I foresee two surprise developments in my areas of study:
First, as indicated by the half of Austrians who recently voted for the Freedom Party's candidate for president, a rebellion is underway in Europe against permissive immigration and multiculturalism. Expect to see populist parties implement tough policies vis-à-vis Muslim populations, who will respond with anger and violence. Steady low-grade civil insurrection will follow, leading eventually to larger scale clashes. In the end, Muslims in substantial numbers, finding Europe uncongenial, will abandon it for Muslim-majority countries. I call this the "separation of civilizations."
 Norbert Hofer won 49.65 percent of the vote for president in May 2016. |
Second, the Islamist movement appears to be strong and growing, spanning a wide range of tactics from the fanatical murderousness of the Islamic State's caliphate to the increasing authoritarianism of Turkey's elected President Erdoğan. But, I predict, the movement will have much weakened in a decade. Two reasons mainly account for this decline: Islamists are ever-more inclined to engage in internecine strife (such as in Syria); and Muslim populations generally reject Islamist strictures when they experience these (think of Egyptians under Morsi). The overthrow of the Islamic Republic of Iran will culminate this decline, leading to a post-Islamist era.
Mr. Pipes is president of the Middle East Forum.
