are self evident. Most Islamic countries are suffering from violent movements that do not know a boundary in time or space and have a tendency to spread far and wide. On the contrary, most violent movements and battles in the non-Islamic world have a tendency to dissipate relatively quickly.

The reason our predictions about the Islamic world do not come true is that we make them with cowardice and falsehood. Either due to our false hopes or to our inability to depend on reasoning or just to get published, we say things that we know are not very likely to come true.

It should not take a PhD to make the following two predictions about middle east that WILL come true with high probability:

1. The next violent conflict in an Islamic country will be limited to a small region and will end soon if it is not deeply linked to the Islamic religion.

Any one who doubts me should do some search about the economic and labor unrests in almost any Islamic countries. They were as short-lived as you can imagine. There was a major labor unrest in the Pakistani city of Karachi, for example, in 1972 and it did not live to see 1973!

I can make this prediction with so much confidence because I know that giving a religious color to a secular issue, muddles everything. If we can keep the religion away from the places where it can be kept away, everything is simplified. When you mingle religion into secular issues, it becomes everyone's problem.

2. The first Muslim national leader in any Islamic country who boldly comes forward and says that she or he wants to bring true democracy to her or his people and extend the same democratic rights to non-Muslims residents and visitors as to Muslims, will be loved by his own people (muslims).

While the first prediction of mine was simple an easy, the second is of huge significance. I boldly predict that first Muslim leader who wants to bring true secular democracy to his people, will be loved by his own people. The position for a Gandhi or MLK in the Islamic world is available and open. Any one who applies for this job with honesty and earnestness will be loved till eternity by Muslims and non-Muslims. Are there any applicants? Does Bashar Al Assad want to become a Gandhi? Do Erdogan or even the king of Saudi Arabia want to become?

I think these are two predictions that are reasoned and truthful and significant. And they will both come true.

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