Trump Plan

Submitted by IssacNewton (United States), Jan 29, 2020 at 23:13

I think Trump's Plan is basic power politics. It outlines what the territorial solution will be in around four years. It invites the PLO to negotiate about these maps and economic aid. Around 70% of the West Bank goes to the PLO (vs. 96% under Clinton). It detaches the PLO from their Arab Allies. The most likely outcome is the PLO will reject the plan, the plan will be implemented, and Israeli defenses act to both block attacks (Laser Based Iron Dome) and attack their sources. Alas, Arab politics is run on balanced opposition and tribal solidarity. There is an old Bedouin saying that summaries this kind of social organization:
"I against my brother, my brothers and I against my cousins, then my cousins and I against strangers.
~ Bedouin Proverb

You will Not get all the Agreements needed among the different social groups to agree to a peace deal. There will also be sub-groups who regularly attack Israel. You need to get a Tyrant to control all the different social groups. This can work for a while, but to make his power grow every Tyrant will eventually want to attack Israel. This just re-capitulates the Islamic/Arab/Tribal conquest of North Africa.

The agree will go into effect, but be enforced by the IDF. It will only reduce (a little) the International Support for a BDS/Anti-Israeli movements.

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