Selective facts make for questionable analysis

Submitted by Yair Weinstock (United States), Nov 28, 2005 at 17:10

While recognizing that previous 'escapist parties' were rarely led by pros, the key fact that none of them ever led in any poll should be considered. Also considered should be the anxiety in both Labor and Likud to minimize defections to Sharon's Kadima, to the point that Shimon Peres has yet to announce his allegiance to Labor, not to mention Ramon joining from labor, as well as the expected many Likudniks. Secondly, Kadima should be viewed in the context of the Israeli electorate: a Likud led by Netanyahu is unlikely to maintain the loyalty of Sephardi voters, and with Shinui losing favor it would seem appropriate to label the two leading parties as Center Right and Center Left, thus moving toward a contest that resembles Germany more than the Israeli political landscape of the 90s. While predicting the future in Israeli politics is a fool's errand, I have come to expect more thoughtful analysis ...

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