Demographic question still open and still important

Submitted by Pietru Caxaru (Luxembourg), May 22, 2007 at 09:29

So far it looks like Arabs won't constitute a majority of citizens with the lifetimes of most of us. However, the Statistical Abstract of Israel, 2006, is still projecting a major increase in Arab births as a percentage of Israeli births by 2025, relative to the current situation (in the medium variant, Arab children in the 0-4 years category would make up about 36% of all Israeli children in that age group). That Arabs may constitute over 30% of the Israeli population during our lifetimes is by no means inconceivable. It may be even more serious than that - it's difficult to tell for sure. Demographers have been arguing about this for years.

Of course, the above refers to the country as a whole rather than to Jerusalem specifically. I think that the most important question is who controls the State. As long as Jewish Israelis control the State, there are quite a number of things that can be done to affect the demographic outcome (territorial adjustments, immigration of non-Jews to boost the Jewish-affiliated non-Arab sector, better-targeted support for families, better integration of Arab sector etc).

As for Lebanon, one should not forget that the demise of Lebanon's Christian majority occurred partly due to the majority's lower birthrate, but also because of massive emigration of Maronites to Europe and the Americas - first for economic reasons and later - as their majority became thinner and thinner - simply in order to escape the coming disaster.

Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments".